This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.13
1.31
1.00
1.29
1.29
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
0.00
2.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (26)
1.42
1.04
1.40
0.93
1.45
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.4%
Under 1.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.2%
@ 1.99-10.3%
Under 2.5
62.8%
@ 1.80+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.7%
Under 3.5
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.4%
No
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
12.6%
1-0
11.2%
0-1
10.7%
2-1
7.5%
1-2 ✓
7.2%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
6.5%
Burton goals ↓
Exeter goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
11%
6.5%
2.3%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.0%
7.5%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
3
2.6%
2.8%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burton goals (down), columns = Exeter goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Birmingham
2.41
Wrexham
2.00
Stockport
1.89
Charlton
1.85
Wycombe
1.83
Leyton Orient
1.70
Reading
1.63
Bolton
1.48
Blackpool
1.46
Huddersfield
1.39
Lincoln
1.33
Barnsley
1.33
Rotherham
1.28
Stevenage
1.24
Wigan
1.22
Exeter
1.22
Mansfield
1.17
Northampton
1.11
Peterboro
1.11
Burton
1.02
Crawley Town
1.00
Bristol Rvs
0.93
Cambridge
0.83
Shrewsbury
0.72
Burton is 0.20 points worse than Exeter in terms of average points per game (1.02 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Birmingham
1.83
Leyton Orient
1.57
Blackpool
1.57
Stockport
1.57
Wycombe
1.52
Barnsley
1.50
Reading
1.48
Peterboro
1.48
Bolton
1.46
Charlton
1.46
Wrexham
1.46
Lincoln
1.39
Mansfield
1.30
Huddersfield
1.26
Crawley Town
1.24
Rotherham
1.17
Exeter
1.07
Burton
1.07
Northampton
1.04
Cambridge
0.98
Bristol Rvs
0.96
Stevenage
0.91
Shrewsbury
0.89
Wigan
0.87
Burton and Exeter are level in goals scored per game (both 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Birmingham
0.67
Wrexham
0.74
Wigan
0.91
Stockport
0.91
Charlton
0.93
Wycombe
0.98
Leyton Orient
1.04
Stevenage
1.09
Huddersfield
1.20
Lincoln
1.22
Reading
1.24
Rotherham
1.28
Blackpool
1.30
Exeter
1.41
Northampton
1.43
Burton
1.43
Bolton
1.52
Cambridge
1.59
Barnsley
1.59
Mansfield
1.59
Bristol Rvs
1.65
Shrewsbury
1.72
Peterboro
1.76
Crawley Town
1.80
Burton is 0.02 goals worse than Exeter in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Birmingham
67%
Bolton
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Huddersfield
54%
Peterboro
54%
Stockport
53%
Leyton Orient
52%
Reading
52%
Barnsley
51%
Exeter
51%
Wycombe
50%
Blackpool
50%
Charlton
50%
Mansfield
49%
Wigan
48%
Stevenage
47%
Wrexham
47%
Rotherham
47%
Lincoln
45%
Northampton
43%
Cambridge
43%
Burton
42%
Shrewsbury
42%
Burton is 9.0 percentage points worse than Exeter in terms of average possession (42% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Burton
For 4.0 · Against 6.7 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 11.3 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Exeter
For 5.5 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.0 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.9
9.7
3.6
3.4
4.0
22.7
22.8
22.7
vs Stronger (14)
9.5
9.6
9.3
3.6
3.9
3.2
21.6
21.9
21.3
vs Similar (34)
9.3
8.8
9.8
3.8
3.4
4.2
23.2
23.2
23.2
vs Weaker (2)
5.0
5.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
24.0
24.0
-
% over line
47%
44%
50%
52%
43%
64%
60%
64%
55%
% under line
53%
56%
50%
48%
57%
36%
40%
36%
45%
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.6
11.2
12.0
3.9
3.7
4.1
22.7
23.8
21.7
vs Stronger (7)
9.7
8.8
11.0
4.6
4.0
5.3
24.4
25.8
22.7
vs Similar (42)
12.0
11.8
12.2
3.8
3.6
4.0
22.6
23.8
21.5
vs Weaker (1)
10.0
10.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
16.0
16.0
-
% over line
70%
58%
83%
56%
54%
58%
60%
75%
43%
% under line
30%
42%
17%
44%
46%
42%
40%
25%
57%
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Exeter
11.5
Huddersfield
11.4
Crawley Town
11.2
Barnsley
11.2
Charlton
10.7
Wycombe
10.6
Bolton
10.4
Peterboro
10.4
Reading
10.4
Rotherham
10.4
Bristol Rvs
10.3
Mansfield
10.3
Wrexham
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Lincoln
10.0
Stevenage
9.9
Blackpool
9.9
Shrewsbury
9.9
Leyton Orient
9.5
Burton
9.2
Cambridge
9.1
Northampton
9.1
Wigan
8.9
Stockport
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Wigan
4.9
Bolton
4.7
Lincoln
4.7
Stevenage
4.6
Blackpool
4.4
Crawley Town
4.3
Charlton
4.2
Cambridge
4.1
Barnsley
4.1
Birmingham
4.1
Exeter
4.1
Mansfield
4.0
Bristol Rvs
4.0
Stockport
3.9
Wycombe
3.9
Huddersfield
3.9
Shrewsbury
3.8
Burton
3.8
Northampton
3.7
Leyton Orient
3.7
Wrexham
3.6
Reading
3.4
Rotherham
3.3
Peterboro
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
26.7
Wigan
25.1
Stockport
24.4
Lincoln
24.3
Bolton
24.2
Birmingham
23.8
Blackpool
23.7
Cambridge
23.4
Shrewsbury
23.0
Reading
22.8
Bristol Rvs
22.8
Wycombe
22.7
Exeter
22.6
Huddersfield
22.6
Rotherham
22.5
Burton
22.4
Charlton
22.2
Mansfield
22.1
Crawley Town
21.9
Leyton Orient
21.4
Wrexham
21.2
Peterboro
20.9
Northampton
20.5
Barnsley
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.0%
Under 9.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.6%
Under 3.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
68.1%
Under 21.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Burton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.56
0.44
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.20
0.80
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.57
0.75
0.33
0.27
0.82
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.69
0.56
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Burton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.13
0.22
1.33
0.67
0.83
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.67
0.20
1.60
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.43
1.04
0.25
1.33
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.62
0.44
0.86
0.79
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.54
0.67
0.40
1.00
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Burton · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kgagelo Chauke33%
Finn Delap33%
George Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
Toby Sibbick0%
Jack Armer0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Curtis Tilt67%
Sulyman Krubally67%
George Evans33%
Kyran Lofthouse33%
Jack Armer33%
Finn Delap33%
Corey Addai0%
Toby Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kyran Lofthouse33%
Jack Armer33%
George Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Toby Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Finn Delap0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
George Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
Toby Sibbick0%
Jack Armer0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Finn Delap0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
Exeter · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jack Fitzwater67%
Reece Cole0%
Gwion Edwards0%
Josh Gordon0%
Taylor Perry0%
Jack Bycroft0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
Edward James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Charlie Cummins67%
Reece Cole33%
Gwion Edwards33%
Jack Fitzwater33%
Ethan Sutherland33%
Josh Gordon0%
Taylor Perry0%
Jack Bycroft0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Edward James0%
George Birch0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrew Oluwabori33%
Reece Cole0%
Gwion Edwards0%
Jack Fitzwater0%
Josh Gordon0%
Taylor Perry0%
Jack Bycroft0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
Edward James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Reece Cole0%
Gwion Edwards0%
Jack Fitzwater0%
Josh Gordon0%
Taylor Perry0%
Jack Bycroft0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
Edward James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (26)
€93m
WRE (32)
€77m
CHA (29)
€31m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
Burton's squad is €2m more valuable than Exeter's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (9)
€46m
CHA (13)
€18m
WRE (9)
€15m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
Burton and Exeter have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
BIR (5)
€12m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
Burton and Exeter have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
BIR (12)
€35m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
EXE (5)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
Burton's defence is €1m more valuable than Exeter's (€2m vs €1m).
England: League One 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Birmingham
Wrexham
Stockport
Charlton
Wycombe
Leyton Orient
Reading
Bolton
Blackpool
Huddersfield
Lincoln
Barnsley
Rotherham
Stevenage
Wigan
Mansfield
Peterboro
Northampton
Crawley Town
Bristol Rvs
Cambridge
Shrewsbury