PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Burreli vs Korabi Peshkopi Result & Analysis

Date: 04/10/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 0-3
Burreli
Burreli
Vs
49%
32%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Korabi Peshkopi
Korabi Peshkopi
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Burreli winâś— Miss
49.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi winâś“ Hit
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

BurreliBurreli

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L21W21W01L03L20W00D21W11DH·FLA30/03A·VOR05/04H·VAL13/04A·FK 20/04H·POG24/04A·SKE23/08H·FK 30/08A·LUF13/09H·BES19/09A·KAS27/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.670.940.621.290.71
vs Stronger (9)0.441.110.400.600.501.75
vs Similar (21)1.380.481.180.641.600.30
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Korabi Peshkopi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W03L10W10W30W11D00D00D02L00DA·ERZ27/03A·APO30/03H·KAS05/04A·LUS13/04H·POG20/04A·LUF23/08H·BES30/08A·KAS13/09A·LAC19/09H·APO27/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.531.211.140.941.88
vs Stronger (7)1.001.862.000.670.252.75
vs Similar (23)1.091.431.001.271.171.58
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%16%026%128%217%38%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
57.7%
Under 1.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
29.5%
Under 2.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.5%
Under 3.5
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
35.5%
No
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.4%
0-0
16.2%
1-1
13.5%
2-0
11.5%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
7.6%
3-0
4.8%
1-2
4.0%
Burreli goals ↓
Korabi Peshkopi goals →
01234
016%8.6%3.2%0.7%0.1%
117%13%4.0%0.9%0.1%
212%7.6%2.5%0.5%0.1%
34.8%3.1%1.0%0.2%0.0%
41.5%1.0%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burreli goals (down), columns = Korabi Peshkopi goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laci
2.39
Skenderbeu Korce
2.33
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
Luftëtari
1.03
Bylis B
1.00
FK Kukesi
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Apolonia Fier
0.85
Lushnja
0.79
Butrinti Sarandë
0.00
Burreli is 0.03 points better than Korabi Peshkopi in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.09).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Laci
1.82
Skenderbeu Korce
1.73
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Luftëtari
1.12
Bylis B
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Apolonia Fier
0.94
Burreli
0.82
Lushnja
0.79
Butrinti Sarandë
0.00
Burreli is 0.12 goals worse than Korabi Peshkopi in terms of goals scored per game (0.82 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laci
0.70
Skenderbeu Korce
0.76
Pogradeci
0.94
Bylis B
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Luftëtari
1.29
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Apolonia Fier
1.33
Burreli
1.36
Lushnja
1.42
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
Butrinti Sarandë
2.00
Burreli is 0.18 goals worse than Korabi Peshkopi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.18).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BurreliBurreli

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L10W01L01L20W00D00D10WH·FLA30/03A·VOR05/04H·VAL13/04A·FK 20/04H·POG24/04A·SKE23/08H·FK 30/08A·LUF13/09H·BES19/09A·KAS27/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.330.440.310.360.36
vs Stronger (9)0.220.670.400.400.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.480.190.450.270.500.10
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Korabi Peshkopi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D00D00D20W00D00D00D01L00DA·ERZ27/03A·APO30/03H·KAS05/04A·LUS13/04H·POG20/04A·LUF23/08H·BES30/08A·KAS13/09A·LAC19/09H·APO27/09
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.600.640.430.440.75
vs Stronger (7)0.570.861.000.330.251.25
vs Similar (23)0.520.520.550.450.500.58
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burreli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BurreliBurreli

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L20W11D00D02L00D00D21W01LH·FLA30/03A·VOR05/04H·VAL13/04A·FK 20/04H·POG24/04A·SKE23/08H·FK 30/08A·LUF13/09H·BES19/09A·KAS27/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.330.500.310.930.36
vs Stronger (9)0.220.440.000.200.500.75
vs Similar (21)0.900.290.730.361.100.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Korabi Peshkopi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D03L10W10W10W11D00D00D01L00DA·ERZ27/03A·APO30/03H·KAS05/04A·LUS13/04H·POG20/04A·LUF23/08H·BES30/08A·KAS13/09A·LAC19/09H·APO27/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.930.570.710.501.12
vs Stronger (7)0.431.001.000.330.001.50
vs Similar (23)0.570.910.450.820.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burreli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.587.5%-------âś“ Hit
Under 2.570.5%-------âś— Miss

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SK (27)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
BB (20)
€2m
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
FK (20)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
Burreli and Korabi Peshkopi have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
BB (8)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
LUF (6)
€0m
FK (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
Burreli and Korabi Peshkopi have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAC (6)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
BB (6)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
LUF (4)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
Burreli and Korabi Peshkopi have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
BB (6)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUF (8)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
Burreli and Korabi Peshkopi have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
BUR wins
4
Draws
2
KP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Burreli vs Korabi Peshkopi · H/A from BUR
DateH/AGameScore
17/02/25HBUR Vs Korabi Peshkopi1-2
30/11/24HBUR Vs Korabi Peshkopi0-0
11/09/24AKorabi Peshkopi Vs BUR0-0
04/05/24AKorabi Peshkopi Vs BUR2-3
03/02/24HBUR Vs Korabi Peshkopi1-0
22/10/23AKorabi Peshkopi Vs BUR1-0
23/04/23AKorabi Peshkopi Vs BUR0-0
11/12/22HBUR Vs Korabi Peshkopi1-1

BurreliBurreli

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/25AKastrioti Krujë Vs BUR1-1
19/09/25HBUR Vs Besa Kavajë2-1
13/09/25ALuftëtari Vs BUR0-0
30/08/25HBUR Vs FK Kukesi2-0
23/08/25ASkenderbeu Korce Vs BUR3-0
24/04/25HBUR Vs Pogradeci0-1
20/04/25AFK Kukesi Vs BUR1-2
13/04/25HBUR Vs Valbona2-1
05/04/25AVora Vs BUR2-0
30/03/25HBUR Vs Flamurtari0-0

Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/25HKP Vs Apolonia Fier0-0
19/09/25ALaci Vs KP2-0
13/09/25AKastrioti Krujë Vs KP0-0
30/08/25HKP Vs Besa Kavajë0-0
23/08/25ALuftëtari Vs KP1-1
20/04/25HKP Vs Pogradeci3-0
13/04/25ALushnja Vs KP0-1
05/04/25HKP Vs Kastrioti Krujë1-0
30/03/25AApolonia Fier Vs KP3-0
27/03/25AErzeni Shijak Vs KP0-2

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Burreli
Burreli
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWD1.68
HomeDWLWW1.92
AwayLWLDD1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%56%40%
AVG goals1.921.602.24
Over 1.5 %58%44%72%
Over 2.5 %38%28%48%
Over 3.5 %10%4%16%
Scored1.081.041.12
Conceded0.840.561.12
BTTS36%36%36%
Clean Sheet44%48%40%
Corners---
Cards---
Korabi Peshkopi
Korabi Peshkopi
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDLD1.22
HomeDWWDD1.42
AwayLWDDL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%27%
AVG goals2.582.542.62
Over 1.5 %68%71%65%
Over 2.5 %50%54%46%
Over 3.5 %24%21%27%
Scored1.161.331.00
Conceded1.421.211.62
BTTS48%54%42%
Clean Sheet28%25%31%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaciLaci3379
73%
2.4
6023+37
2.5
73%
52%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.80.7
-
2Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce3377
73%
2.3
5725+32
2.5
64%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.70.8
-
3PogradeciPogradeci3368
61%
2.1
6331+32
2.8
76%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.90.9
-
4Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë3345
33%
1.4
3233-1
2.0
67%
36%
6%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.0
-
5Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3339
30%
1.2
4143-2
2.5
70%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.3
-
6Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3339
33%
1.2
4457-13
3.1
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.31.7
-
7BurreliBurreli3337
27%
1.1
2745-18
2.2
64%
36%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.4
-
8Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3336
24%
1.1
3139-8
2.1
64%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.2
-
9LuftëtariLuftëtari3435
21%
1.0
3844-6
2.4
76%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.3
-
10FK KukesiFK Kukesi3535
26%
1.0
3451-17
2.4
74%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.5
-
11Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3328
18%
0.8
3144-13
2.3
70%
39%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.3
-
12LushnjaLushnja3326
15%
0.8
2647-21
2.2
61%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.4
-
13Bylis BBylis B11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.0
-
14Sopoti LibrazhdSopoti Librazhd11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
15Butrinti SarandëButrinti Sarandë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

← all matches