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BVSC vs Ajka Result & Analysis

Date: 18/05/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 0-0
BVSC
BVSC
Vs
36%
33%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ajka
Ajka
Hungary: NB II
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Defensive solidity will shape the match, with both sides averaging under a goal per game against similar opposition. The model favours a home win, assigning 36% to BVSC, 33% to a draw and 30% to Ajka. The expected total of 2.0 goals is modest, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.8% chance. BVSC has been scoring 0.67 goals per home game while conceding 0.92, whereas Ajka, on the road, nets 1.15 but lets in 1.69. Recent form offers a narrative: BVSC returns from a win, and Ajka rides a two-game winning streak. The model’s selection, Under 3.5, carries an 85.4% probability. Home win 36%, draw 33%, away win 30%. The Under 3.5 pick is the only other suggested selection, with its probability stated.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialise as BVSC and Ajka settled for a 0-0 draw, extending BVSC’s recent win streak but halting their momentum. The model’s call was wrong, with a 36% probability for a home victory. The under 3.5 goals selection, at 85.4%, hit perfectly, reflecting the low-scoring outcome. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 (14.8%) and the 0-0 (14.6%) were both close, but the match stayed below the predicted 2.0 total goals. Ajka’s two-game winning run was stifled, and BVSC’s defensive form held firm, producing a stalemate that surprised the model’s expectations.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BVSC win✗ Miss
36.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ajka win✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BVSCBVSC

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L10W22D12L23L21W22D20W11DH·GYI02/03A·SZE09/03H·BEK16/03A·SZE30/03H·BUD06/04A·KIS13/04H·VAS21/04A·BUD27/04H·TAT04/05H·KOZ11/05
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.000.730.931.271.07
vs Stronger (6)1.331.171.001.001.671.33
vs Similar (24)0.920.960.670.921.171.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AjkaAjka

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W04L23L21W00D01L11D00D11D01LH·BUD02/03A·KIS09/03H·VAS16/03A·BUD30/03H·TAT06/04A·KOZ13/04A·KAZ20/04H·SOR27/04A·MEZ04/05H·CSA11/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.431.121.121.211.79
vs Stronger (2)2.003.002.003.002.003.00
vs Similar (28)1.111.321.071.001.151.69
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (BVSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%15%024%128%218%39%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
61.3%
Under 1.5
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.8%
Under 2.5
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.6%
Under 3.5
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.6%
No
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0 ✓
14.6%
1-0
12.8%
0-1
11.3%
2-0
7.5%
2-1
7.2%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
6.0%
BVSC goals ↓
Ajka goals →
01234
015%11%6.0%1.9%0.5%
113%15%6.4%2.0%0.5%
27.5%7.2%3.4%1.1%0.3%
32.7%2.6%1.2%0.4%0.1%
40.7%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BVSC goals (down), columns = Ajka goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kisvarda FC
1.93
Kazincbarcikai
1.77
Vasas
1.73
Kozarmisleny FC
1.57
Szentlőrinc SE
1.57
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.47
Szeged 2011
1.40
Budapest Honved
1.33
BVSC
1.27
Csakvar
1.20
Budafoki LC
1.17
Soroksar
1.17
Ajka
1.17
Bekescsaba 1912
1.10
Gyirmot SE
1.03
Tatabánya
0.80
BVSC is 0.10 points better than Ajka in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kisvarda FC
1.90
Kazincbarcikai
1.70
Vasas
1.57
Kozarmisleny FC
1.50
Budafoki LC
1.47
Szentlőrinc SE
1.47
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.47
Soroksar
1.40
Gyirmot SE
1.37
Csakvar
1.37
Budapest Honved
1.37
Szeged 2011
1.20
Ajka
1.03
BVSC
1.03
Bekescsaba 1912
1.00
Tatabánya
0.93
BVSC and Ajka are level in goals scored per game (both 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kazincbarcikai
1.00
Szeged 2011
1.07
BVSC
1.07
Szentlőrinc SE
1.07
Vasas
1.17
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.17
Bekescsaba 1912
1.27
Ajka
1.27
Budapest Honved
1.30
Kozarmisleny FC
1.40
Kisvarda FC
1.47
Gyirmot SE
1.53
Soroksar
1.57
Csakvar
1.67
Budafoki LC
1.77
Tatabánya
2.00
BVSC is 0.20 goals better than Ajka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.07 vs 1.27).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BVSCBVSC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D00D11D12L00D21W00D11DH·GYI02/03A·SZE09/03H·BEK16/03A·SZE30/03H·BUD06/04A·KIS13/04H·VAS21/04A·BUD27/04H·TAT04/05H·KOZ11/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.400.200.400.530.40
vs Stronger (6)0.500.330.330.000.670.67
vs Similar (24)0.330.420.170.500.500.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AjkaAjka

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W02L21W20W00D01L10W00D01L01LH·BUD02/03A·KIS09/03H·VAS16/03A·BUD30/03H·TAT06/04A·KOZ13/04A·KAZ20/04H·SOR27/04A·MEZ04/05H·CSA11/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.700.750.440.861.00
vs Stronger (2)1.500.502.001.001.000.00
vs Similar (28)0.750.710.670.400.851.08
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (BVSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BVSC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BVSCBVSC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L10W22D01L11D21W01L20W00DH·GYI02/03A·SZE09/03H·BEK16/03A·SZE30/03H·BUD06/04A·KIS13/04H·VAS21/04A·BUD27/04H·TAT04/05H·KOZ11/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.600.530.530.730.67
vs Stronger (6)0.830.830.671.001.000.67
vs Similar (24)0.580.540.500.420.670.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AjkaAjka

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L02L01L00D00D01L00D10W00DH·BUD02/03A·KIS09/03H·VAS16/03A·BUD30/03H·TAT06/04A·KOZ13/04A·KAZ20/04H·SOR27/04A·MEZ04/05H·CSA11/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.730.380.690.360.79
vs Stronger (2)0.502.500.002.001.003.00
vs Similar (28)0.360.610.400.600.310.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (BVSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BVSC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.585.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
BH (25)
€5m
KAZ (19)
€2m
S2 (23)
€2m
MEZ (17)
€2m
BVS (17)
€2m
AJK (20)
€2m
KF (19)
€2m
SS (19)
€1m
SOR (17)
€1m
CSA (11)
€1m
BVSC and Ajka have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAS (11)
€3m
KF (8)
€2m
BH (6)
€1m
MEZ (7)
€1m
SOR (7)
€1m
KAZ (7)
€1m
SS (7)
€1m
AJK (5)
€1m
BVS (5)
€0m
KF (6)
€0m
S2 (6)
€0m
CSA (3)
€0m
BVSC and Ajka have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAS (7)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
BH (5)
€1m
BVS (5)
€1m
KAZ (4)
€0m
S2 (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
KF (4)
€0m
MEZ (1)
€0m
SOR (4)
€0m
AJK (2)
€0m
BVSC and Ajka have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
KAZ (8)
€1m
S2 (12)
€1m
MEZ (9)
€1m
AJK (13)
€1m
KF (9)
€1m
BVS (7)
€1m
SS (8)
€0m
SOR (6)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
BVSC and Ajka have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
BVS wins
0
Draws
1
AJK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BVSC vs Ajka · H/A from BVS
DateH/AGameScore
24/11/24AAjka Vs BVS0-1
07/04/24HBVS Vs Ajka0-2
01/10/23AAjka Vs BVS0-1

BVSCBVSC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/25HBVS Vs Kozarmisleny FC1-1
04/05/25HBVS Vs Tatabánya2-0
27/04/25ABudafoki LC Vs BVS2-2
21/04/25HBVS Vs Vasas2-1
13/04/25AKisvarda FC Vs BVS3-2
06/04/25HBVS Vs Budapest Honved1-2
30/03/25ASzeged 2011 Vs BVS2-2
16/03/25HBVS Vs Bekescsaba 19121-0
09/03/25ASzentlőrinc SE Vs BVS1-0
02/03/25HBVS Vs Gyirmot SE1-1

AjkaAjka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/25HAJK Vs Csakvar0-1
04/05/25AMezokovesd-zsory Vs AJK1-1
27/04/25HAJK Vs Soroksar0-0
20/04/25AKazincbarcikai Vs AJK1-1
13/04/25AKozarmisleny FC Vs AJK1-0
06/04/25HAJK Vs Tatabánya0-0
30/03/25ABudafoki LC Vs AJK1-2
16/03/25HAJK Vs Vasas2-3
09/03/25AKisvarda FC Vs AJK4-0
02/03/25HAJK Vs Budapest Honved2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BVSC
BVSC
Hungary: NB II
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWD1.24
HomeWLWWD1.38
AwayWLDLD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%33%27%
AVG goals1.921.622.19
Over 1.5 %60%54%65%
Over 2.5 %32%29%35%
Over 3.5 %12%4%19%
Scored0.920.831.00
Conceded1.000.791.19
BTTS42%38%46%
Clean Sheet40%50%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Ajka
Ajka
Hungary: NB II
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDDL1.36
HomeWLDDL1.40
AwayLWLDD1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%36%36%
AVG goals2.302.082.52
Over 1.5 %62%48%76%
Over 2.5 %38%28%48%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.161.121.20
Conceded1.140.961.32
BTTS46%40%52%
Clean Sheet26%32%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kisvarda FCKisvarda FC3058
57%
1.9
5744+13
3.4
87%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.91.5
-
2KazincbarcikaiKazincbarcikai3053
47%
1.8
5130+21
2.7
73%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.0
-
3VasasVasas3052
53%
1.7
4735+12
2.7
70%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.61.2
-
4Szentlőrinc SESzentlőrinc SE3047
40%
1.6
4432+12
2.5
77%
40%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.51.1
-
5Kozarmisleny FCKozarmisleny FC3047
43%
1.6
4542+3
2.9
83%
40%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.51.4
-
6Mezokovesd-zsoryMezokovesd-zsory3044
40%
1.5
4435+9
2.6
77%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.2
-
7Szeged 2011Szeged 20113042
33%
1.4
3632+4
2.3
70%
40%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.21.1
-
8Budapest HonvedBudapest Honved3040
37%
1.3
4139+2
2.7
77%
53%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.41.3
-
9BVSCBVSC3038
27%
1.3
3132-1
2.1
57%
40%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.1
-
10CsakvarCsakvar3036
33%
1.2
4150-9
3.0
87%
70%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.7
-
11SoroksarSoroksar3035
30%
1.2
4247-5
3.0
80%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.41.6
-
12AjkaAjka3035
27%
1.2
3138-7
2.3
67%
40%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.3
-
13Budafoki LCBudafoki LC3035
30%
1.2
4453-9
3.2
87%
67%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
14Bekescsaba 1912Bekescsaba 19123033
27%
1.1
3038-8
2.3
67%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
15Gyirmot SEGyirmot SE3031
23%
1.0
4146-5
2.9
83%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
16TatabányaTatabánya3024
20%
0.8
2860-32
2.9
73%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
Hungary: NB II 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB II stats & trends →

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