Caersws are favoured to win, with a 59 % chance of triumph, 23 % for a draw and 18 % for Buckley Town. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 22 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.6 % probability. Caersws, playing at home against a similarly-strength opponent, average 2.27 goals scored and 1.18 conceded, while Buckley Town, on the road, average 1.38 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.0 %), Under 7.5 (98.5 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.2 %), Under 6.5 (96.0 %), Home +2 handicap (93.2 %) and Away under 1.5 HT goals (92.5 %). Caersws have recently lost a match 2-4 to Rhyl, while Buckley Town also came off a 0-1 defeat to Mold Alexandra.
Caersws continued their two-game winning streak, beating Buckley Town 2-0 as the model’s home win prediction proved correct. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 59% probability and the result matched that forecast. The model’s selections largely hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1% hit, Under 7.5 at 98.5% hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9% hit, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.7% hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.3% hit, Under 6.5 at 96.0% hit, Home +2 handicap at 93.2% hit, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 91.0% hit. All probabilities were expressed as percentages, and every selection’s outcome was reported.
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 1.57 | 2.13 | 1.00 | 1.47 | 2.13 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 2.10 | 1.45 | 2.56 | 1.11 | 1.73 | 1.73 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.33 | 1.89 | 1.80 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 3.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 2.47 | 2.21 | 2.79 | 1.12 | 2.19 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.81 | 2.71 | 2.40 | 3.20 | 1.27 | 2.27 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.22 | 1.89 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Buckley Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 8.1% | 11% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.4% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 6.4% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.75 | 0.60 | 0.89 | 0.44 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.97 | 0.79 | 1.21 | 0.56 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.67 | 1.24 | 0.80 | 1.70 | 0.55 | 0.82 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 0.87 | 1.40 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.35 | 0.85 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 1.09 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.00 | 0.89 | 1.20 | 0.40 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 1.50 | 1.43 | 1.57 | 0.56 | 1.44 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.14 | 1.48 | 1.60 | 1.50 | 0.73 | 1.45 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.56 | 1.56 | 1.00 | 1.75 | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 99.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 7.5 | 98.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 97.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 97.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 96.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 96.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 93.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 91.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 90.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 90.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 | 90.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 87.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 87.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 85.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 84.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 82.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 82.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 82.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Draw | 82.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home +1 handicap | 82.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 | 79.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 77.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 76.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 73.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Away under 1.5 goals | 71.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 01/11/25 | A | 4-3 | |
| 25/03/25 | A | 2-4 | |
| 12/10/24 | H | 3-0 | |
| 27/01/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 16/12/23 | H | 2-2 |
Caersws| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 6-0 | |
| 13/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
Buckley Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 21/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 13/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-6 | |
| 27/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 0-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |