Burreli’s defensive record at home is shaky, conceding 1.6 goals on average against stronger opposition, while only scoring 0.8. Bylis, on the road, has been more resilient, keeping away goals low and scoring well versus tougher teams. The model sees a tight, low-scoring game, with the most likely outcome an away win. The probabilities are 28% for a home win, 33% for a draw, and 39% for an away win. The expected total goals is 2.1, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with 14.7% probability. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Under 5.5 (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 4.5 (94.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.3%), and Away +2 handicap (89.6%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Burreli win
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bylis win
39.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Burreli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.40
0.69
0.81
1.00
2.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
2.12
0.80
1.60
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (22)
0.91
1.14
0.64
0.45
1.18
1.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Bylis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bylis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.47
1.27
1.00
0.87
1.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.07
1.47
1.27
1.00
0.87
1.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
62.5%
Under 1.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
34.1%
Under 2.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.5%
Under 3.5
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.4%
No
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
14.0%
0-1
13.1%
1-0
10.4%
0-2
8.2%
1-2
7.6%
2-1
6.2%
2-0
5.5%
Burreli goals ↓
Bylis goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
13%
8.2%
3.1%
0.9%
1
10%
15%
7.6%
2.9%
0.8%
2
5.5%
6.2%
3.5%
1.3%
0.4%
3
1.7%
1.9%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burreli goals (down), columns = Bylis goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Oriku
1.23
Flamurtari
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
FK Kukesi
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Burreli is 0.10 points worse than Bylis in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Oriku
1.10
Flamurtari
1.10
Bylis
1.10
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.10
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Burreli
0.82
Burreli is 0.29 goals worse than Bylis in terms of goals scored per game (0.82 vs 1.10).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.94
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Oriku
1.23
Flamurtari
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Burreli
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
Burreli is 0.13 goals worse than Bylis in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.23).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Burreli or Draw
60.9%
Avg Implied -
28%
33%
39%
covers Burreli + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Burreli or Bylis
67.3%
Avg Implied -
28%
33%
39%
covers Burreli + Bylis
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bylis
71.8%
Avg Implied -
28%
33%
39%
covers Draw + Bylis
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Burreli over/under 0.5
Over
60.5%
Under
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5
Over
23.8%
Under
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 0.5
Over
67.9%
Under
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 1.5
Over
31.5%
Under
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 2.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Burreli, so a minus line means Burreli give that many goals of a start and Bylis receive them. At -1, Burreli must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Burreli win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Burreli)
Burreli -2
2.8%
Draw -2
7.6%
Bylis +2
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Burreli)
Burreli -1
10.4%
Draw -1
17.8%
Bylis +1
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Burreli)
Burreli +1
60.9%
Draw +1
22.2%
Bylis -1
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Burreli)
Burreli +2
83.1%
Draw +2
11.5%
Bylis -2
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Burreli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.43
0.19
0.38
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.32
0.23
0.18
0.09
0.45
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Bylis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bylis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.40
0.33
0.07
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.30
0.40
0.33
0.07
0.27
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burreli over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Burreli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.97
0.50
0.44
0.57
1.57
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.12
0.60
0.60
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.91
0.45
0.36
0.73
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bylis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bylis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.07
0.93
0.93
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.77
1.07
0.93
0.93
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burreli over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Albania: 1st Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →
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Korabi Peshkopi
Flamurtari
Oriku
Kastrioti Krujë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FK Kukesi
Sopoti Librazhd
Pogradeci
Besa Kavajë
Iliria Fushë-Krujë