Carmarthen Town is the favourite to win at home against Afan Lido, with a 50% chance of a home win. The match is expected to be low-scoring, with an average of 2.7 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.8%.
Carmarthen Town has been in good form at home, scoring an average of 0.9 goals and conceding 1.0 against similar opponents. Afan Lido, on the other hand, has struggled to score away from home, averaging 0.64 goals, but have conceded an average of 2.18 against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Home win, with the draw and away win probabilities standing at 27% and 23% respectively. The home win percentage is 50%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 23%. The model also suggests selecting Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 76.3%, and Under 3.5 goals, with a probability of 71.4%.
Carmarthen Town secured a 3-1 victory over Afan Lido, extending their run of form. The model's call of a home win proved correct, as they were the pre-match favourite with a 50% probability. The actual result matched the model's selection, which was the most likely outcome. The model's suggested picks also fared well, with 'Over 1.5' goals hitting, as predicted with a 76.3% probability. However, 'Under 3.5' goals missed, despite being the model's selection with a 71.4% probability.
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.50 | 1.12 | 1.06 | 2.29 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 2.18 | 1.65 | 1.50 | 1.20 | 3.14 | 2.29 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.00 | 1.31 | 0.50 | 0.83 | 1.43 | 1.71 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.93 | 1.71 | 1.71 | 0.62 | 2.23 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.50 | 1.61 | 2.10 | 1.30 | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.82 | 2.36 | 1.14 | 2.29 | 0.25 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Afan Lido goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 13% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 9.2% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 5.0% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.31 | 0.38 | 1.00 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.62 | 0.31 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.57 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.77 | 0.53 | 0.65 | 0.23 | 0.92 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.44 | 0.61 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.38 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.36 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 1.00 | 0.81 | 0.69 | 1.29 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.53 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 0.60 | 2.14 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.38 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.83 | 0.43 | 1.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.06 | 0.38 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.06 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 0.90 | 0.38 | 1.12 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.45 | 1.36 | 0.57 | 1.29 | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 76.3% | 1.13 | 1.15 | 1.11 | - | - | - | -1.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 71.4% | 1.49 | 1.52 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 1.42 | +11.2% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 24/10/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/03/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 27/09/24 | A | 3-3 | |
| 02/02/24 | A | 4-1 | |
| 30/09/23 | H | 3-3 | |
| 03/02/23 | A | 3-0 | |
| 01/10/22 | H | 0-3 |
Carmarthen Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 4-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-7 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 4-5 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 4-4 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 3-4 |
Afan Lido| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-5 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 23/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 3-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |