The contest between Buducnost Podgorica and Arsenal Tivat feels razor-thin, with the model pointing to a home win as the most likely outcome. Buducnost’s recent draw against Bokelj suggests they are still finding rhythm, yet their home form shows an average of 2.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker opposition. Arsenal, coming off a defeat to Otrant-Olympic, struggles away, averaging just 1.0 goal scored and conceding 2.0 against stronger teams. The expected total of 3.1 goals hints at an open game, but the most probable total is 2, with a 23% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.8% probability. Probabilities for the match result read 41% for a home win, 26% for a draw and 34% for an away win. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries an 82.8% chance, the only suggested pick in this preview.
Results analysis
Buducnost Podgorica’s recent form, a draw that extended their run, set the stage for a home victory that the Pythia model predicted correctly. The model’s favourite, a Home win, carried a 41% probability and it indeed finished 2-0, confirming the selection. The model also chose Over 1.5 goals with an 82.8% chance, and that hit as well. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not achieved, but the 2-0 result still fell within the expected total of 3.1 goals, with 2 goals being the most probable outcome at 23%. Overall, the predictions aligned well with the match outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Buducnost Podgorica win✓ Hit
40.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Buducnost Podgorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.94
1.78
0.89
1.22
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.31
1.23
1.57
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
0.20
2.50
0.50
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tivat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.43
2.00
1.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
0.00
4.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (11)
1.82
1.18
1.40
0.80
2.17
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
21% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.8%
Under 1.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.1%
Under 2.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.8%
Under 3.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.2%
No
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.9%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.2%
2-0 ✓
6.0%
0-0
5.5%
0-1
5.5%
Buducnost Podgorica goals ↓
Arsenal Tivat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
5.5%
4.8%
2.4%
0.9%
1
6.2%
12%
7.9%
3.9%
1.4%
2
6.0%
8.8%
6.5%
3.2%
1.2%
3
3.3%
4.8%
3.5%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.3%
2.0%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Buducnost Podgorica goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tivat goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.94
Sutjeska
1.94
Arsenal Tivat
1.39
Dečić
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.31
Mornar
1.26
Petrovac
1.25
Jezero
1.19
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.11
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.86
Kom
0.50
Berane
0.00
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.56 points better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
2.08
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Petrovac
1.39
Dečić
1.22
Jedinstvo
1.19
Arsenal Tivat
1.08
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.03
Kom
1.00
Jezero
0.97
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.92
Mornar
0.89
Berane
0.00
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.61 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sutjeska
0.94
Buducnost Podgorica
1.03
Dečić
1.03
Jezero
1.06
Mornar
1.08
Arsenal Tivat
1.08
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.50
Kom
1.50
Petrovac
1.58
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.61
Berane
2.00
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.06 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Buducnost Podgorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.61
0.28
0.67
0.33
0.56
0.22
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.31
0.57
0.29
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.20
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
78% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tivat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.50
0.14
0.57
1.14
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.27
0.20
0.20
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
64% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Buducnost Podgorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
0.67
1.11
0.56
0.67
0.78
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.92
1.00
0.71
0.33
1.17
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
56% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tivat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
1.00
0.86
0.86
0.86
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.91
1.20
0.60
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
36% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica's squad is €2m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Arsenal Tivat have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Arsenal Tivat have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica's defence is €1m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€2m vs €0m).
Montenegro: First League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sutjeska
Dečić
Mornar
Jedinstvo
Petrovac
Jezero
Rudar (Montenegro)
Iskra (Montenegro)
Kom
Berane