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Burreli vs Pogradeci Result & Analysis

Date: 15/09/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 2-1
Burreli
Burreli
Vs
47%
33%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Pogradeci
Pogradeci
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Burreli win✓ Hit
47.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci win✗ Miss
19.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BurreliBurreli

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L01L01L13L20W32W21W21W00D00DA·LUZ31/03H·BES06/04A·TOM13/04A·KAS21/04H·LUS28/04A·KOR04/05H·APO08/05A·FLA24/08H·VAL31/08A·KOR11/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.131.000.790.691.44
vs Stronger (11)0.911.270.830.671.002.00
vs Similar (19)0.791.051.120.880.551.18
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PogradeciPogradeci

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L31W01L02LA·BUR26/05H·KAS24/08A·LUS30/08H·BES11/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.501.501.500.501.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (1)0.002.000.002.00--
vs Weaker (3)1.331.333.001.000.501.50
Clean sheet %0% (-32pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%17%027%128%217%38%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
56.4%
Under 1.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
28.3%
Under 2.5
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
11.7%
Under 3.5
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
34.9%
No
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.4%
0-0
17.0%
1-1
13.6%
2-0
11.0%
0-1
9.2%
2-1 ✓
7.3%
3-0
4.4%
1-2
4.1%
Burreli goals ↓
Pogradeci goals →
01234
017%9.2%3.5%0.8%0.1%
117%14%4.1%0.9%0.2%
211%7.3%2.4%0.5%0.1%
34.4%2.9%1.0%0.2%0.0%
41.3%0.9%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burreli goals (down), columns = Pogradeci goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vora
2.30
Flamurtari
2.27
Besa Kavajë
2.14
Burreli
1.71
Pogradeci
1.57
Apolonia Fier
1.35
Lushnja
1.33
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
FK Kukesi
0.91
Valbona
0.48
Erzeni Shijak
0.33
Oriku
0.00
Luzi 2008
0.00
Burreli is 0.13 points better than Pogradeci in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.57).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flamurtari
1.88
Vora
1.67
Besa Kavajë
1.57
Apolonia Fier
1.35
Lushnja
1.18
Korabi Peshkopi
1.06
Burreli
1.06
Kastrioti Krujë
1.06
Pogradeci
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.88
Valbona
0.88
Erzeni Shijak
0.48
Oriku
0.00
Luzi 2008
0.00
Burreli is 0.06 goals better than Pogradeci in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Besa Kavajë
0.57
Flamurtari
0.64
Burreli
0.68
Vora
0.73
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Pogradeci
1.00
Oriku
1.00
Luzi 2008
1.00
Lushnja
1.24
Kastrioti Krujë
1.44
Korabi Peshkopi
1.45
FK Kukesi
1.65
Valbona
1.79
Erzeni Shijak
1.91
Burreli is 0.32 goals better than Pogradeci in terms of goals conceded per game (0.68 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BurreliBurreli

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D00D20W11D00D11D00D00DA·LUZ31/03H·BES06/04A·TOM13/04A·KAS21/04H·LUS28/04A·KOR04/05H·APO08/05A·FLA24/08H·VAL31/08A·KOR11/09
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.470.710.360.120.56
vs Stronger (11)0.450.730.670.500.201.00
vs Similar (19)0.370.320.750.250.090.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PogradeciPogradeci

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W10W01L01LA·BUR26/05H·KAS24/08A·LUS30/08H·BES11/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.500.500.500.500.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Weaker (3)0.670.331.000.000.500.50
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burreli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BurreliBurreli

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L01L13L00D21W21W10W00D00DA·LUZ31/03H·BES06/04A·TOM13/04A·KAS21/04H·LUS28/04A·KOR04/05H·APO08/05A·FLA24/08H·VAL31/08A·KOR11/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.670.290.430.560.88
vs Stronger (11)0.450.550.170.170.801.00
vs Similar (19)0.420.740.380.620.450.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PogradeciPogradeci

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L21W00D01LA·BUR26/05H·KAS24/08A·LUS30/08H·BES11/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.001.001.000.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Weaker (3)0.671.002.001.000.001.00
Clean sheet %25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burreli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.588.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 2.571.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
FK (20)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
Burreli and Pogradeci have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
Burreli and Pogradeci have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
Burreli and Pogradeci have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
Burreli and Pogradeci have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
BUR wins
0
Draws
0
POG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Burreli vs Pogradeci · H/A from BUR
DateH/AGameScore
26/05/23HBUR Vs Pogradeci2-1

BurreliBurreli

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/09/24AKorabi Peshkopi Vs BUR0-0
31/08/24HBUR Vs Valbona0-0
24/08/24AFlamurtari Vs BUR1-2
08/05/24HBUR Vs Apolonia Fier2-1
04/05/24AKorabi Peshkopi Vs BUR2-3
28/04/24HBUR Vs Lushnja2-0
21/04/24AKastrioti Krujë Vs BUR3-1
13/04/24ATomori Berat Vs BUR1-0
06/04/24HBUR Vs Besa Kavajë0-1
31/03/24ALuzi 2008 Vs BUR2-1

PogradeciPogradeci

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/09/24HPOG Vs Besa Kavajë0-2
30/08/24ALushnja Vs POG1-0
24/08/24HPOG Vs Kastrioti Krujë3-1
26/05/23ABurreli Vs POG2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Burreli
Burreli
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDD1.30
HomeWLWWD1.84
AwayLLWWD0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%52%20%
AVG goals1.981.762.20
Over 1.5 %52%44%60%
Over 2.5 %38%28%48%
Over 3.5 %14%12%16%
Scored0.861.080.64
Conceded1.120.681.56
BTTS34%32%36%
Clean Sheet40%56%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Pogradeci
Pogradeci
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLL0.75
HomeWL1.50
AwayLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%50%0%
AVG goals2.503.002.00
Over 1.5 %75%100%50%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %25%50%0%
Scored1.001.500.50
Conceded1.501.501.50
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VoraVora3376
73%
2.3
5524+31
2.4
61%
30%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.70.7
-
2FlamurtariFlamurtari3375
70%
2.3
6221+41
2.5
82%
55%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.6
-
3Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3575
63%
2.1
5520+35
2.1
69%
37%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.60.6
-
4BurreliBurreli3458
47%
1.7
3623+13
1.7
53%
32%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.10.7
-
5PogradeciPogradeci3555
46%
1.6
3535+0
2.0
54%
37%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.0
-
6Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3446
32%
1.4
4633+13
2.3
71%
41%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.0
-
7LushnjaLushnja3344
39%
1.3
3941-2
2.4
58%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.2
-
8Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3441
35%
1.2
3649-13
2.5
65%
47%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.11.4
-
9Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3341
36%
1.2
3548-13
2.5
67%
52%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.5
-
10FK KukesiFK Kukesi3431
26%
0.9
3056-26
2.5
76%
56%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.6
-
11ValbonaValbona3316
9%
0.5
2959-30
2.7
76%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.8
-
12Erzeni ShijakErzeni Shijak3311
6%
0.3
1663-47
2.4
67%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.9
-
13Luzi 2008Luzi 200810
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
14OrikuOriku10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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