PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Burreli vs Flamurtari Result & Analysis

Date: 29/10/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
Burreli
Burreli
Vs
27%
34%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Flamurtari
Flamurtari
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Burreli winâś“ Hit
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari winâś— Miss
39.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

BurreliBurreli

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L21W01L00D13L02L03L41W02L01LA·BES18/05H·POG26/05A·BYL02/09H·KAS13/09A·VOR18/09H·LUS23/09A·APO28/09H·BES02/10A·AF 08/10A·KOR22/10
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.071.200.530.471.60
vs Stronger (8)0.501.000.750.250.251.75
vs Similar (22)0.951.091.360.640.551.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlamurtariFlamurtari

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D12L11D01L00D21W40W00D21W21WH·APO23/05H·KOR28/05A·LUZ02/09H·BYL13/09A·KAS17/09H·VOR24/09A·LUS28/09H·APO02/10A·BES07/10H·AF 21/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.701.270.731.600.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.580.830.800.802.140.86
vs Weaker (18)1.330.611.500.701.120.50
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%16%025%128%218%39%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
59.2%
Under 1.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
30.8%
Under 2.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.3%
Under 3.5
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
39.5%
No
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.6%
1-1
14.7%
0-1
14.2%
1-0 âś“
10.9%
0-2
8.5%
1-2
7.3%
2-1
5.7%
2-0
5.2%
Burreli goals ↓
Flamurtari goals →
01234
016%14%8.5%3.1%0.8%
111%15%7.3%2.6%0.7%
25.2%5.7%3.1%1.1%0.3%
31.5%1.6%0.9%0.3%0.1%
40.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burreli goals (down), columns = Flamurtari goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
AF Elbasani
2.39
Bylis
2.15
Flamurtari
1.71
Vora
1.47
Apolonia Fier
1.43
Korabi Peshkopi
1.32
Burreli
1.21
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
Lushnja
1.21
Besa Kavajë
1.21
Luzi 2008
0.94
Tomori Berat
0.52
Luftëtari
0.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Burreli is 0.50 points worse than Flamurtari in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.71).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
2.30
Vora
1.88
Bylis
1.67
Apolonia Fier
1.37
Flamurtari
1.31
Kastrioti Krujë
1.30
Luzi 2008
1.24
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Lushnja
1.18
Besa Kavajë
1.09
Luftëtari
1.00
Burreli
0.85
Tomori Berat
0.64
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Burreli is 0.47 goals worse than Flamurtari in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flamurtari
0.83
Bylis
0.94
AF Elbasani
0.97
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.12
Burreli
1.30
Besa Kavajë
1.41
Kastrioti Krujë
1.42
Lushnja
1.56
Vora
1.59
Luzi 2008
1.70
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Tomori Berat
2.18
Luftëtari
3.00
Burreli is 0.47 goals worse than Flamurtari in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 0.83).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BurreliBurreli

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L00D00D02L01L02L20W01L00DA·BES18/05H·POG26/05A·BYL02/09H·KAS13/09A·VOR18/09H·LUS23/09A·APO28/09H·BES02/10A·AF 08/10A·KOR22/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.530.470.270.200.80
vs Stronger (8)0.000.620.000.250.001.00
vs Similar (22)0.450.500.640.270.270.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlamurtariFlamurtari

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W01L10W00D00D10W00D00D10W10WH·APO23/05H·KOR28/05A·LUZ02/09H·BYL13/09A·KAS17/09H·VOR24/09A·LUS28/09H·APO02/10A·BES07/10H·AF 21/10
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.170.600.200.600.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.830.080.400.001.140.14
vs Weaker (18)0.440.220.700.300.120.12
Clean sheet %83% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burreli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BurreliBurreli

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L20W01L00D11D01L01L21W01L01LA·BES18/05H·POG26/05A·BYL02/09H·KAS13/09A·VOR18/09H·LUS23/09A·APO28/09H·BES02/10A·AF 08/10A·KOR22/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.530.730.270.270.80
vs Stronger (8)0.500.380.750.000.250.75
vs Similar (22)0.500.590.730.360.270.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlamurtariFlamurtari

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D01L01L00D11D40W00D11D11DH·APO23/05H·KOR28/05A·LUZ02/09H·BYL13/09A·KAS17/09H·VOR24/09A·LUS28/09H·APO02/10A·BES07/10H·AF 21/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.530.670.531.000.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.750.750.400.801.000.71
vs Weaker (18)0.890.390.800.401.000.38
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burreli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.586.7%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (25)
€5m
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
LUF (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
LUF (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUF (8)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
BUR wins
1
Draws
1
FLA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Burreli vs Flamurtari · H/A from BUR
DateH/AGameScore
15/04/23HBUR Vs Flamurtari0-0
13/11/22AFlamurtari Vs BUR1-0

BurreliBurreli

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/10/23AKorabi Peshkopi Vs BUR1-0
08/10/23AAF Elbasani Vs BUR2-0
02/10/23HBUR Vs Besa Kavajë4-1
28/09/23AApolonia Fier Vs BUR3-0
23/09/23HBUR Vs Lushnja0-2
18/09/23AVora Vs BUR3-1
13/09/23HBUR Vs Kastrioti Krujë0-0
02/09/23ABylis Vs BUR1-0
26/05/23HBUR Vs Pogradeci2-1
18/05/23ABesa Kavajë Vs BUR3-0

FlamurtariFlamurtari

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/10/23HFLA Vs AF Elbasani2-1
07/10/23ABesa Kavajë Vs FLA1-2
02/10/23HFLA Vs Apolonia Fier0-0
28/09/23ALushnja Vs FLA0-4
24/09/23HFLA Vs Vora2-1
17/09/23AKastrioti Krujë Vs FLA0-0
13/09/23HFLA Vs Bylis0-1
02/09/23ALuzi 2008 Vs FLA1-1
28/05/23HFLA Vs Korabi Peshkopi1-2
23/05/23HFLA Vs Apolonia Fier1-1

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Burreli
Burreli
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.09
HomeWWDLW1.88
AwayLLLLL0.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%47%6%
AVG goals2.061.712.39
Over 1.5 %60%53%67%
Over 2.5 %34%18%50%
Over 3.5 %14%12%17%
Scored0.831.180.50
Conceded1.230.531.89
BTTS43%41%44%
Clean Sheet29%53%6%
Corners---
Cards---
Flamurtari
Flamurtari
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW1.72
HomeLLWDW1.68
AwayWDDWW1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %47%47%47%
AVG goals2.142.112.18
Over 1.5 %64%63%65%
Over 2.5 %42%47%35%
Over 3.5 %14%11%18%
Scored1.471.371.59
Conceded0.670.740.59
BTTS39%42%35%
Clean Sheet44%42%47%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3379
73%
2.4
7632+44
3.3
82%
64%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.31.0
-
2BylisBylis3371
67%
2.2
5531+24
2.6
73%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
3FlamurtariFlamurtari3560
46%
1.7
4629+17
2.1
57%
37%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.8
-
4Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3550
37%
1.4
4834+14
2.3
63%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.0
-
5VoraVora3450
44%
1.5
6454+10
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.91.6
-
6Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3445
35%
1.3
4238+4
2.4
56%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.1
-
7Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3441
32%
1.2
3748-11
2.5
68%
38%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.4
-
8LushnjaLushnja3441
32%
1.2
4053-13
2.7
79%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.6
-
9Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3340
30%
1.2
4347-4
2.7
73%
48%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.31.4
-
10BurreliBurreli3340
36%
1.2
2843-15
2.2
55%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.3
-
11Luzi 2008Luzi 20083331
27%
0.9
4156-15
2.9
73%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12Tomori BeratTomori Berat3317
12%
0.5
2172-51
2.8
76%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.2
-
13LuftëtariLuftëtari10
0%
0.0
13-2
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.03.0
-
14Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.02.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

← all matches