Caerau (Ely) are set to host llanelli AFC in a match that the model predicts will end in an away win, with a 51% chance of a victory for the visitors, 27% for the home side and 22% for a draw. The expected total of 3.8 goals suggests a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-2, a 8.6% probability that the game will finish with that exact tally. Caerau, playing at home against a weaker opponent, have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.67 conceded, while llanelli, on the road against a stronger side, have averaged 3.0 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 90.3%, Over 2.5 at 73.5%, and BTTS Yes at 72.1%. The home team’s recent form shows a win, loss, loss, win, defeat, while the visitors have returned from a defeat. All figures are presented as percentages or probabilities, with each selection highlighted in turn.
Caerau (Ely) entered the match on a win, extending a modest run, while llanelli AFC came off a defeat. The model predicted an away win with a 51% probability, and that call proved correct as the final score was 1-2 in favour of llanelli AFC. The predicted total of 3.8 goals was close to the 3-goal outcome, and the most likely scoreline 1-2 materialised. All suggested selections hit: Over 1.5 goals (90.3%), Over 2.5 goals (73.5%), and BTTS Yes (72.1%) were fulfilled, confirming the model’s comprehensive accuracy.
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.40 | 2.10 | 2.33 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 2.60 | 1.60 | 2.67 | 1.33 | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 2.20 | 2.60 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.50 | 4.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.53 | 1.33 | 2.29 | 1.64 | 2.75 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 2.33 | 2.33 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 2.70 | 1.17 | 2.60 | 1.10 | 2.77 | 1.23 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.75 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| llanelli AFC goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.2% |
| 1 | 2.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 3.5% |
| 2 | 2.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.60 | 1.20 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.50 | 0.79 | 0.57 | 1.25 | 0.44 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.13 | 0.39 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 1.23 | 0.46 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 1.10 | 1.83 | 0.83 | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 2.00 | 0.80 | 2.33 | 0.33 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.60 | 1.40 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 0.83 | 1.50 | 1.07 | 1.50 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.57 | 0.78 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 1.54 | 0.77 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 90.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 73.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| BTTS Yes | 72.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Caerau (Ely)| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/23 | A | 3-2 | |
| 06/10/23 | H | 3-0 | |
| 30/09/23 | A | 1-4 | |
| 22/09/23 | H | 2-4 | |
| 08/09/23 | H | 3-0 | |
| 28/08/23 | A | 5-3 | |
| 18/08/23 | H | 1-3 | |
| 12/08/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/08/23 | A | 3-1 | |
| 29/07/23 | H | 4-0 |
llanelli AFC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/23 | H | 9-0 | |
| 06/10/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 29/09/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/09/23 | A | 1-5 | |
| 08/09/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/08/23 | A | 2-5 | |
| 18/08/23 | H | 4-3 | |
| 12/08/23 | A | 1-3 | |
| 08/08/23 | H | 4-1 | |
| 28/07/23 | A | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Holywell | 30 | 81 | 87% | 2.7 | 79 | 17 | +62 | 3.2 | 90% | 70% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | - |
| 2 | Flint Town United | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 94 | 30 | +64 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Airbus UK | 30 | 74 | 77% | 2.5 | 84 | 28 | +56 | 3.7 | 93% | 80% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | - |
| 4 | Briton Ferry | 30 | 71 | 77% | 2.4 | 86 | 39 | +47 | 4.2 | 97% | 87% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | - |
| 5 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 64 | 67% | 2.1 | 80 | 40 | +40 | 4.0 | 97% | 83% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 60 | 42 | +18 | 3.4 | 77% | 70% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 7 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 55 | 60% | 1.8 | 66 | 50 | +16 | 3.9 | 90% | 83% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.7 | - |
| 8 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 30 | 53 | 57% | 1.8 | 62 | 55 | +7 | 3.9 | 90% | 87% | 63% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 50 | 47% | 1.7 | 60 | 37 | +23 | 3.2 | 87% | 50% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 10 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 48 | 50% | 1.6 | 70 | 60 | +10 | 4.3 | 93% | 87% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 47 | 40% | 1.6 | 50 | 39 | +11 | 3.0 | 77% | 47% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 | Afan Lido | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 13 | Caerau (Ely) | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 68 | 68 | +0 | 4.5 | 97% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | - |
| 14 | Goytre United | 30 | 43 | 40% | 1.4 | 58 | 59 | -1 | 3.9 | 87% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 58 | 52 | +6 | 3.7 | 93% | 77% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | - |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 69 | 64 | +5 | 4.4 | 97% | 83% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 17 | Caersws | 30 | 41 | 37% | 1.4 | 60 | 52 | +8 | 3.7 | 93% | 83% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 18 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 41 | 37% | 1.4 | 46 | 41 | +5 | 2.9 | 87% | 57% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | - |
| 19 | Guilsfield | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 46 | +2 | 3.1 | 87% | 67% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | - |
| 20 | Trefelin | 30 | 38 | 33% | 1.3 | 47 | 62 | -15 | 3.6 | 90% | 67% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | - |
| 21 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 37 | 33% | 1.2 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 3.4 | 80% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Buckley Town | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 54 | 60 | -6 | 3.8 | 90% | 83% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 23 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 35 | 30% | 1.2 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 3.3 | 73% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Taffs Well | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 3.1 | 87% | 57% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 25 | Pontardawe Town | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 4.1 | 90% | 77% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Llandudno | 30 | 31 | 33% | 1.0 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 4.6 | 97% | 93% | 73% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | - |
| 27 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 26 | 23% | 0.9 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 3.8 | 90% | 80% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | - |
| 28 | Porthmadog | 30 | 22 | 20% | 0.7 | 35 | 66 | -31 | 3.4 | 87% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 29 | Abertillery Bluebirds | 30 | 18 | 13% | 0.6 | 42 | 90 | -48 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Chirk AAA | 30 | 13 | 10% | 0.4 | 32 | 82 | -50 | 3.8 | 87% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.7 | - |
| 31 | Llanidloes Town | 30 | 9 | 7% | 0.3 | 25 | 106 | -81 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Abergavenny Town | 30 | 8 | 7% | 0.3 | 20 | 84 | -64 | 3.5 | 87% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.8 | - |