Burton are favoured to win at home, with a 47% chance of a victory, 30% for a draw and 24% for an away win. The match is expected to see 2.3 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 28% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which the model assigns a 13.9% chance. Burton’s home form shows they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while AFC Wimbledon’s away record is 0.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.5% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.1% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.0% with a 4% edge), Under 5.5 (96.9% with a 5% edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (94.6% with a 6% edge). Both sides are coming off defeats, which may keep the game tight.
Results analysis
Burton’s recent form, highlighted by a win over AFC Wimbledon, set the stage for a home victory that the model predicted correctly. The final score was 4-1, confirming the home win and the model’s pick. The model’s favourite, Home win, carried a 47% probability and proved right. The suggested selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 hit at 99.7%, Under 6.5 hit at 99.0%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.7%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.2%, and Under 5.5 hit at 96.8%. Only Home under 3.5 goals missed, scoring 94.5% probability. The match validated the model’s comprehensive predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Burton win✓ Hit
47.1%
Avg Implied 44.6% · @ 2.09
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.12
10Bet
2.12
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.11
Draw✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied 28.8% · @ 3.25
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.38
Dafabet
3.35
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
AFC Wimbledon win✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.52
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.67
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.52
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Burton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.23
1.29
1.00
1.19
1.44
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.56
1.50
1.00
0.80
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.29
1.10
1.20
1.00
1.36
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AFC Wimbledon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.67
1.06
1.56
0.86
1.79
vs Stronger (17)
0.94
2.24
1.00
2.25
0.89
2.22
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.92
1.12
0.88
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.9%
@ 1.33-0.9%
Under 1.5
31.1%
@ 3.07+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Under
Unibet
3.35
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
Betfair
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.2%
@ 2.07-4.1%
Under 2.5
58.8%
@ 1.72+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.17
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.7%
@ 3.60-5.2%
Under 3.5
79.3%
@ 1.25+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.81
10Bet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.70
Superbet
3.65
Under
Pinnacle
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.26
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.7%
@ 1.82-4.2%
No
53.3%
@ 1.89+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.83
Betano
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
1xBet
1.83
No
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.95
Bet365
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Betano
1.87
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 5.88+6.3%
1-0
12.5%@ 6.42+5.5%
0-0
11.0%@ 8.26+5.6%
2-0
9.7%@ 9.25+4.9%
2-1
8.9%@ 8.20+3.5%
0-1
7.7%@ 8.92+2.7%
1-2
5.8%@ 11.10+1.8%
3-0
4.5%@ 18.03+2.1%
Burton goals ↓
AFC Wimbledon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.7%
4.1%
1.3%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
5.8%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.7%
8.9%
4.1%
1.3%
0.3%
3
4.5%
4.2%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.6%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burton goals (down), columns = AFC Wimbledon goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Burton is 0.02 points better than AFC Wimbledon in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Burton is 0.02 goals worse than AFC Wimbledon in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Burton is 0.26 goals better than AFC Wimbledon in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Burton is 0.4 percentage points worse than AFC Wimbledon in terms of average possession (46% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Burton
For 4.1 · Against 3.6 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.6 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AFC Wimbledon
For 5.0 · Against 6.7 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 10.9 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.6
10.1
3.5
3.0
3.9
22.5
22.0
23.1
vs Stronger (15)
10.1
10.9
9.2
3.4
2.3
5.0
22.1
21.2
23.3
vs Similar (34)
10.5
10.5
10.5
3.5
3.4
3.6
22.6
22.3
22.8
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
-
8.0
2.0
-
2.0
26.0
-
26.0
% over line
49%
54%
44%
48%
40%
56%
45%
42%
48%
% under line
51%
46%
56%
52%
60%
44%
55%
58%
52%
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AFC Wimbledon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.4
9.8
3.3
3.4
3.2
23.2
23.4
23.0
vs Stronger (25)
9.8
9.2
10.2
3.3
3.1
3.5
22.5
23.2
21.8
vs Similar (24)
10.5
11.4
9.4
3.4
3.9
2.8
24.0
23.6
24.5
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
55%
60%
50%
48%
50%
46%
67%
76%
58%
% under line
45%
40%
50%
52%
50%
54%
33%
24%
42%
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.2
Leicester
11.0
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.5
Blackpool
10.4
Bradford
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Huddersfield
10.2
Burton
10.2
Bromley
10.2
Wycombe
10.1
AFC Wimbledon
10.1
Peterboro
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Stockport
9.9
Mansfield
9.8
Leyton Orient
9.7
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.3
Milton Keynes Dons
9.2
Cambridge
9.0
Stevenage
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.8
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Doncaster
3.8
Mansfield
3.8
Luton
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Blackpool
3.8
Leicester
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Burton
3.6
Wycombe
3.6
Reading
3.6
Oxford
3.5
Barnsley
3.5
AFC Wimbledon
3.3
Stockport
3.3
Wigan
3.2
Sheffield Weds
3.1
Cambridge
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.8
Plymouth
24.5
Bradford
24.4
Huddersfield
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Luton
24.0
Leyton Orient
23.7
Wigan
23.4
Blackpool
23.3
Peterboro
23.2
Milton Keynes Dons
23.0
AFC Wimbledon
23.0
Doncaster
22.8
Burton
22.5
Oxford
22.4
Cambridge
22.4
Reading
22.4
Mansfield
22.2
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.3
Stockport
20.8
Barnsley
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
57.3%
@ 1.79+5.4%
Under 9.5
42.7%
@ 1.94-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Superbet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
Marathonbet
1.98
Betfair
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.3%
Under 3.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
58.7%
Under 21.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Burton or Draw✓ Hit
76.7%
Avg Implied 73.3% · @ 1.27
Edge
+3.4%
47%
30%
23%
covers Burton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Burton or AFC Wimbledon✓ Hit
70.4%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.30
Edge
-1.3%
47%
30%
23%
covers Burton + AFC Wimbledon
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Draw or AFC Wimbledon✗ Miss
52.9%
Avg Implied 55.0% · @ 1.70
Edge
-2.1%
47%
30%
23%
covers Draw + AFC Wimbledon
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.78
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.70
William Hil
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Burton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.6%
@ 1.23+0.3%
Under
24.4%
@ 3.76-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Under
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.95
Unibet
3.80
BetVictor
3.70
Burton over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
41.2%
@ 2.19-1.5%
Under
58.8%
@ 1.63+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.23
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.22
Under
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Burton over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
16.9%
@ 4.85-2.3%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.15+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.00
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.90
Under
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Burton over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
5.5%
@ 11.33-2.9%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.04+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.2%
@ 1.44-4.5%
Under
39.8%
@ 2.63+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
Unibet
2.70
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.62
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
23.5%
@ 3.17-5.9%
Under
76.5%
@ 1.32+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
Marathonbet
3.22
1xBet
3.22
Betfair
3.20
Under
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 8.60-4.2%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.05+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
8.60
Superbet
8.10
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
AFC Wimbledon over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 21.33-3.1%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Burton, so a minus line means Burton give that many goals of a start and AFC Wimbledon receive them. At -1, Burton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Burton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Burton)Actual: Burton
Burton -2
9.0%
@ 8.78-1.2%
Draw -2
14.6%
@ 5.86-0.7%
AFC Wimbledon +2
76.4%
@ 1.20+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.00
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.40
Superbet
8.30
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Away
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Handicap -1 (Burton)Actual: Burton
Burton -1
23.6%
@ 3.93+0.8%
Draw -1
23.5%
@ 3.62-1.2%
AFC Wimbledon +1
52.9%
@ 1.71+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.88
Bet365
3.75
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.60
Away
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Handicap +1 (Burton)Actual: Burton
Burton +1
76.7%
@ 1.27+5.8%
Draw +1
14.9%
@ 5.07-2.9%
AFC Wimbledon -1
8.4%
@ 7.92-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.05
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Away
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
7.70
Superbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Handicap +2 (Burton)Actual: Burton
Burton +2
91.6%
@ 1.06+4.2%
Draw +2
6.2%
@ 11.03-2.2%
AFC Wimbledon -2
2.2%
@ 22.00-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
11.00
Superbet
9.10
Away
Bet365
26.00
Betfair
23.00
Superbet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Burton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.43
0.43
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.44
0.50
0.00
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.57
0.40
0.60
0.73
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AFC Wimbledon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.50
0.44
0.36
1.00
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
0.94
0.38
0.62
0.44
1.22
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.38
0.62
0.25
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.7%
@ 1.42+1.1%
Under 0.5
33.3%
@ 2.71-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.85
Unibet
2.85
William Hil
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
30.1%
@ 2.96-1.4%
Under 1.5
69.9%
@ 1.36+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.12
Betano
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
1xBet
3.04
Bet365
3.00
Under
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.38
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
10.3%
@ 7.84-1.5%
Under 2.5
89.7%
@ 1.06+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
William Hil
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
Under
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
50.9%
@ 1.94+3.2%
Under
49.1%
@ 1.77-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Unibet
1.82
Superbet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.73
Burton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
13.3%
@ 5.91-2.4%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.10+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.25
Betano
5.80
Superbet
5.75
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Burton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 15.92-3.2%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
36.1%
@ 2.46-1.6%
Under
63.9%
@ 1.49+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.61
Betano
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
1xBet
2.49
Superbet
2.47
Under
Unibet
1.54
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.48
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 8.86-2.7%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.04+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.70
1xBet
9.70
Superbet
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 35.00-98.7%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
35.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Burton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.86
0.57
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
1.00
1.00
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.52
0.80
0.40
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AFC Wimbledon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.97
0.56
1.12
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (17)
0.53
1.29
0.62
1.62
0.44
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.54
0.50
0.62
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.4%
@ 1.27+4.2%
Under 0.5
22.6%
@ 3.47-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.24
Under
Betano
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.4%
@ 2.24+1.8%
Under 1.5
56.6%
@ 1.59-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
Marathonbet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.25
Under
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.4%
@ 5.04-0.1%
Under 2.5
81.6%
@ 1.14+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.10
William Hil
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.95
Under
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
59.3%
@ 1.70+4.8%
Under
40.7%
@ 2.03-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.75
Superbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Under
1xBet
2.07
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
Superbet
2.02
10Bet
1.95
Burton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
22.0%
@ 4.40+1.0%
Under
78.0%
@ 1.17-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Burton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 11.83-2.2%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.2%
@ 2.04+0.8%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.70-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.69
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 6.32-2.4%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.08+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.75
1xBet
6.50
Superbet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 18.58-3.0%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.5%
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.4%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.2%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.6%
1.06
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.3%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+4.0%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
+1.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.8%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.10
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+2.4%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.14
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.6%
1.14
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.3%
1.25
Pinnacle
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.26
+5.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.0%
1.17
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
-1.0%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.4%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.24
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
76.7%
1.27
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
76.7%
1.27
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
76.5%
1.32
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
76.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+1.9%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
75.6%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.4%
1.30
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
-1.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Burton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Webster33%
Zac Scutt33%
G. Evans25%
Kgagelo Chauke25%
Finn Delap25%
Will Collar0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
T. Sibbick0%
J. Armer0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Curtis Tilt67%
J. Armer50%
Sulyman Krubally50%
G. Evans25%
Kyran Lofthouse25%
Finn Delap25%
Will Collar0%
Corey Addai0%
T. Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
C. Webster0%
Zac Scutt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kyran Lofthouse50%
J. Armer25%
Sulyman Krubally25%
Will Collar0%
G. Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
T. Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
C. Webster0%
Finn Delap0%
Zac Scutt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Webster33%
Zac Scutt33%
Will Collar0%
G. Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
T. Sibbick0%
J. Armer0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Finn Delap0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
AFC Wimbledon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Maycock25%
J. Stockley20%
Myles Hippolyte20%
A. Yiadom0%
A. Smith0%
D. Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
Joe McDonnell0%
Steve Seddon0%
J. Tilley0%
Ryan Johnson0%
A. Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Z. Nelson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Myles Hippolyte40%
A. Yiadom33%
Ryan Johnson25%
A. Smith20%
D. Sweeney20%
Steven Sessegnon20%
Steve Seddon20%
Z. Nelson20%
C. Maycock0%
J. Stockley0%
Joe McDonnell0%
J. Tilley0%
A. Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isaac Ogundere33%
J. Tilley20%
A. Yiadom0%
A. Smith0%
C. Maycock0%
D. Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
J. Stockley0%
Joe McDonnell0%
Steve Seddon0%
Myles Hippolyte0%
Ryan Johnson0%
A. Sasu0%
Z. Nelson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Stockley20%
A. Yiadom0%
A. Smith0%
C. Maycock0%
D. Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
Joe McDonnell0%
Steve Seddon0%
Myles Hippolyte0%
J. Tilley0%
Ryan Johnson0%
A. Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Z. Nelson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Burton and AFC Wimbledon have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Burton and AFC Wimbledon have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Burton and AFC Wimbledon have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Burton and AFC Wimbledon have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe