This opponent (Norwich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Norwich
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.07
1.80
1.00
1.33
1.13
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
3.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (19)
1.42
0.84
1.44
0.89
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
2.71
0.57
3.25
0.25
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
59.6%
Under 1.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
31.2%
@ 1.96-17.6%
Under 2.5
68.8%
@ 1.87+17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.5%
Under 3.5
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.2%
No
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0 ✓
15.5%
1-1
14.8%
0-1
13.3%
1-0
11.6%
0-2
7.6%
1-2
7.0%
2-1
6.2%
2-0
5.9%
Burnley goals ↓
Norwich goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
13%
7.6%
2.6%
0.7%
1
12%
15%
7.0%
2.4%
0.6%
2
5.9%
6.2%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
3
1.8%
1.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burnley goals (down), columns = Norwich goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Manchester City
2.45
Liverpool
2.42
Chelsea
1.95
Tottenham
1.87
Arsenal
1.82
Manchester United
1.53
West Ham
1.47
Leicester
1.37
Brighton
1.34
Wolves
1.34
Newcastle
1.29
Crystal Palace
1.26
Brentford
1.21
Aston Villa
1.18
Southampton
1.05
Everton
1.03
Leeds
1.00
Burnley
0.92
Watford
0.61
Norwich
0.58
Burnley is 0.34 points better than Norwich in terms of average points per game (0.92 vs 0.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.61
Liverpool
2.47
Chelsea
2.00
Tottenham
1.82
Leicester
1.63
Arsenal
1.61
West Ham
1.58
Manchester United
1.50
Aston Villa
1.37
Crystal Palace
1.32
Brentford
1.26
Newcastle
1.16
Southampton
1.13
Everton
1.13
Brighton
1.11
Leeds
1.11
Wolves
1.00
Watford
0.89
Burnley
0.89
Norwich
0.61
Burnley is 0.29 goals better than Norwich in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 0.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liverpool
0.68
Manchester City
0.68
Chelsea
0.87
Tottenham
1.05
Wolves
1.13
Brighton
1.16
Crystal Palace
1.21
Arsenal
1.26
West Ham
1.34
Burnley
1.39
Aston Villa
1.42
Brentford
1.47
Manchester United
1.50
Leicester
1.55
Newcastle
1.63
Everton
1.74
Southampton
1.76
Watford
2.03
Leeds
2.08
Norwich
2.21
Burnley is 0.82 goals better than Norwich in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 2.21).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
68%
Liverpool
63%
Chelsea
62%
Brighton
55%
Arsenal
53%
Manchester United
52%
Tottenham
52%
Leeds
52%
Leicester
52%
Crystal Palace
51%
West Ham
48%
Southampton
47%
Aston Villa
46%
Brentford
44%
Norwich
43%
Watford
41%
Newcastle
40%
Burnley
40%
Everton
39%
Burnley is 3.0 percentage points worse than Norwich in terms of average possession (40% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Burnley
For 5.9 · Against 6.5 · Total 12.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 8.2 · Total 17.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Norwich
For 4.1 · Against 7.0 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.6 · Against 13.9 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burnley
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (44)
10.9
10.1
11.7
2.3
2.3
2.4
20.2
20.1
20.2
vs Stronger (16)
9.4
7.9
10.9
1.8
1.9
1.6
19.6
19.5
19.8
vs Similar (28)
11.8
11.4
12.1
2.7
2.5
2.9
20.5
20.5
20.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
70%
59%
82%
18%
9%
27%
34%
41%
27%
% under line
30%
41%
18%
82%
91%
73%
66%
59%
73%
This opponent (Norwich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Norwich
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
11.0
9.3
3.1
3.2
3.0
24.2
23.0
25.3
vs Stronger (5)
10.4
11.0
10.0
3.0
4.5
2.0
19.8
19.0
20.3
vs Similar (34)
10.3
11.2
9.5
3.3
3.5
3.1
24.4
23.1
25.7
vs Weaker (11)
9.5
10.5
8.4
2.7
2.2
3.4
25.4
24.0
27.0
% over line
50%
56%
44%
42%
36%
48%
62%
56%
68%
% under line
50%
44%
56%
58%
64%
52%
38%
44%
32%
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Leeds
11.6
Burnley
10.9
Chelsea
10.8
Leicester
10.7
Liverpool
10.5
Aston Villa
10.5
Everton
10.4
Wolves
10.3
Watford
10.2
Brighton
10.2
Newcastle
10.2
Norwich
10.2
Southampton
10.1
Arsenal
10.1
Crystal Palace
10.0
Tottenham
10.0
Manchester City
9.9
Manchester United
9.7
West Ham
9.5
Brentford
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aston Villa
3.8
Tottenham
3.5
Newcastle
3.4
Manchester United
3.4
Watford
3.4
Everton
3.3
Wolves
3.3
Leicester
3.2
Arsenal
3.2
Leeds
3.2
Brentford
3.2
Norwich
3.1
Southampton
3.0
Brighton
2.9
Manchester City
2.9
Chelsea
2.8
Crystal Palace
2.7
West Ham
2.6
Liverpool
2.6
Burnley
2.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aston Villa
26.2
Watford
25.3
Brentford
24.9
Norwich
24.2
Tottenham
24.1
Southampton
22.5
Crystal Palace
22.5
Leeds
22.1
Manchester United
22.0
Leicester
21.7
Wolves
21.4
Newcastle
21.2
Chelsea
21.1
Brighton
20.8
Everton
20.6
Burnley
20.2
Arsenal
19.9
Liverpool
19.6
Manchester City
19.4
West Ham
18.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
57.2%
Under 9.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.5%
Under 3.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
20.5%
Under 21.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Burnley
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.38
0.69
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (11)
0.09
1.00
0.17
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.95
0.58
0.50
0.50
1.44
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Norwich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Norwich
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.40
1.07
0.27
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.95
0.26
0.89
0.22
1.00
0.30
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.57
1.75
0.25
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burnley over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burnley over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burnley over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Norwich over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Norwich over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Norwich over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Burnley
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.38
0.81
0.36
0.79
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.91
0.50
0.67
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.32
0.74
0.30
0.90
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Norwich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Norwich
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.73
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
2.25
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.58
0.56
0.67
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burnley over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burnley over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burnley over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Norwich over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Norwich over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Norwich over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 21.5 fouls
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Burnley · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zian Flemming50%
Josh Laurent20%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Marcus Edwards0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Ugo Raghouber0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oliver Sonne33%
Zian Flemming25%
Josh Laurent20%
Marcus Edwards20%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Ugo Raghouber0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Max Alleyne33%
Jacob Bruun Larsen20%
Marcus Edwards20%
Kyle Walker0%
Connor Roberts0%
Josh Laurent0%
Zian Flemming0%
Mike Trésor0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Ugo Raghouber0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Zian Flemming75%
Aaron Ramsey25%
Josh Laurent20%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Marcus Edwards0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Ugo Raghouber0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Norwich · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Touré40%
M. Kvistgaarden40%
Andre Brooks33%
Ben Chrisene20%
Anis Ben Slimane17%
P. Mattsson0%
H. Darling0%
K. McLean0%
S. Field0%
J. Stacey0%
Anthony Musaba0%
José Córdoba0%
Vladan Kovačević0%
Ruairi McConville0%
K. Fisher0%
O. Schwartau0%
Jacob Wright0%
P. Diallo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
José Córdoba80%
K. McLean40%
Andre Brooks33%
H. Darling25%
Ruairi McConville25%
J. Stacey20%
P. Mattsson17%
Anis Ben Slimane17%
S. Field0%
Anthony Musaba0%
Vladan Kovačević0%
Ben Chrisene0%
M. Touré0%
M. Kvistgaarden0%
K. Fisher0%
O. Schwartau0%
Jacob Wright0%
P. Diallo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Stacey40%
Anthony Musaba25%
K. McLean20%
José Córdoba20%
M. Touré20%
Jacob Wright20%
Andre Brooks17%
P. Mattsson0%
H. Darling0%
S. Field0%
Vladan Kovačević0%
Ben Chrisene0%
Anis Ben Slimane0%
M. Kvistgaarden0%
Ruairi McConville0%
K. Fisher0%
O. Schwartau0%
P. Diallo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Touré40%
K. Fisher33%
H. Darling25%
Anthony Musaba25%
K. McLean20%
O. Schwartau17%
Andre Brooks17%
P. Mattsson0%
S. Field0%
J. Stacey0%
José Córdoba0%
Vladan Kovačević0%
Ben Chrisene0%
Anis Ben Slimane0%
M. Kvistgaarden0%
Ruairi McConville0%
Jacob Wright0%
P. Diallo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
BUR (28)
€115m
NOR (34)
€107m
WAT (22)
€88m
LEI (22)
€69m
Burnley's squad is €8m more valuable than Norwich's (€115m vs €107m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
NOR (10)
€46m
WAT (6)
€28m
LEI (7)
€20m
Burnley's attack is €23m more valuable than Norwich's (€70m vs €46m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
NOR (11)
€31m
LEI (4)
€13m
BUR (3)
€8m
Burnley's midfield is €23m less valuable than Norwich's (€8m vs €31m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
EVE (10)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
NOR (13)
€29m
WAT (10)
€22m
Burnley's defence is €8m more valuable than Norwich's (€37m vs €29m).
England: Premier League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Liverpool
Chelsea
Tottenham
Arsenal
Manchester United
West Ham
Leicester
Brighton
Wolves
Newcastle
Crystal Palace
Brentford
Aston Villa
Southampton
Everton
Leeds
Watford