The contest between Budapest Honved and Gyori ETO FC is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 35% for a home victory, 29% for a draw and 36% for an away triumph, making the latter the most likely outcome. On average the match should see about 2.6 goals, with the most probable total being two, a 26% chance. The single scoreline the model sees as most likely is 1-1, with a 13.8% probability.
Budapest Honved, playing at home against a stronger side, has averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Gyori ETO FC, on the road against a weaker opponent, has averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.08 conceded.
The suggested selections are Over 1.5 goals at 74.5% and Under 3.5 goals at 73.6%. These are the only model picks, each with its own probability. The match remains finely balanced, with no clear favourite beyond the slight edge for the visitors.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Budapest Honved overturned the pre-match favourite, Gyori ETO FC, to win 2-1, extending their recent win streak. The model had tipped an away win with a 36% probability, but that call was wrong. The model’s selections proved solid: Over 1.5 goals, with a 74.5% chance, hit; Under 3.5 goals, at 73.6%, also hit. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 (26%) did not materialise, and the actual total of three goals fell outside the predicted 2-goal range. Overall, the prediction model delivered a correct outcome on the total-goals picks but missed the favourite and the final score.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Budapest Honved win✓ Hit
34.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gyori ETO FC win✗ Miss
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Budapest Honved
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.43
1.27
1.40
0.80
1.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
2.29
1.33
1.67
0.25
2.75
vs Similar (23)
1.13
1.17
1.25
1.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Gyori ETO FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gyori ETO FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.27
1.21
1.29
1.12
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.20
2.20
0.50
2.50
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.16
1.08
1.33
1.08
1.00
1.08
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Budapest Honved) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.5%
Under 1.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.2%
Under 2.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.4%
Under 3.5
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.2%
No
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
8.5%
1-0
8.3%
1-2
8.2%
2-1 ✓
8.1%
0-2
6.4%
2-0
6.2%
Budapest Honved goals ↓
Gyori ETO FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
8.5%
6.4%
2.8%
0.9%
1
8.3%
14%
8.2%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.2%
8.1%
5.3%
2.3%
0.8%
3
2.6%
3.5%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Budapest Honved goals (down), columns = Gyori ETO FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nyiregyhaza
2.32
Gyori ETO FC
2.03
Vasas
1.97
Szeged 2011
1.76
Kozarmisleny FC
1.53
Gyirmot SE
1.44
Soroksar
1.32
Kazincbarcikai
1.29
Budafoki LC
1.29
Budapest Honved
1.29
Csakvar
1.26
Ajka
1.26
Szombathelyi Haladas
1.12
BVSC
1.12
Pécsi MFC
1.06
Tiszakecske FC
1.00
Siofok
0.91
MTE 1904
0.62
Budapest Honved is 0.74 points worse than Gyori ETO FC in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vasas
2.12
Nyiregyhaza
2.03
Gyori ETO FC
1.91
Kozarmisleny FC
1.62
Gyirmot SE
1.44
Szombathelyi Haladas
1.24
Csakvar
1.15
Soroksar
1.15
Budapest Honved
1.15
Kazincbarcikai
1.09
Budafoki LC
1.09
Siofok
1.06
Szeged 2011
1.03
Tiszakecske FC
0.97
Ajka
0.88
MTE 1904
0.85
BVSC
0.79
Pécsi MFC
0.59
Budapest Honved is 0.76 goals worse than Gyori ETO FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Szeged 2011
0.68
Nyiregyhaza
0.79
Vasas
0.97
Ajka
0.97
Budapest Honved
1.06
Gyori ETO FC
1.09
Pécsi MFC
1.15
Tiszakecske FC
1.18
BVSC
1.18
Kazincbarcikai
1.21
Budafoki LC
1.29
Soroksar
1.29
Gyirmot SE
1.32
Csakvar
1.32
Kozarmisleny FC
1.32
Szombathelyi Haladas
1.53
Siofok
1.76
MTE 1904
2.03
Budapest Honved is 0.03 goals better than Gyori ETO FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Budapest Honved
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
0.86
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.42
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Gyori ETO FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gyori ETO FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.50
0.43
0.57
0.38
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.00
0.60
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
0.48
0.48
0.50
0.50
0.46
0.46
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Budapest Honved) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Budapest Honved over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Budapest Honved over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Budapest Honved over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyori ETO FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyori ETO FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyori ETO FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Budapest Honved
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.87
1.00
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.43
1.33
1.33
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.74
0.75
0.92
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Gyori ETO FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gyori ETO FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
0.79
0.71
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.20
1.60
0.50
1.50
1.67
1.67
vs Weaker (25)
0.68
0.60
0.83
0.58
0.54
0.62
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Budapest Honved) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Budapest Honved over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Budapest Honved over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Budapest Honved over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyori ETO FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyori ETO FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyori ETO FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Budapest Honved · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dominik Csontos50%
Ádam Szamosi50%
Ákos Baki33%
Tamás Somogyi25%
Ádam Somogyi25%
Szilveszter Hangya0%
Zoltán Medgyes0%
Deian Boldor0%
Patrik Pinte0%
Adi Alić0%
Istvan Mark Pekar0%
Ákos Zuigéber0%
Kevin Kállai0%
Tomáš Tujvel0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Deian Boldor50%
Szilveszter Hangya25%
Dominik Csontos25%
Kevin Kállai25%
Zoltán Medgyes0%
Ákos Baki0%
Patrik Pinte0%
Adi Alić0%
Istvan Mark Pekar0%
Tamás Somogyi0%
Ádam Somogyi0%
Ádam Szamosi0%
Ákos Zuigéber0%
Tomáš Tujvel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dominik Csontos50%
Tamás Somogyi25%
Ákos Zuigéber25%
Szilveszter Hangya0%
Zoltán Medgyes0%
Ákos Baki0%
Deian Boldor0%
Patrik Pinte0%
Adi Alić0%
Istvan Mark Pekar0%
Ádam Somogyi0%
Ádam Szamosi0%
Kevin Kállai0%
Tomáš Tujvel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ádam Szamosi50%
Deian Boldor25%
Tamás Somogyi25%
Ákos Zuigéber25%
Szilveszter Hangya0%
Zoltán Medgyes0%
Ákos Baki0%
Patrik Pinte0%
Dominik Csontos0%
Adi Alić0%
Istvan Mark Pekar0%
Ádam Somogyi0%
Kevin Kállai0%
Tomáš Tujvel0%
Gyori ETO FC · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Željko Gavrić50%
Viktor Đukanović20%
Norbert Urblík20%
Marcell Huszár20%
Nfansu Njie20%
Samuel Petráš0%
Claudiu Bumba0%
Daniel Štefulj0%
Miljan Krpić0%
Ádám Umathum0%
Ádám Décsy0%
Márton Szép0%
Bálint Selyem0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Miljan Krpić40%
Norbert Urblík40%
Márton Szép40%
Claudiu Bumba20%
Viktor Đukanović20%
Samuel Petráš0%
Daniel Štefulj0%
Željko Gavrić0%
Marcell Huszár0%
Nfansu Njie0%
Ádám Umathum0%
Ádám Décsy0%
Bálint Selyem0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Štefulj40%
Željko Gavrić25%
Samuel Petráš0%
Claudiu Bumba0%
Viktor Đukanović0%
Miljan Krpić0%
Norbert Urblík0%
Marcell Huszár0%
Nfansu Njie0%
Ádám Umathum0%
Ádám Décsy0%
Márton Szép0%
Bálint Selyem0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Željko Gavrić25%
Viktor Đukanović20%
Nfansu Njie20%
Samuel Petráš0%
Claudiu Bumba0%
Daniel Štefulj0%
Miljan Krpić0%
Norbert Urblík0%
Marcell Huszár0%
Ádám Umathum0%
Ádám Décsy0%
Márton Szép0%
Bálint Selyem0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GEF (28)
€16m
NYI (29)
€7m
VAS (28)
€7m
BH (25)
€5m
KAZ (19)
€2m
S2 (23)
€2m
BVS (17)
€2m
AJK (20)
€2m
KF (19)
€2m
TF (18)
€1m
SOR (17)
€1m
CSA (11)
€1m
Budapest Honved's squad is €11m less valuable than Gyori ETO FC's (€5m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GEF (10)
€7m
NYI (13)
€3m
VAS (11)
€3m
BH (6)
€1m
SOR (7)
€1m
TF (8)
€1m
KAZ (7)
€1m
AJK (5)
€1m
BVS (5)
€0m
KF (6)
€0m
S2 (6)
€0m
CSA (3)
€0m
Budapest Honved's attack is €6m less valuable than Gyori ETO FC's (€1m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GEF (6)
€4m
VAS (7)
€2m
NYI (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
BVS (5)
€1m
KAZ (4)
€0m
S2 (5)
€0m
TF (5)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
KF (4)
€0m
SOR (4)
€0m
AJK (2)
€0m
Budapest Honved's midfield is €3m less valuable than Gyori ETO FC's (€1m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GEF (12)
€5m
NYI (11)
€3m
BH (14)
€3m
VAS (10)
€2m
KAZ (8)
€1m
S2 (12)
€1m
AJK (13)
€1m
KF (9)
€1m
BVS (7)
€1m
SOR (6)
€0m
TF (5)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
Budapest Honved's defence is €3m less valuable than Gyori ETO FC's (€3m vs €5m).
Hungary: NB II 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB II stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Nyiregyhaza
Vasas
Szeged 2011
Kozarmisleny FC
Gyirmot SE
Soroksar
Kazincbarcikai
Budafoki LC
Ajka
Csakvar
Szombathelyi Haladas
BVSC
Pécsi MFC
Tiszakecske FC
Siofok
MTE 1904