Cardiff Draconians are set to host Caerau (Ely) in a fixture that the model projects as a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 4.2 goals and a 24-percent chance of 6 or more. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, giving the away side a 7.6-percent chance of that exact result. The model favours an away win, with probabilities of 33% for a home victory, 21% for a draw, and 46% for Caerau (Ely) to triumph. Cardiff’s home form shows an average of 2.82 goals scored and 1.64 conceded against similar opposition, while Caerau (Ely) averages 2.55 goals scored and 1.64 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (93.9%), Over 1.5 (92.6%), Away over 0.5 goals (89.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.3%), Under 6.5 (87.2%), Home over 0.5 goals (85.2%), Away +2 handicap (82.5%) and Away under 3.5 goals (80.9%). Both teams are coming off wins, with Cardiff having beaten Llanelli AFC 4-2 and Caerau (Ely) winning 3-2 over Treowen Stars.
Cardiff Draconians| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 1.80 | 2.33 | 1.80 | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 2.10 | 1.35 | 2.82 | 1.64 | 1.22 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.40 | 2.70 | 1.00 | 2.25 | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.17 | 1.63 | 2.13 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 2.59 | 1.82 | 2.67 | 2.17 | 2.55 | 1.64 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.62 | 1.38 | 1.78 | 1.22 | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Caerau (Ely) goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| 1 | 2.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 3.2% |
| 2 | 2.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.1% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
Cardiff Draconians| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.97 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.80 | 0.65 | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.90 | 1.60 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.57 | 0.88 | 0.25 | 0.79 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.06 | 0.41 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.54 | 0.77 | 0.67 | 0.44 | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Cardiff Draconians| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.83 | 1.47 | 0.93 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.30 | 0.70 | 1.91 | 0.73 | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.50 | 1.10 | 0.25 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 0.97 | 1.31 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.65 | 1.24 | 1.57 | 1.86 | 1.70 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.08 | 0.62 | 1.11 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 93.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 92.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 89.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 87.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 87.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 85.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 82.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 80.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 78.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 | 78.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| BTTS Yes | 76.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 75.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 70.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 16/08/25 | H | 0-1 |
Cardiff Draconians| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 07/08/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 4-4 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 24/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-4 |
Caerau (Ely)| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 1-5 | |
| 14/08/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 4-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |