Caersws are favoured to win, with a 45% chance of triumph, a 26% chance of a draw and 30% for Brickfield Rangers. The model predicts an average of 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is 2, with a 23% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries an 11.8% chance. Caersws, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, have been scoring 2.56 goals per game and conceding 1.11. Brickfield Rangers, on the road, average 1.82 goals scored and 1.36 conceded against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Under 6.5 (96.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.0%), Under 5.5 (90.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.5%), Home +2 handicap (86.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (84.1%) and Over 1.5 (82.3%). Caersws came off a win, Brickfield Rangers a defeat, setting the stage for a tightly contested encounter.
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 1.43 | 2.12 | 0.94 | 1.57 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 2.10 | 1.38 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 1.73 | 1.73 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.50 | 1.62 | 1.80 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.53 | 1.93 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 2.09 | 1.09 | 2.36 | 0.82 | 1.82 | 1.36 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.50 | 2.75 | 0.75 | 2.25 | 0.25 | 3.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Brickfield Rangers goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 12% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.3% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.69 | 0.38 | 0.50 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.38 | 1.12 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 2.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.82 | 0.32 | 0.91 | 0.18 | 0.73 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.12 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 0.73 | 1.44 | 0.56 | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.38 | 0.81 | 1.70 | 0.60 | 1.09 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.12 | 0.50 | 1.20 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.27 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.27 | 0.77 | 1.45 | 0.64 | 1.09 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.38 | 1.75 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 2.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 98.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 97.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 97.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 96.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 96.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 95.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 93.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 91.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 90.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 87.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 86.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 86.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 86.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 85.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 82.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 81.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 81.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 80.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 79.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 79.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 78.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 75.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 74.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 74.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +1 handicap | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 72.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 02/08/25 | H | 2-0 |
Caersws| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 6-0 | |
| 13/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-2 |
Brickfield Rangers| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/08/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-6 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |