This opponent (Cwmbran Celtic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cwmbran Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
3.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
2.43
2.35
1.82
1.31
3.23
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
3.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.95
2.25
2.40
1.70
1.50
2.80
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
2.88
2.17
2.00
1.00
5.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Caerau (Ely)) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.5%
Under 1.5
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
78.3%
Under 2.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.6%
Under 3.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
70.3%
No
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.4%
3-1
7.8%
1-1
6.6%
2-0
6.2%
3-0
5.7%
2-2
5.7%
4-1
5.4%
3-2
5.3%
Caerau (Ely) goals ↓
Cwmbran Celtic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.2%
1.5%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
1
3.8%
6.6%
4.1%
1.8%
0.6%
2
6.2%
8.4%
5.7%
2.6%
0.9%
3
5.7%
7.8%
5.3%
2.4%
0.8%
4
4.0%
5.4%
3.7%
1.7%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Caerau (Ely) goals (down), columns = Cwmbran Celtic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Colwyn Bay
2.70
Airbus UK
2.60
llanelli AFC
2.13
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.97
Holywell
1.90
Newport City
1.80
Trefelin
1.77
Pontypridd Town
1.77
Cambrian & Clydach
1.67
Llandudno
1.63
Buckley Town
1.57
Guilsfield
1.50
Carmarthen Town
1.50
Mold Alexandra
1.47
Flint Mountain
1.47
Denbigh Town
1.43
Llantwit Major
1.43
Baglan Dragons
1.43
Penrhyncoch
1.33
Gresford Athletic
1.27
Ammanford AFC
1.20
Afan Lido
1.13
Caersws
1.13
Caerau (Ely)
1.07
Cwmbran Celtic
1.00
Ruthin Town
0.97
Bangor City 1876 FC
0.93
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
0.93
Goytre United
0.77
Taffs Well
0.50
Llay Miners Welfare
0.47
Prestatyn Town
0.43
Caerau (Ely) is 0.07 points better than Cwmbran Celtic in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Airbus UK
3.40
Colwyn Bay
2.93
Denbigh Town
2.27
Flint Mountain
2.27
Llandudno
2.17
llanelli AFC
2.13
Guilsfield
1.97
Holywell
1.87
Carmarthen Town
1.83
Trefelin
1.80
Pontypridd Town
1.80
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.77
Mold Alexandra
1.73
Cambrian & Clydach
1.67
Newport City
1.67
Buckley Town
1.60
Penrhyncoch
1.60
Caersws
1.57
Ammanford AFC
1.57
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.53
Afan Lido
1.47
Gresford Athletic
1.47
Baglan Dragons
1.47
Caerau (Ely)
1.40
Goytre United
1.37
Ruthin Town
1.33
Cwmbran Celtic
1.30
Prestatyn Town
1.27
Llantwit Major
1.23
Llay Miners Welfare
1.17
Taffs Well
1.07
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
1.00
Caerau (Ely) is 0.10 goals better than Cwmbran Celtic in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Colwyn Bay
0.73
llanelli AFC
0.83
Airbus UK
1.00
Newport City
1.07
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.10
Llantwit Major
1.13
Baglan Dragons
1.13
Cambrian & Clydach
1.27
Trefelin
1.37
Holywell
1.37
Caerau (Ely)
1.43
Pontypridd Town
1.47
Carmarthen Town
1.47
Buckley Town
1.57
Mold Alexandra
1.60
Ammanford AFC
1.67
Afan Lido
1.70
Guilsfield
1.73
Penrhyncoch
1.73
Caersws
1.83
Flint Mountain
1.87
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
1.90
Ruthin Town
1.97
Llandudno
2.00
Denbigh Town
2.07
Cwmbran Celtic
2.07
Bangor City 1876 FC
2.13
Gresford Athletic
2.23
Goytre United
2.40
Taffs Well
2.53
Llay Miners Welfare
2.80
Prestatyn Town
3.50
Caerau (Ely) is 0.63 goals better than Cwmbran Celtic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 2.07).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Caerau (Ely)
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.65
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.93
0.86
0.86
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.62
0.67
0.67
0.70
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Cwmbran Celtic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cwmbran Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.10
0.88
1.00
0.54
1.23
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.90
1.10
0.80
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
1.75
0.67
1.50
0.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Caerau (Ely)) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Caerau (Ely) over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caerau (Ely) over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caerau (Ely) over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cwmbran Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cwmbran Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cwmbran Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Caerau (Ely)
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.63
1.62
0.38
1.24
0.82
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.93
0.64
2.43
0.43
1.43
0.86
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.62
0.67
0.33
1.10
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Cwmbran Celtic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cwmbran Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.33
1.47
0.82
0.77
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
3.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.35
1.30
0.90
0.90
1.80
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
1.12
1.50
0.50
0.50
3.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Caerau (Ely)) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Caerau (Ely) over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caerau (Ely) over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caerau (Ely) over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cwmbran Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cwmbran Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cwmbran Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Wales: FAW Championship 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →