Caerphilly Athletic, riding a win after a 2-1 victory over Ynyshir Albions, face Pontypridd Town, who are unbeaten in their last five games, including a 4-4 draw with Swansea University. The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 3.3 goals and a 22% chance of exactly three goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.1% probability, while the model’s pick remains a home win. Home side Caerphilly have scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 2.0 at home against similar opposition, whereas Pontypridd average 2.42 scored and 1.92 conceded on the road. The probabilities for the match result are 39% home win, 25% draw, and 36% away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.1%), Under 6.5 (95.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.0%), Under 5.5 (88.4%), Over 1.5 (85.0%), Home +2 handicap (81.7%), and Home over 0.5 goals (81.3%).
Caerphilly Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.93 | 1.70 | 1.93 | 1.67 | 1.93 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 2.39 | 1.61 | 2.36 | 1.27 | 2.42 | 1.92 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.43 | 2.00 | 0.75 | 2.75 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Pontypridd Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 5.3% | 11% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 5.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
Caerphilly Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.17 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.17 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.57 | 0.93 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.13 | 0.52 | 1.00 | 0.45 | 1.25 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.43 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Caerphilly Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 1.13 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.26 | 1.09 | 1.36 | 0.82 | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.00 | 1.29 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 98.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 95.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 92.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 91.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 88.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 85.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 81.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 81.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 80.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 79.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 78.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 76.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 76.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 74.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Caerphilly Athletic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 22/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 20/09/25 | H | 1-3 |
Pontypridd Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | A | 4-4 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 27/03/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 4-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |