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Buducnost Podgorica vs Mornar Result & Analysis

Date: 17/09/2022
Time: 17:00
Final 2-0
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
Vs
56%
26%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Buducnost Podgorica are the clear favorites, with a 56% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 18% for Mornar to come away with a victory. The model expects an average of 2.6 goals, with the most likely total being two, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Buducnost, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, have been scoring 1.5 goals per game while conceding only 0.75, whereas Mornar, on the road, average one goal scored and 2.5 conceded. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 74.3% and Under 3.5 goals at 73.7%. The model’s selections also list the probability of a home win, a draw and an away win, but the only outcome with the highest likelihood remains the home side’s victory.

Results analysis

The match saw Buducnost Podgorica extend their recent form after a draw, while Mornar remained unbeaten in their last five. The model’s favourite was a Home win, with a 56% probability, and this call proved correct as Buducnost won 2-0. The predicted 2-goal total also materialised, and the model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 1.5 goals hit with a 74.3% chance, and Under 3.5 goals hit with a 73.7% probability. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the Home win and the most likely scoreline of 2-0, aligning with the model’s expectations. All suggested picks settled as predicted, underscoring the model’s reliable forecast.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Buducnost Podgorica win✓ Hit
55.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mornar win✗ Miss
18.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L21W24L02L10W20W11D40W30W00DA·BRE21/07H·BRE28/07A·PET31/07H·DEČ07/08A·RUD16/08H·SUT20/08A·ISK24/08A·ARS28/08H·JED04/09A·JEZ11/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.581.001.800.601.431.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.381.501.500.751.252.25
vs Weaker (4)2.000.003.000.001.670.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L21W12L22D13L10W00DH·DEČ24/07A·RUD30/07H·SUT06/08A·ARS16/08H·JED20/08A·JEZ27/08H·PET04/09H·ISK11/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.881.251.000.800.672.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.831.170.750.501.002.50
vs Weaker (2)1.001.502.002.000.001.00
Clean sheet %25% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.0%
Under 2.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.3%
Under 3.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-0
11.7%
2-0 ✓
10.9%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.6%
3-0
6.3%
3-1
5.5%
0-1
5.5%
Buducnost Podgorica goals ↓
Mornar goals →
01234
08.6%5.5%2.9%0.9%0.2%
112%12%5.0%1.5%0.3%
211%9.7%4.3%1.3%0.3%
36.3%5.5%2.4%0.7%0.2%
42.7%2.4%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Buducnost Podgorica goals (down), columns = Mornar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.94
Sutjeska
1.94
Arsenal Tivat
1.39
Dečić
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.31
Mornar
1.26
Petrovac
1.25
Jezero
1.19
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.11
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.86
Kom
0.50
Berane
0.00
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.68 points better than Mornar in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.26).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
2.08
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Petrovac
1.39
Dečić
1.22
Jedinstvo
1.19
Arsenal Tivat
1.08
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.03
Kom
1.00
Jezero
0.97
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.92
Mornar
0.89
Berane
0.00
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.80 goals better than Mornar in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 0.89).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sutjeska
0.94
Buducnost Podgorica
1.03
Dečić
1.03
Jezero
1.06
Mornar
1.08
Arsenal Tivat
1.08
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.50
Kom
1.50
Petrovac
1.58
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.61
Berane
2.00
Buducnost Podgorica is 0.05 goals better than Mornar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W11D00D00D00D10W10W20W00DA·BRE21/07H·BRE28/07A·PET31/07H·DEČ07/08A·RUD16/08H·SUT20/08A·ISK24/08A·ARS28/08H·JED04/09A·JEZ11/09
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.750.171.000.000.570.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.750.250.750.000.750.50
vs Weaker (4)0.750.002.000.000.330.00
Clean sheet %83% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D20W00D00D01L10W00DH·DEČ24/07A·RUD30/07H·SUT06/08A·ARS16/08H·JED20/08A·JEZ27/08H·PET04/09H·ISK11/09
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.380.250.600.200.000.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.500.330.750.250.000.50
vs Weaker (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %75% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L11D13L02L10W20W01L30W10W00DA·BRE21/07H·BRE28/07A·PET31/07H·DEČ07/08A·RUD16/08H·SUT20/08A·ISK24/08A·ARS28/08H·JED04/09A·JEZ11/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.830.800.600.861.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.621.250.750.750.501.75
vs Weaker (4)1.250.001.000.001.330.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L12L22D12L00D00DH·DEČ24/07A·RUD30/07H·SUT06/08A·ARS16/08H·JED20/08A·JEZ27/08H·PET04/09H·ISK11/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.000.400.600.671.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.330.830.000.251.002.00
vs Weaker (2)1.001.502.002.000.001.00
Clean sheet %38% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Mornar have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Mornar have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Mornar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Buducnost Podgorica and Mornar have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
BP wins
0
Draws
0
MOR wins

Head-to-head

Buducnost Podgorica vs Mornar · H/A from BP
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/09/22AJezero Vs BP0-0
04/09/22HBP Vs Jedinstvo3-0
28/08/22AArsenal Tivat Vs BP0-4
24/08/22AIskra (Montenegro) Vs BP1-1
20/08/22HBP Vs Sutjeska2-0
16/08/22ARudar (Montenegro) Vs BP0-1
07/08/22HBP Vs Dečić0-2
31/07/22APetrovac Vs BP4-2
28/07/22HBP Vs Breidablik2-1
21/07/22ABreidablik Vs BP2-0

MornarMornar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/09/22HMOR Vs Iskra (Montenegro)0-0
04/09/22HMOR Vs Petrovac1-0
27/08/22AJezero Vs MOR3-1
20/08/22HMOR Vs Jedinstvo2-2
16/08/22AArsenal Tivat Vs MOR2-1
06/08/22HMOR Vs Sutjeska2-1
30/07/22ARudar (Montenegro) Vs MOR1-0
24/07/22HMOR Vs Dečić0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWD1.75
HomeWWLWW2.40
AwayLWDWD1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%80%29%
AVG goals2.582.402.71
Over 1.5 %83%100%71%
Over 2.5 %42%40%43%
Over 3.5 %25%0%43%
Scored1.581.801.43
Conceded1.000.601.29
BTTS33%20%43%
Clean Sheet50%60%43%
Corners10.008.5011.50
Cards5.678.004.50
Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWD1.00
HomeLWDWD1.60
AwayLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%40%0%
AVG goals2.121.802.67
Over 1.5 %50%40%67%
Over 2.5 %50%40%67%
Over 3.5 %25%20%33%
Scored0.881.000.67
Conceded1.250.802.00
BTTS50%40%67%
Clean Sheet25%40%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SutjeskaSutjeska3670
56%
1.9
7534+41
3.0
86%
64%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.10.9
-
2Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3670
56%
1.9
6137+24
2.7
75%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.71.0
-
3DečićDečić3650
33%
1.4
4437+7
2.2
67%
42%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.0
-
4Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3650
36%
1.4
3939+0
2.2
58%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.11.1
-
5MornarMornar3848
34%
1.3
3441-7
2.0
53%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.1
-
6JedinstvoJedinstvo3647
36%
1.3
4354-11
2.7
69%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
-
7PetrovacPetrovac3645
31%
1.2
5057-7
3.0
78%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.6
-
8JezeroJezero3643
28%
1.2
3538-3
2.0
61%
42%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.1
-
9Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3842
26%
1.1
3953-14
2.4
63%
50%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
10Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)3631
19%
0.9
3358-25
2.5
78%
58%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.6
-
11KomKom21
0%
0.5
23-1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12BeraneBerane20
0%
0.0
04-4
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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