Caersws are the clear favourites to win this match, with a 63% probability of securing a home win. The model's confidence stems from Gresford Athletic's struggles away from home, as they have conceded an average of 2.88 goals in their last away matches against opponents of similar strength. Caersws, on the other hand, have been solid at home, scoring an average of 2.18 goals and conceding just 0.91.
The expected total number of goals in this match is 4.0, with a most likely score of 2-1, which has a probability of 8.8%. The model's selection for the match result is a home win.
The suggested picks from the model include Over 1.5 with a 91.3% probability and Over 2.5 with a 75.7% probability. Caersws have a 63% chance of winning, a 19% chance of drawing, and an 18% chance of losing. Gresford Athletic's suggested picks are Over 1.5 with a 91.3% probability, and Over 2.5 with a 75.7% probability, both with a 7% edge.
The win extends Caersws' run, following their victory over Gresford Athletic last time out. However, the final score of 1-0 was a far cry from the expected total of 4 goals, with the most likely outcome being a 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline. The model's selection, Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 63%. The model's call was also the pre-match favourite. Meanwhile, the model's selections of Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 both missed, with probabilities of 91.3% and 75.7% respectively.
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.67 | 2.13 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 2.13 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 2.11 | 1.56 | 2.75 | 1.25 | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.09 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 1.17 | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.97 | 2.67 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.94 | 3.18 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.55 | 2.75 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.58 | 3.42 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 2.80 | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.40 | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Gresford Athletic goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 4.2% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 6.4% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.78 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.36 | 0.82 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.97 | 0.69 | 0.77 | 1.06 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.75 | 1.10 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.20 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.97 | 1.33 | 0.73 | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.33 | 0.89 | 1.75 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.73 | 1.09 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Gresford Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.70 | 1.31 | 1.23 | 0.88 | 2.06 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.80 | 1.65 | 0.88 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.92 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.60 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 91.3% | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.04 | - | - | +7.1% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 75.7% | 1.28 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.22 | +5.5% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 08/11/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 29/03/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 28/12/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 24/02/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/11/23 | A | 1-3 |
Caersws| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 6-0 | |
| 13/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-2 |
Gresford Athletic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 07/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 20/02/26 | H | 3-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |