Defensive solidity is the headline here, with Burton conceding an average of just one goal at home and Cambridge keeping under two goals on the road. The model favours a home win, assigning 35% to Burton, 33% to a draw, and 32% to Cambridge. The expected total is 2.1 goals, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 14.9%. Burton’s home form shows 1.45 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Cambridge’s away form averages 1.23 scored and 0.62 conceded.
The suggested picks are: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7% with a 2% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (98.1% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8% with a 4% edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (97.7% with a 5% edge).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Burton win
35.4%
Avg Implied 34.9% · @ 2.66
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.80
BetVictor
2.75
Betano
2.75
Pinnacle
2.71
Bet365
2.70
Draw
33.0%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.26
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.38
Unibet
3.35
Dafabet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.32
1xBet
3.32
Cambridge win
31.6%
Avg Implied 36.6% · @ 2.54
Edge
-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.70
Betfair
2.70
10Bet
2.62
Pinnacle
2.57
BetVictor
2.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Burton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.20
1.47
1.00
1.27
1.40
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.56
1.50
1.00
0.80
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.48
1.05
1.45
1.00
1.50
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambridge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cambridge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.83
2.06
1.00
1.23
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.75
0.75
2.20
0.87
1.23
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
62.1%
@ 1.33-7.9%
Under 1.5
37.9%
@ 3.11+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.36
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Under
Unibet
3.40
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.14
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
33.7%
@ 2.03-12.4%
Under 2.5
66.3%
@ 1.74+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Bet365
2.08
Betano
2.05
Under
Betfair
1.80
Unibet
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.2%
@ 3.56-10.9%
Under 3.5
84.8%
@ 1.26+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.79
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.62
1xBet
3.62
10Bet
3.60
Under
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.28
BetVictor
1.26
Both teams to score
Yes
42.5%
@ 1.77-10.1%
No
57.5%
@ 1.95+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
No
Betfair
2.10
William Hil
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Bet365
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.9%@ 5.89+7.3%
0-0
14.2%@ 8.67+9.0%
1-0
12.3%@ 7.74+6.5%
0-1
11.4%@ 7.54+5.4%
2-0
7.3%@ 12.20+3.6%
2-1
7.2%@ 9.29+2.4%
1-2
6.7%@ 8.99+1.7%
0-2
6.3%@ 11.71+2.5%
Burton goals ↓
Cambridge goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
11%
6.3%
2.1%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.7%
2.2%
0.5%
2
7.3%
7.2%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
3
2.6%
2.5%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burton goals (down), columns = Cambridge goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Burton is 0.03 points worse than Cambridge in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Burton is 0.07 goals worse than Cambridge in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Burton is 0.19 goals better than Cambridge in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 1.49).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Burton
For 3.6 · Against 4.3 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 12.8 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cambridge
For 5.6 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.8 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.7
10.1
3.5
3.1
3.9
22.6
22.1
23.1
vs Stronger (14)
10.2
11.0
9.2
3.6
2.5
5.0
22.4
21.6
23.3
vs Similar (35)
10.5
10.5
10.5
3.5
3.4
3.6
22.6
22.3
22.8
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
-
8.0
2.0
-
2.0
26.0
-
26.0
% over line
49%
54%
44%
48%
40%
56%
47%
46%
48%
% under line
51%
46%
56%
52%
60%
44%
53%
54%
52%
This opponent (Cambridge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cambridge
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.0
9.1
2.8
2.7
3.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
vs Stronger (5)
6.0
3.0
12.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
20.7
21.0
20.0
vs Similar (45)
9.2
9.5
9.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
22.5
22.5
22.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
40%
57%
30%
27%
33%
54%
56%
52%
% under line
52%
60%
43%
70%
73%
67%
46%
44%
48%
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.7
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.2
Leicester
11.0
Blackpool
10.6
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.4
Burton
10.4
Bradford
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Huddersfield
10.2
Bromley
10.2
AFC Wimbledon
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Peterboro
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Stockport
9.8
Mansfield
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.7
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.2
Milton Keynes Dons
9.2
Cambridge
9.0
Stevenage
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.8
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Blackpool
3.9
Doncaster
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Mansfield
3.8
Luton
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Wycombe
3.6
Burton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Barnsley
3.6
Oxford
3.5
AFC Wimbledon
3.3
Stockport
3.3
Wigan
3.2
Sheffield Weds
3.1
Cambridge
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.8
Plymouth
24.5
Bradford
24.4
Huddersfield
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Luton
23.9
Leyton Orient
23.7
Wigan
23.3
AFC Wimbledon
23.2
Peterboro
23.2
Milton Keynes Dons
23.1
Blackpool
23.1
Doncaster
22.8
Reading
22.7
Burton
22.5
Oxford
22.4
Cambridge
22.4
Mansfield
22.3
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.3
Stockport
20.8
Barnsley
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.1%
@ 1.82+4.1%
Under 9.5
44.9%
@ 1.89-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Betfair
2.20
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
41.0%
Under 3.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
57.7%
Under 21.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Burton or Draw
68.4%
Avg Implied 63.3% · @ 1.47
Edge
+5.1%
35%
33%
32%
covers Burton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.55
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Burton or Cambridge
67.0%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.30
Edge
-4.8%
35%
33%
32%
covers Burton + Cambridge
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Draw or Cambridge
64.6%
Avg Implied 64.9% · @ 1.43
Edge
-0.3%
35%
33%
32%
covers Draw + Cambridge
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Burton over/under 0.5
Over
65.5%
@ 1.31-5.5%
Under
34.5%
@ 3.20+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Under
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.35
10Bet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.11
Burton over/under 1.5
Over
28.7%
@ 2.58-7.4%
Under
71.3%
@ 1.46+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.77
BetVictor
2.70
1xBet
2.68
Marathonbet
2.68
Betano
2.62
Under
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.52
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.45
Burton over/under 2.5
Over
9.2%
@ 6.09-6.0%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.09+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.60
1xBet
6.60
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Under
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Burton over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
@ 13.88-4.6%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Cambridge over/under 0.5
Over
62.8%
@ 1.30-8.3%
Under
37.2%
@ 3.20+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.22
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.20
Cambridge over/under 1.5
Over
26.0%
@ 2.54-10.5%
Under
74.0%
@ 1.47+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.68
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.46
Cambridge over/under 2.5
Over
7.8%
@ 6.11-7.3%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.09+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.20
BetVictor
6.00
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Cambridge over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
@ 14.62-4.7%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.02+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Burton, so a minus line means Burton give that many goals of a start and Cambridge receive them. At -1, Burton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Burton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Burton)
Burton -2
4.4%
@ 11.62-3.3%
Draw -2
10.2%
@ 6.90-2.7%
Cambridge +2
85.5%
@ 1.11+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
7.00
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Unibet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Handicap -1 (Burton)
Burton -1
14.5%
@ 5.42-2.0%
Draw -1
20.9%
@ 4.11-1.0%
Cambridge +1
64.6%
@ 1.46+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.55
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
4.80
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.85
Away
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Handicap +1 (Burton)
Burton +1
68.4%
@ 1.46+6.8%
Draw +1
19.3%
@ 4.14-2.4%
Cambridge -1
12.2%
@ 5.41-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
10Bet
4.00
Away
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.10
Handicap +2 (Burton)
Burton +2
87.8%
@ 1.11+8.2%
Draw +2
8.8%
@ 6.99-3.8%
Cambridge -2
3.4%
@ 11.28-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Away
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
7.10
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Burton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.53
0.47
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.44
0.50
0.00
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.52
0.55
0.64
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambridge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cambridge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.33
0.76
0.41
0.31
0.23
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.25
0.87
0.27
0.31
0.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.6%
@ 1.41+1.5%
Under 0.5
32.4%
@ 2.73-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Under
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.85
William Hil
2.80
Pinnacle
2.77
10Bet
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.2%
@ 2.93+0.6%
Under 1.5
67.8%
@ 1.36-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.11
Betano
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
1xBet
3.04
Bet365
3.00
Under
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
William Hil
1.36
Betfair
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.7%
@ 7.86-1.1%
Under 2.5
89.3%
@ 1.06+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
William Hil
8.00
1xBet
7.60
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.9%
@ 2.15+5.0%
Under
52.1%
@ 1.62-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.18
10Bet
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.70
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Burton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.3%
@ 7.20-0.6%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.06+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.80
1xBet
7.80
Betano
6.70
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Burton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
@ 19.25-2.6%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Cambridge over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.2%
@ 2.13-6.3%
Under
62.8%
@ 1.64+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.21
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
10Bet
2.10
Under
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Cambridge over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.7%
@ 7.00-4.5%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.07+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Cambridge over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
@ 19.25-3.8%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Burton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.93
0.53
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
1.00
1.00
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.52
0.91
0.36
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambridge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cambridge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
1.29
0.59
0.92
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.14
0.50
1.33
0.60
0.92
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.9%
@ 1.26+2.3%
Under 0.5
24.1%
@ 3.52-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.60
Marathonbet
3.42
1xBet
3.42
William Hil
3.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.9%
@ 2.23-1.1%
Under 1.5
59.1%
@ 1.61+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
William Hil
2.25
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.20
Under
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.3%
@ 4.97-2.5%
Under 2.5
83.7%
@ 1.15+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Betano
4.65
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.6%
@ 1.84+5.4%
Under
44.4%
@ 1.86-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
10Bet
1.80
Under
10Bet
1.90
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Burton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.8%
@ 5.25+1.3%
Under
81.2%
@ 1.12-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.55
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Burton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.9%
@ 12.88-1.5%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.02+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Cambridge over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.3%
@ 1.80-10.9%
Under
59.7%
@ 1.89+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Cambridge over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.5%
@ 5.06-6.7%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.13+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.65
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Cambridge over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
@ 12.62-5.3%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+4.7%
Under 5.5
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+4.9%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+4.6%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
Under 4.5
94.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
+7.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
92.2%
1.09
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Unibet
1.08
+7.3%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.3%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
+4.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
90.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
+6.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.05
+1.1%
Under 5.5 cards
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.5%
1.13
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
+6.7%
Home +2 handicap
87.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
-
+8.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
+0.6%
Away +2 handicap
85.5%
1.11
Unibet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
-
+5.9%
Under 3.5
84.8%
1.26
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.28
BetVictor
1.26
+10.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.7%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
+2.5%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.2%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
-1.3%
Under 4.5 cards
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.9%
1.26
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+2.3%
Away under 1.5 goals
74.0%
1.47
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.46
+10.5%
Under 25.5 fouls
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
71.3%
1.46
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.52
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.45
+7.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Burton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Webster33%
Zac Scutt33%
G. Evans25%
Kgagelo Chauke25%
Finn Delap25%
Will Collar0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
T. Sibbick0%
J. Armer0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Curtis Tilt67%
J. Armer50%
Sulyman Krubally50%
G. Evans25%
Kyran Lofthouse25%
Finn Delap25%
Will Collar0%
Corey Addai0%
T. Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
C. Webster0%
Zac Scutt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kyran Lofthouse50%
J. Armer25%
Sulyman Krubally25%
Will Collar0%
G. Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
T. Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
C. Webster0%
Finn Delap0%
Zac Scutt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Webster33%
Zac Scutt33%
Will Collar0%
G. Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
T. Sibbick0%
J. Armer0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Finn Delap0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
Cambridge
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
B. Knight75%
Isaac Heath25%
Sullay Kaikai20%
Z. Bradshaw20%
P. Mpanzu0%
Dominic Ball0%
Louis Appéré0%
S. Lavery0%
K. Watts0%
J. Eastwood0%
G. Yahyai0%
Liam Bennett0%
G. McConnell0%
Callum Perry0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
G. McConnell33%
Dominic Ball20%
S. Lavery20%
K. Watts20%
J. Eastwood20%
Liam Bennett20%
Z. Bradshaw20%
P. Mpanzu0%
Sullay Kaikai0%
Louis Appéré0%
B. Knight0%
G. Yahyai0%
Isaac Heath0%
Callum Perry0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Louis Appéré40%
G. McConnell33%
Sullay Kaikai20%
P. Mpanzu0%
Dominic Ball0%
S. Lavery0%
K. Watts0%
J. Eastwood0%
B. Knight0%
G. Yahyai0%
Liam Bennett0%
Isaac Heath0%
Z. Bradshaw0%
Callum Perry0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
B. Knight50%
Isaac Heath25%
Sullay Kaikai20%
P. Mpanzu0%
Dominic Ball0%
Louis Appéré0%
S. Lavery0%
K. Watts0%
J. Eastwood0%
G. Yahyai0%
Liam Bennett0%
G. McConnell0%
Z. Bradshaw0%
Callum Perry0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Burton and Cambridge have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Burton and Cambridge have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Burton and Cambridge have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Burton and Cambridge have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Barnsley
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe