Buckley Town host Porthmadog in the Wales: FAW Championship. Porthmadog's recent form is a storyline to watch, having won two of their last five matches, including a 1-0 victory over Rhyl. In contrast, Buckley Town have suffered five consecutive defeats, including a 1-2 loss to Llanuwchllyn. The model predicts an away win, with Porthmadog having a 53% chance of victory. The expected total goals is 4.3, with a high-scoring match anticipated. The most likely score is a 1-2 away win for Porthmadog, with a probability of 7.7%. Buckley Town's home form statistics show an average of 2.17 goals scored and 2.58 conceded against similar opponents. Porthmadog's away form statistics show an average of 2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against similar opponents. The model's selections are Over 1.5 (93.2%), Over 2.5 (79.8%), and BTTS Yes (76.8%). Buckley Town have a 27% chance of winning, a 20% chance of drawing, and a 53% chance of losing.
The draw between Buckley Town and Porthmadog has extended Buckley Town's run of consecutive draws to six games, with both teams coming off a draw in their last outing. The final score was 1-1, resulting in a draw for both teams. The model's selection, Porthmadog away win, was wrong, as it had a pre-match probability of 53%. The model's call was incorrect, as the actual result was a draw. The model's selection of Porthmadog away win had a pre-match probability of 53%. The model's other selections were Over 1.5, which hit, and Over 2.5, which missed, both with high probabilities of 93.2% and 79.8% respectively. BTTS Yes also hit, with a probability of 76.8%.
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 2.47 | 2.21 | 2.79 | 1.19 | 2.19 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.86 | 2.71 | 2.40 | 3.20 | 1.36 | 2.27 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.22 | 1.89 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 2.10 | 1.00 | 2.11 | 1.73 | 2.09 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 3.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.32 | 2.16 | 1.00 | 2.21 | 1.73 | 2.09 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.50 | 1.75 | 0.50 | 1.75 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 7% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
| Porthmadog goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.3% |
| 1 | 1.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.0% |
| 2 | 2.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% |
| 3 | 1.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 1.14 | 0.62 | 0.81 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.81 | 1.24 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 0.64 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.73 | 0.58 | 0.63 | 0.73 | 0.91 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.68 | 0.84 | 0.64 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 1.50 | 1.29 | 1.64 | 0.56 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.05 | 1.48 | 1.40 | 1.60 | 0.73 | 1.36 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.56 | 1.56 | 1.00 | 1.75 | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 1.37 | 0.42 | 1.47 | 1.00 | 1.18 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.64 | 1.32 | 0.36 | 1.43 | 1.00 | 1.18 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.25 | 1.75 | 0.25 | 1.75 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 93.2% | 1.10 | 1.12 | 1.08 | - | - | - | +13.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 79.8% | 1.40 | 1.44 | 1.43 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.33 | +15.5% | ✗ Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 76.8% | 1.36 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.29 | - | +11.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 09/03/24 | A | 1-3 | |
| 28/08/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 07/02/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 19/11/22 | H | 3-1 |
Buckley Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 13/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-6 | |
| 27/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 3-0 |
Porthmadog| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 13/12/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/11/25 | H | 3-2 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 24/09/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 20/09/25 | H | 1-4 | |
| 19/10/24 | H | 0-2 | |
| 21/09/24 | A | 1-6 | |
| 19/04/24 | H | 0-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |