Caerau (Ely) vs Swansea University Result & Analysis

Caerau (Ely) host Swansea University in the Wales FAW Championship, where the recent-form storyline pits the hosts' draw against Ynyshir Albions against the visitors' 3-game winning streak. This finely balanced encounter sees Swansea University as the model's selection for an away win, with a 40% chance of victory, compared to Caerau (Ely)'s 33% and a 26% draw probability. The expected total goals stand at 3.0, with the most likely total being 2 goals.

The most likely scoreline, 1-1, carries a 12.3% probability. Caerau (Ely) have averaged 1.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded at home, while Swansea University have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 3.0 conceded away against stronger opponents. The model suggests Over 1.5 goals with an 81.3% probability, offering an edge in this match. Caerau (Ely) have a 33% chance of winning, a 26% draw probability, and a 41% chance of losing.

Swansea University’s five-game winning streak carried them to a 5-1 victory over Caerau (Ely), extending the win run highlighted in the recent form note. The model’s favourite, an away win with a 40 % probability, proved correct. The final score of 1-5 matched the actual result, confirming the prediction. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99 %, Under 7.5 hit at 98.8 %, Under 6.5 hit at 96.6 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 94.3 %, Home under 1.5 HT goals hit at 93.9 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 93.6 %. Two picks missed: Away under 3.5 goals at 92.4 % and Under 5.5 at 91.5 %. All probabilities were expressed as percentages.