Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, with both sides averaging under one goal per match against similar opposition. The model favours a home win, assigning Burreli a 43 % chance, a draw 32 %, and Kastrioti 25 %. The expected total goals sits at 2.0, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 14.4 % probability. Burreli’s home form shows 0.67 goals scored and 0.58 conceded, while Kastrioti’s away numbers are 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded. Recent form hints at a cautious start: Burreli returns from a 4-4 draw, whereas Kastrioti comes off a 0-3 loss. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.9 %), Under 5.5 (98.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (94.7 %), Under 4.5 (94.4 %) and Home +2 handicap (91.6 %). These picks reflect the low-scoring nature of the match and the home side’s advantage.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Burreli win
43.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë win
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Burreli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.40
0.69
0.81
1.00
2.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
2.12
0.80
1.60
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (22)
0.91
1.14
0.64
0.45
1.18
1.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kastrioti Krujë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.80
1.81
1.56
0.93
2.07
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
3.11
2.00
2.50
0.40
3.60
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.24
1.75
1.25
1.22
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
61.7%
Under 1.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
33.4%
Under 2.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.0%
Under 3.5
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.0%
No
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
14.3%
1-0
14.3%
0-1
9.6%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
5.5%
0-2
4.6%
Burreli goals ↓
Kastrioti Krujë goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
9.6%
4.6%
1.3%
0.3%
1
14%
14%
5.5%
1.5%
0.3%
2
9.3%
7.9%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
3
3.7%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.1%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burreli goals (down), columns = Kastrioti Krujë goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Oriku
1.23
Flamurtari
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
FK Kukesi
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Burreli is 0.06 points worse than Kastrioti Krujë in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Oriku
1.10
Flamurtari
1.10
Bylis
1.10
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.10
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Burreli
0.82
Burreli is 0.52 goals worse than Kastrioti Krujë in terms of goals scored per game (0.82 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.94
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Oriku
1.23
Flamurtari
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Burreli
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
Burreli is 0.36 goals better than Kastrioti Krujë in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.73).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Burreli or Draw
75.4%
Avg Implied -
43%
32%
25%
covers Burreli + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Burreli or Kastrioti Krujë
67.5%
Avg Implied -
43%
32%
25%
covers Burreli + Kastrioti Krujë
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kastrioti Krujë
57.0%
Avg Implied -
43%
32%
25%
covers Draw + Kastrioti Krujë
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Burreli over/under 0.5
Over
69.8%
Under
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5
Over
33.7%
Under
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 0.5
Over
56.9%
Under
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 1.5
Over
20.6%
Under
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 2.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Burreli, so a minus line means Burreli give that many goals of a start and Kastrioti Krujë receive them. At -1, Burreli must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Burreli win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Burreli)
Burreli -2
6.5%
Draw -2
12.9%
Kastrioti Krujë +2
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Burreli)
Burreli -1
19.4%
Draw -1
23.6%
Kastrioti Krujë +1
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Burreli)
Burreli +1
75.4%
Draw +1
16.2%
Kastrioti Krujë -1
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Burreli)
Burreli +2
91.6%
Draw +2
6.4%
Kastrioti Krujë -2
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Burreli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.43
0.19
0.38
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.32
0.23
0.18
0.09
0.45
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kastrioti Krujë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.88
0.75
0.36
0.86
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.22
1.50
1.25
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.62
0.67
0.58
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.4%
Under 0.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
27.9%
Under 1.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.5%
Under 2.5
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burreli over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.2%
Under
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Burreli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.97
0.50
0.44
0.57
1.57
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.12
0.60
0.60
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.91
0.45
0.36
0.73
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kastrioti Krujë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.00
0.94
0.81
0.57
1.21
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.89
0.50
1.25
0.20
2.40
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.62
1.08
0.67
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.2%
Under 0.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.8%
Under 1.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.3%
Under 2.5
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burreli over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.5%
Under
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.7%
Under
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
FK (20)
€1m
Burreli and Kastrioti Krujë have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
Burreli and Kastrioti Krujë have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KK (7)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
Burreli and Kastrioti Krujë have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
Burreli and Kastrioti Krujë have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Albania: 1st Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Korabi Peshkopi
Flamurtari
Oriku
Bylis
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FK Kukesi
Sopoti Librazhd
Pogradeci
Besa Kavajë
Iliria Fushë-Krujë