Bylis are tipped to take the match at home, with a 55% chance of victory, a 27% draw, and a 19% away win. The model predicts an average of 2.6 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 with a 12.6% probability. Bylis, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Pogradeci, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 1.17 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Under 5.5 (95.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.0%), Home +2 handicap (93.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.1%), and Under 4.5 (88.3%). Both sides have recently come off defeats - Bylis lost 2-5 to Vora and Pogradeci lost 0-1 to Teuta Durrës - adding a narrative of potential redemption. The overall shape points to a tight contest with a high likelihood of a low-scoring draw.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bylis win
54.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci win
18.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Bylis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.47
1.27
1.00
0.87
1.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.07
1.47
1.27
1.00
0.87
1.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogradeci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.90
2.40
0.40
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.89
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (21)
2.52
0.90
2.92
0.42
2.00
1.56
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Bylis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.5%
Under 1.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.0%
Under 2.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.4%
Under 3.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.9%
No
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-0
11.8%
2-0
10.8%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.9%
3-0
6.0%
0-1
5.7%
3-1
5.3%
Bylis goals ↓
Pogradeci goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
5.7%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.1%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.6%
4.2%
1.3%
0.3%
3
6.0%
5.3%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.5%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bylis goals (down), columns = Pogradeci goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
FK Kukesi
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Bylis is 0.83 points worse than Pogradeci in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 2.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Flamurtari
1.10
Oriku
1.10
Bylis
1.10
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.10
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Burreli
0.82
Bylis is 0.80 goals worse than Pogradeci in terms of goals scored per game (1.10 vs 1.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.94
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Burreli
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
Bylis is 0.29 goals worse than Pogradeci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 0.94).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bylis or Draw
81.3%
Avg Implied -
55%
27%
19%
covers Bylis + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bylis or Pogradeci
73.4%
Avg Implied -
55%
27%
19%
covers Bylis + Pogradeci
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Pogradeci
45.3%
Avg Implied -
55%
27%
19%
covers Draw + Pogradeci
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bylis over/under 0.5
Over
81.2%
Under
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 1.5
Over
49.7%
Under
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 2.5
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 3.5
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5
Over
58.8%
Under
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5
Over
22.3%
Under
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bylis, so a minus line means Bylis give that many goals of a start and Pogradeci receive them. At -1, Bylis must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bylis win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bylis)
Bylis -2
13.4%
Draw -2
17.2%
Pogradeci +2
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Bylis)
Bylis -1
30.6%
Draw -1
24.1%
Pogradeci +1
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Bylis)
Bylis +1
81.3%
Draw +1
12.2%
Pogradeci -1
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Bylis)
Bylis +2
93.5%
Draw +2
4.9%
Pogradeci -2
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bylis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.40
0.33
0.07
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.30
0.40
0.33
0.07
0.27
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogradeci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
1.20
0.27
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.11
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (21)
1.33
0.48
1.50
0.25
1.11
0.78
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Bylis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bylis over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bylis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.07
0.93
0.93
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.77
1.07
0.93
0.93
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogradeci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.20
0.13
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.56
0.33
0.00
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (21)
1.19
0.43
1.42
0.17
0.89
0.78
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Bylis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bylis over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bylis over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Albania: 1st Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →
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Burreli
Korabi Peshkopi
Flamurtari
Oriku
Kastrioti Krujë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FK Kukesi
Sopoti Librazhd
Besa Kavajë
Iliria Fushë-Krujë