This opponent (Leeds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leeds
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.47
1.60
0.93
1.73
2.00
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.80
0.50
0.50
1.67
2.67
vs Similar (23)
1.57
1.48
1.67
1.00
1.45
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
0.50
3.00
1.00
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.4%
Under 1.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.4%
@ 1.76-6.2%
Under 2.5
51.6%
@ 2.11+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.8%
No
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.6%
0-1
12.6%
1-1 ✓
11.4%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
8.4%
0-3
7.8%
1-3
5.9%
1-0
4.5%
Burnley goals ↓
Leeds goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
13%
13%
7.8%
3.6%
1
4.5%
11%
9.6%
5.9%
2.7%
2
2.1%
3.9%
3.6%
2.2%
1.0%
3
0.5%
1.0%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burnley goals (down), columns = Leeds goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Manchester City
2.45
Liverpool
2.42
Chelsea
1.95
Tottenham
1.87
Arsenal
1.82
Manchester United
1.53
West Ham
1.47
Leicester
1.37
Brighton
1.34
Wolves
1.34
Newcastle
1.29
Crystal Palace
1.26
Brentford
1.21
Aston Villa
1.18
Southampton
1.05
Everton
1.03
Leeds
1.00
Burnley
0.92
Watford
0.61
Norwich
0.58
Burnley is 0.08 points worse than Leeds in terms of average points per game (0.92 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.61
Liverpool
2.47
Chelsea
2.00
Tottenham
1.82
Leicester
1.63
Arsenal
1.61
West Ham
1.58
Manchester United
1.50
Aston Villa
1.37
Crystal Palace
1.32
Brentford
1.26
Newcastle
1.16
Southampton
1.13
Everton
1.13
Brighton
1.11
Leeds
1.11
Wolves
1.00
Watford
0.89
Burnley
0.89
Norwich
0.61
Burnley is 0.21 goals worse than Leeds in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liverpool
0.68
Manchester City
0.68
Chelsea
0.87
Tottenham
1.05
Wolves
1.13
Brighton
1.16
Crystal Palace
1.21
Arsenal
1.26
West Ham
1.34
Burnley
1.39
Aston Villa
1.42
Brentford
1.47
Manchester United
1.50
Leicester
1.55
Newcastle
1.63
Everton
1.74
Southampton
1.76
Watford
2.03
Leeds
2.08
Norwich
2.21
Burnley is 0.68 goals better than Leeds in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 2.08).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
68%
Liverpool
63%
Chelsea
62%
Brighton
55%
Arsenal
53%
Manchester United
52%
Tottenham
52%
Leeds
52%
Leicester
52%
Crystal Palace
51%
West Ham
48%
Southampton
47%
Aston Villa
46%
Brentford
44%
Norwich
43%
Watford
41%
Newcastle
40%
Burnley
40%
Everton
39%
Burnley is 12.5 percentage points worse than Leeds in terms of average possession (40% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Burnley
For 6.2 · Against 6.8 · Total 13.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 8.9 · Total 17.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leeds
For 6.5 · Against 5.4 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 12.1 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burnley
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (40)
10.9
10.1
11.8
2.1
2.0
2.2
20.6
20.2
20.9
vs Stronger (15)
9.3
7.4
10.9
1.7
1.7
1.6
19.8
19.9
19.8
vs Similar (25)
11.9
11.5
12.3
2.4
2.2
2.7
21.0
20.4
21.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
68%
55%
80%
15%
5%
25%
35%
40%
30%
% under line
32%
45%
20%
85%
95%
75%
65%
60%
70%
This opponent (Leeds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leeds
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (40)
11.6
11.2
12.0
3.0
3.4
2.6
22.4
23.1
21.9
vs Stronger (8)
12.2
14.0
10.5
2.9
3.2
2.5
22.8
23.5
22.0
vs Similar (30)
11.4
10.5
12.3
3.1
3.5
2.7
22.5
22.9
22.1
vs Weaker (2)
12.0
11.0
13.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
20.5
24.0
17.0
% over line
65%
65%
65%
28%
30%
25%
65%
75%
55%
% under line
35%
35%
35%
72%
70%
75%
35%
25%
45%
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Leeds
11.6
Burnley
10.9
Leicester
10.5
Everton
10.5
Aston Villa
10.4
Chelsea
10.4
Wolves
10.3
Liverpool
10.3
Newcastle
10.2
Brighton
10.2
Norwich
10.1
Arsenal
10.0
Watford
10.0
Southampton
10.0
Crystal Palace
9.9
Tottenham
9.8
Manchester City
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
West Ham
9.3
Brentford
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aston Villa
3.8
Tottenham
3.5
Manchester United
3.5
Everton
3.4
Newcastle
3.4
Arsenal
3.2
Watford
3.2
Leicester
3.2
Wolves
3.1
Norwich
3.1
Brentford
3.1
Southampton
3.0
Leeds
3.0
Manchester City
2.9
Brighton
2.8
Chelsea
2.8
Crystal Palace
2.6
West Ham
2.6
Liverpool
2.5
Burnley
2.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aston Villa
26.6
Watford
25.6
Brentford
25.3
Norwich
24.4
Tottenham
24.2
Southampton
22.7
Manchester United
22.6
Leeds
22.4
Crystal Palace
22.2
Leicester
22.1
Wolves
21.5
Newcastle
21.2
Chelsea
21.1
Everton
20.9
Brighton
20.8
Burnley
20.6
Arsenal
19.8
Liverpool
19.6
Manchester City
19.5
West Ham
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.3%
Under 9.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
12.8%
Under 3.5
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
16.7%
Under 21.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Burnley
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.47
0.67
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.08
0.83
0.20
1.00
0.00
0.71
vs Similar (18)
0.94
0.61
0.60
0.50
1.38
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Leeds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leeds
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.67
0.67
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.91
0.67
0.75
0.45
1.09
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burnley over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burnley over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burnley over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leeds over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leeds over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leeds over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Burnley
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.40
0.87
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.83
0.60
0.80
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.56
0.30
0.90
0.25
0.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Leeds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leeds
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.60
0.93
0.27
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (23)
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.91
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burnley over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burnley over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burnley over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leeds over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leeds over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leeds over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5 cards
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 21.5 fouls
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Burnley · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zian Flemming50%
Josh Laurent20%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Marcus Edwards0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Ugo Raghouber0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oliver Sonne33%
Zian Flemming25%
Josh Laurent20%
Marcus Edwards20%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Ugo Raghouber0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Max Alleyne33%
Jacob Bruun Larsen20%
Marcus Edwards20%
Kyle Walker0%
Connor Roberts0%
Josh Laurent0%
Zian Flemming0%
Mike Trésor0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Ugo Raghouber0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Zian Flemming75%
Aaron Ramsey25%
Josh Laurent20%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Marcus Edwards0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Ugo Raghouber0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Leeds · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dominic Calvert-Lewin33%
James Justin33%
Anton Stach33%
Ethan Ampadu0%
Jayden Bogle0%
Harry Wilson0%
Joe Rodon0%
Noah Okafor0%
Brenden Aaronson0%
James Trafford0%
Tarik Muharemović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Ampadu33%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin33%
Jayden Bogle0%
Harry Wilson0%
Joe Rodon0%
James Justin0%
Noah Okafor0%
Brenden Aaronson0%
James Trafford0%
Anton Stach0%
Tarik Muharemović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ethan Ampadu0%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin0%
Jayden Bogle0%
Harry Wilson0%
Joe Rodon0%
James Justin0%
Noah Okafor0%
Brenden Aaronson0%
James Trafford0%
Anton Stach0%
Tarik Muharemović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ethan Ampadu0%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin0%
Jayden Bogle0%
Harry Wilson0%
Joe Rodon0%
James Justin0%
Noah Okafor0%
Brenden Aaronson0%
James Trafford0%
Anton Stach0%
Tarik Muharemović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
BUR (28)
€115m
NOR (34)
€107m
WAT (22)
€88m
LEI (22)
€69m
Burnley's squad is €312m less valuable than Leeds's (€115m vs €427m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
NOR (10)
€46m
WAT (6)
€28m
LEI (7)
€20m
Burnley's attack is €96m less valuable than Leeds's (€70m vs €166m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
NOR (11)
€31m
LEI (4)
€13m
BUR (3)
€8m
Burnley's midfield is €90m less valuable than Leeds's (€8m vs €98m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
EVE (10)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
NOR (13)
€29m
WAT (10)
€22m
Burnley's defence is €127m less valuable than Leeds's (€37m vs €163m).
England: Premier League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
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Manchester City
Liverpool
Chelsea
Tottenham
Arsenal
Manchester United
West Ham
Leicester
Brighton
Wolves
Newcastle
Crystal Palace
Brentford
Aston Villa
Southampton
Everton
Watford
Norwich