Caerau (Ely) are expected to emerge victorious in this encounter, but the recent form of both teams suggests a closely contested match. The two sides met just last week, resulting in a 1-1 draw, and both teams have been coming off draws in their respective recent form. Caerau (Ely) have a home win probability of 59%, a draw probability of 23%, and an away win probability of 17%.
The expected total goals in this match is 3.0, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.1%. Caerau (Ely) have a strong home form, scoring an average of 1.5 goals and conceding none at home, particularly against weaker opponents. Ynyshir Albions, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, scoring an average of 0.77 goals and conceding 2.0 against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is the Home win, with the Over 1.5 model selection having a high probability of 80.7%. The suggested picks include the Home win (59%), the Draw (23%), and the Away win (17%).
The draw between Caerau (Ely) and Ynyshir Albions has extended Caerau's run of three consecutive draws. The final score was a 1-1 stalemate, resulting in an actual draw. This outcome was not predicted by the Pythia model, which had picked the home win with a 59% probability. The model's call was incorrect. The model's selection of the home win came up short. The model's suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit with an 80.7% probability.
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.40 | 1.23 | 2.29 | 1.21 | 2.50 | 1.25 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 2.94 | 1.18 | 2.83 | 1.17 | 3.00 | 1.18 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.69 | 1.31 | 1.88 | 1.25 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Ynyshir Albions| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.80 | 0.93 | 1.40 | 0.93 | 2.20 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.60 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.18 | 1.76 | 0.89 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.62 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.25 | 2.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Ynyshir Albions goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 11% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 10% | 10.0% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.86 | 0.29 | 0.81 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.06 | 0.29 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.09 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.54 | 0.77 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Ynyshir Albions| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.97 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.27 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.53 | 0.94 | 0.56 | 0.44 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 0.73 | 1.43 | 0.93 | 1.69 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.88 | 0.88 | 1.83 | 1.17 | 1.91 | 0.73 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.15 | 0.54 | 1.12 | 0.75 | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Ynyshir Albions| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.65 | 0.82 | 0.33 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.38 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 80.7% | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.12 | 1.11 | - | - | -1.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 26/07/25 | A | 1-4 |
Caerau (Ely)| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 4-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 10/03/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 3-4 |
Ynyshir Albions| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 24/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 24/02/26 | H | 2-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |