The encounter between Carmarthen Town and Baglan Dragons is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds almost evenly split: 37% for Carmarthen, 29% for a draw, and 34% for Baglan. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a moderate scoring match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14% chance. Carmarthen’s home form shows 1.33 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Baglan’s away record is 1.64 scored and 1.36 conceded. The model’s selections include an 74.7% chance of Under 3.5 goals and a 73.5% chance of Over 1.5 goals. No other outcome carries a win probability. The match is poised to be a close contest, with the home side’s advantage just enough to edge out a victory according to the model’s pick.
Carmarthen Town’s recent form, a string of two wins after a defeat, set the stage for a hard-fought clash. The model had picked a home win with a 37% probability, and the result confirmed that call. The final score of 3-2 produced a total of five goals, far exceeding the model’s expected 2.5 and the most likely 2-goal outcome. The model’s under-3.5 selection missed, while its over-1.5 pick hit. With a 74.7% chance of under 3.5 and a 73.5% chance of over 1.5, the game delivered a high-scoring spectacle that left the predicted totals well short of reality.
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 1.40 | 1.87 | 1.20 | 1.53 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.58 | 1.92 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 1.78 | 1.06 | 2.22 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 1.44 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.33 | 1.40 | 1.33 | 1.60 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.50 | 1.27 | 1.36 | 1.18 | 1.64 | 1.36 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Baglan Dragons goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 14% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.57 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 1.13 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 0.89 | 0.39 | 0.78 | 0.22 | 1.00 | 0.56 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.53 | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.87 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.86 | 0.36 | 0.82 | 0.36 | 0.91 | 0.36 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.62 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.83 | 1.13 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.58 | 1.08 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 0.89 | 0.67 | 1.44 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.89 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.64 | 0.91 | 0.55 | 0.82 | 0.73 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.88 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 74.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 73.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 08/08/23 | H | 0-0 |
Carmarthen Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 27/07/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 20/04/24 | H | 0-3 | |
| 06/04/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 01/04/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 29/03/24 | H | 3-0 | |
| 16/03/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 08/03/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 02/03/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 24/02/24 | A | 2-0 |
Baglan Dragons| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 27/07/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 20/04/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/04/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 29/03/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 16/03/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 09/03/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 02/03/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 24/02/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 17/02/24 | H | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 30 | 81 | 87% | 2.7 | 88 | 22 | +66 | 3.7 | 87% | 70% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Airbus UK | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 102 | 30 | +72 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 64 | 60% | 2.1 | 64 | 25 | +39 | 3.0 | 87% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 59 | 57% | 2.0 | 53 | 33 | +20 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | - |
| 5 | Holywell | 30 | 57 | 60% | 1.9 | 56 | 41 | +15 | 3.2 | 87% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | Newport City | 30 | 54 | 53% | 1.8 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 2.7 | 73% | 57% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Trefelin | 30 | 53 | 50% | 1.8 | 54 | 41 | +13 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 8 | Pontypridd Town | 30 | 53 | 53% | 1.8 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 3.3 | 83% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 50 | 43% | 1.7 | 50 | 38 | +12 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 10 | Llandudno | 30 | 49 | 50% | 1.6 | 65 | 60 | +5 | 4.2 | 97% | 77% | 63% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Buckley Town | 30 | 47 | 47% | 1.6 | 48 | 47 | +1 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 45 | 40% | 1.5 | 55 | 44 | +11 | 3.3 | 83% | 57% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 | Guilsfield | 30 | 45 | 43% | 1.5 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 3.7 | 90% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 14 | Flint Mountain | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 4.1 | 90% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 15 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 52 | 48 | +4 | 3.3 | 83% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 16 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 2.6 | 73% | 43% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | - |
| 17 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 43 | 40% | 1.4 | 68 | 62 | +6 | 4.3 | 97% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 18 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 37 | 34 | +3 | 2.4 | 67% | 37% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 19 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 3.3 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 20 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 38 | 37% | 1.3 | 44 | 67 | -23 | 3.7 | 80% | 63% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | - |
| 21 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 36 | 37% | 1.2 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 3.2 | 87% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 22 | Afan Lido | 30 | 34 | 27% | 1.1 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 3.2 | 87% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 23 | Caersws | 30 | 34 | 33% | 1.1 | 47 | 55 | -8 | 3.4 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Caerau (Ely) | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 25 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 3.4 | 77% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 26 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 29 | 27% | 1.0 | 40 | 59 | -19 | 3.3 | 77% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 27 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 30 | 28 | 27% | 0.9 | 46 | 64 | -18 | 3.7 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| 28 | Penrhiwceiber Rangers | 30 | 28 | 23% | 0.9 | 30 | 57 | -27 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | - |
| 29 | Goytre United | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 41 | 72 | -31 | 3.8 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.4 | - |
| 30 | Taffs Well | 30 | 15 | 10% | 0.5 | 32 | 76 | -44 | 3.6 | 93% | 73% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | - |
| 31 | Llay Miners Welfare | 30 | 14 | 10% | 0.5 | 35 | 84 | -49 | 4.0 | 90% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 32 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 13 | 13% | 0.4 | 38 | 105 | -67 | 4.8 | 90% | 80% | 70% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 3.5 | - |