Cardiff Draconians and Pontypridd Town face off in the Wales: FAW Championship on August 15, 2026. The recent form of both teams sets the stage for an intriguing match, with Cardiff Draconians coming off a draw against Caerphilly Athletic and Pontypridd Town on a 2-game winning run. However, the statistics suggest a high-scoring encounter, with an expected total of 3.5 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals.
Cardiff Draconians have been strong at home, scoring an average of 2.3 goals and conceding just 1.1 goals against similar opponents. Meanwhile, Pontypridd Town have struggled on the road, scoring 1.08 goals and conceding 1.58 goals against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Home win, with a probability of 42%. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, which has a probability of 86.9%. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 10.3%. The home win percentage is 42%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 34%.
The Cardiff Draconians' three-game winless streak continued, as they fell to a 1-4 defeat at home to Pontypridd Town, extending the visitors' run to four consecutive victories. The upset marks a surprise turn of events, as the home team was expected to win. The model correctly identified Pontypridd Town as the favourite, but unfortunately, its call was incorrect. The model's selection, the home win, had a 42% probability of occurring. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks included an Over 1.5 total goals, which hit, with an 86.9% probability.
Cardiff Draconians| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 1.63 | 2.31 | 1.62 | 1.41 | 1.65 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 2.10 | 1.14 | 3.00 | 1.40 | 1.27 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.11 | 2.78 | 0.00 | 2.33 | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 1.67 | 1.94 | 1.75 | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 2.29 | 1.52 | 2.45 | 1.27 | 2.10 | 1.80 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.56 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 2.80 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Pontypridd Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 10% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 5.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
Cardiff Draconians| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.90 | 0.69 | 0.85 | 0.76 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.76 | 0.57 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.64 | 0.27 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.67 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.50 | 0.94 | 0.62 | 1.00 | 0.36 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.19 | 0.48 | 1.00 | 0.45 | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Cardiff Draconians| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.73 | 1.62 | 0.77 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.33 | 0.57 | 2.10 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.44 | 1.11 | 0.00 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.12 | 0.57 | 1.21 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.10 | 1.05 | 1.45 | 0.82 | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.11 | 1.44 | 0.00 | 1.80 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86.9% | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.12 | - | - | - | +4.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/08/25 | A | 1-2 |
Cardiff Draconians| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 4-4 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 24/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 2-1 |
Pontypridd Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 27/03/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 2-5 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 06/03/26 | H | 0-4 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |