Bylis are clear favourites, the model rating a 71% chance of a home win, 21% for a draw and only 8% for an away victory. The 2-0 scoreline is the single most likely result, with a 15.5% probability, while the average goal count sits at 2.6, most often a 2-goal total. Bylis’ home form is solid, scoring 2-0 in their last match after a defeat, and the opposition, FK Kukesi, is a weaker side at home, conceding 2.71 goals on average against stronger opponents. FK Kukesi’s away form is poor, with only 0.71 goals scored and 2.71 conceded, underscoring their vulnerability on Bylis’ turf.
The model’s selections include: Away under 3.5 goals99.7%; Under 7.599.5%; Under 6.598.4%; Away under 2.5 goals98.1%; Home +2 handicap97.9%; Under 5.595.3%; Home or Draw91.6%; Home +1 handicap91.6%. Each is presented with its exact percentage, and the only edge noted is the 97.9% edge for Home +2. The match is heavily skewed in favour of Bylis, reflected in the high win probability and the numerous low-goal selections.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bylis win
70.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi win
8.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bylis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.47
1.27
1.00
0.87
1.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.07
1.47
1.27
1.00
0.87
1.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Kukesi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Kukesi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.43
1.33
1.00
0.67
1.87
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
2.18
0.75
1.25
0.71
2.71
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.00
1.55
0.91
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Bylis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.4%
Under 2.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.8%
Under 3.5
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
38.1%
No
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
15.4%
1-0
14.5%
3-0
10.3%
1-1
9.5%
2-1
8.7%
0-0
8.5%
3-1
5.8%
4-0
5.2%
Bylis goals ↓
FK Kukesi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
3.4%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
1
15%
9.5%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
2
15%
8.7%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
3
10%
5.8%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
4
5.2%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bylis goals (down), columns = FK Kukesi goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
FK Kukesi
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Bylis is 0.23 points better than FK Kukesi in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Flamurtari
1.10
Oriku
1.10
Bylis
1.10
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.10
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Burreli
0.82
Bylis is 0.13 goals better than FK Kukesi in terms of goals scored per game (1.10 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.94
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Burreli
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
Bylis is 0.23 goals better than FK Kukesi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bylis or Draw
91.6%
Avg Implied -
71%
21%
8%
covers Bylis + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bylis or FK Kukesi
79.2%
Avg Implied -
71%
21%
8%
covers Bylis + FK Kukesi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FK Kukesi
29.2%
Avg Implied -
71%
21%
8%
covers Draw + FK Kukesi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bylis over/under 0.5
Over
86.6%
Under
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 1.5
Over
59.7%
Under
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 2.5
Over
32.6%
Under
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 3.5
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 0.5
Over
43.0%
Under
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 1.5
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 2.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bylis, so a minus line means Bylis give that many goals of a start and FK Kukesi receive them. At -1, Bylis must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bylis win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bylis)
Bylis -2
23.7%
Draw -2
22.1%
FK Kukesi +2
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Bylis)
Bylis -1
45.9%
Draw -1
25.0%
FK Kukesi +1
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Bylis)
Bylis +1
91.6%
Draw +1
6.4%
FK Kukesi -1
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Bylis)
Bylis +2
97.9%
Draw +2
1.7%
FK Kukesi -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bylis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.40
0.33
0.07
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.30
0.40
0.33
0.07
0.27
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Kukesi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Kukesi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.53
0.47
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.27
0.50
0.25
0.29
1.86
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.47
0.55
0.55
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bylis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bylis over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bylis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.07
0.93
0.93
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.77
1.07
0.93
0.93
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Kukesi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Kukesi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.80
0.53
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.91
0.25
1.00
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.53
1.00
0.36
0.12
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bylis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bylis over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Albania: 1st Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →