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Buducnost Podgorica vs Dečić Result & Analysis

Date: 23/02/2023
Time: 17:00
Final 1-0
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
Vs
44%
31%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, as both sides have conceded roughly one goal per match against similar opposition. The model favours a home win, with a 44% chance, followed by a 31% draw and a 25% away win. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a tight game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3% probability. Buducnost Podgorica, playing at home, averages 1.57 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against equal-strength teams, while De čić, on the road, averages 0.88 for and 0.88 against. The suggested pick is Under 3.5 goals at 81.6%. The home win probability is 44%, the draw 31%, and the away win 25%. The model’s selection for Under 3.5 goals carries an 81.6% chance.

Results analysis

The match saw Buducnost Podgorica extend their recent form, coming off a draw and securing a 1-0 win over Dečić, who were on a four-game winning streak. The Pythia model’s pre-match favourite, a Home win at 44 percent, proved correct, as the final score of 1-0 confirmed the actual result. The model’s single selection, Under 3.5 goals with an 81.6 percent probability, hit, matching the low-scoring outcome. With the most likely score of 1-0 and a 28 percent chance for the 2-goal total, the prediction aligned well with the on-field reality. Overall, the favoured result landed and the model’s picks largely came in.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Buducnost Podgorica win✓ Hit
43.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dečić win✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-333D00D21W10W20W10W21W21W03L11DH·PET09/10A·DEČ15/10H·RUD22/10A·SUT30/10H·ARS06/11A·JED12/11H·JEZ27/11A·MOR03/12A·ISK07/12A·PET18/02
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.460.961.820.821.151.08
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.251.311.571.001.001.56
vs Weaker (8)1.880.252.250.501.500.00
Clean sheet %46% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DečićDečić

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D11D11D12L21W01L00D01L02LA·ISK09/10H·BUD15/10H·PET22/10A·RUD30/10H·SUT06/11A·ARS12/11H·JED26/11A·JEZ03/12A·MOR10/12H·ISK18/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.141.551.361.000.91
vs Stronger (2)1.001.501.002.001.001.00
vs Similar (16)1.121.121.381.380.880.88
vs Weaker (4)2.001.002.501.001.501.00
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.2%
Under 1.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.1%
Under 2.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.4%
Under 3.5
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.0%
No
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0 ✓
12.8%
0-0
12.2%
2-0
9.1%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
4.7%
Buducnost Podgorica goals ↓
Dečić goals →
01234
012%8.8%4.7%1.4%0.3%
113%14%6.0%1.8%0.4%
29.1%8.4%3.9%1.2%0.3%
33.9%3.6%1.7%0.5%0.1%
41.3%1.2%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Buducnost Podgorica goals (down), columns = Dečić goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.94
Sutjeska
1.94
Arsenal Tivat
1.39
Dečić
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.31
Mornar
1.26
Petrovac
1.25
Jezero
1.19
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.11
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.86
Kom
0.50
Berane
0.00
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.56 points better than Dečić in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.39).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
2.08
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Petrovac
1.39
Dečić
1.22
Jedinstvo
1.19
Arsenal Tivat
1.08
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.03
Kom
1.00
Jezero
0.97
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.92
Mornar
0.89
Berane
0.00
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.47 goals better than Dečić in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.22).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sutjeska
0.94
Buducnost Podgorica
1.03
Dečić
1.03
Jezero
1.06
Mornar
1.08
Arsenal Tivat
1.08
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.50
Kom
1.50
Petrovac
1.58
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.61
Berane
2.00
Buducnost Podgorica and Dečić are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.03).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D01L10W10W00D01L10W01L10WH·PET09/10A·DEČ15/10H·RUD22/10A·SUT30/10H·ARS06/11A·JED12/11H·JEZ27/11A·MOR03/12A·ISK07/12A·PET18/02
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.580.290.640.360.540.23
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.620.310.570.290.670.33
vs Weaker (8)0.500.250.750.500.250.00
Clean sheet %75% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DečićDečić

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D01L01L11D10W00D00D00D00DA·ISK09/10H·BUD15/10H·PET22/10A·RUD30/10H·SUT06/11A·ARS12/11H·JED26/11A·JEZ03/12A·MOR10/12H·ISK18/02
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.590.550.640.730.550.36
vs Stronger (2)0.501.000.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (16)0.500.500.500.750.500.25
vs Weaker (4)1.000.501.500.500.500.50
Clean sheet %55% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W00D20W00D10W10W20W11D02L01LH·PET09/10A·DEČ15/10H·RUD22/10A·SUT30/10H·ARS06/11A·JED12/11H·JEZ27/11A·MOR03/12A·ISK07/12A·PET18/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.880.671.180.450.620.85
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.621.001.000.710.331.22
vs Weaker (8)1.380.001.500.001.250.00
Clean sheet %54% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DečićDečić

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W10W01L11D01L00D01L02LA·ISK09/10H·BUD15/10H·PET22/10A·RUD30/10H·SUT06/11A·ARS12/11H·JED26/11A·JEZ03/12A·MOR10/12H·ISK18/02
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.680.590.910.640.450.55
vs Stronger (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (16)0.620.620.880.620.380.62
vs Weaker (4)1.000.501.000.501.000.50
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Dečić have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Dečić have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Dečić have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Dečić have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
BP wins
1
Draws
1
DEČ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Buducnost Podgorica vs Dečić · H/A from BP
DateH/AGameScore
15/10/22ADečić Vs BP0-0
07/08/22HBP Vs Dečić0-2

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/02/23APetrovac Vs BP1-1
07/12/22AIskra (Montenegro) Vs BP3-0
03/12/22AMornar Vs BP1-2
27/11/22HBP Vs Jezero2-1
12/11/22AJedinstvo Vs BP0-1
06/11/22HBP Vs Arsenal Tivat2-0
30/10/22ASutjeska Vs BP0-1
22/10/22HBP Vs Rudar (Montenegro)2-1
15/10/22ADečić Vs BP0-0
09/10/22HBP Vs Petrovac3-3

DečićDečić

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/02/23HDEČ Vs Iskra (Montenegro)0-2
10/12/22AMornar Vs DEČ1-0
03/12/22AJezero Vs DEČ0-0
26/11/22HDEČ Vs Jedinstvo0-1
12/11/22AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ1-2
06/11/22HDEČ Vs Sutjeska1-2
30/10/22ARudar (Montenegro) Vs DEČ1-1
22/10/22HDEČ Vs Petrovac1-1
15/10/22HDEČ Vs Buducnost Podgorica0-0
09/10/22AIskra (Montenegro) Vs DEČ0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLD1.88
HomeLDWWW2.27
AwayWWWLD1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%73%38%
AVG goals2.422.642.23
Over 1.5 %75%91%62%
Over 2.5 %42%45%38%
Over 3.5 %17%9%23%
Scored1.461.821.15
Conceded0.960.821.08
BTTS38%36%38%
Clean Sheet46%45%46%
Corners10.008.5011.50
Cards5.678.004.50
Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLL1.32
HomeDDLLL1.09
AwayDDWDL1.55
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%27%36%
AVG goals2.412.911.91
Over 1.5 %73%82%64%
Over 2.5 %45%55%36%
Over 3.5 %18%27%9%
Scored1.271.551.00
Conceded1.141.360.91
BTTS55%64%45%
Clean Sheet27%18%36%
Corners10.0011.009.00
Cards4.003.005.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SutjeskaSutjeska3670
56%
1.9
7534+41
3.0
86%
64%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.10.9
-
2Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3670
56%
1.9
6137+24
2.7
75%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.71.0
-
3DečićDečić3650
33%
1.4
4437+7
2.2
67%
42%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.0
-
4Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3650
36%
1.4
3939+0
2.2
58%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.11.1
-
5MornarMornar3848
34%
1.3
3441-7
2.0
53%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.1
-
6JedinstvoJedinstvo3647
36%
1.3
4354-11
2.7
69%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
-
7PetrovacPetrovac3645
31%
1.2
5057-7
3.0
78%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.6
-
8JezeroJezero3643
28%
1.2
3538-3
2.0
61%
42%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.1
-
9Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3842
26%
1.1
3953-14
2.4
63%
50%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
10Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)3631
19%
0.9
3358-25
2.5
78%
58%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.6
-
11KomKom21
0%
0.5
23-1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12BeraneBerane20
0%
0.0
04-4
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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