Carmarthen Town hosts Caerau (Ely) in the Wales: FAW Championship on August 1st. Caerau (Ely) comes into this match having drawn their last outing 1-1 against Ynyshir Albions, while Carmarthen Town is on a 2-game winning run after defeating Newport City 2-1.
The model's pick is an Away win, but it's not the favourite, with a 44% chance of success. The most likely match result is an Away win, followed by a Draw at 29%, and a Home win at 28%. The expected total goals is 2.6.
The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.6% probability. Carmarthen Town has averaged 0.56 goals scored and 0.78 conceded at home, while Caerau (Ely) has averaged 2.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded away against similar opponents.
The model's selections are: Under 3.5 at 74.2%, with a 9% edge; and Over 1.5 at 74%. The home win percentage is 28%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 44%.
Carmarthen Town pulled off a stunning upset, defeating Caerau (Ely) 4-3. This result extends their winning run to three games, with the win coming on the back of a 2-game winning streak. The model's selection, an away win for Caerau (Ely), was incorrect with a pre-match probability of 44%. The model's call was wrong, as Carmarthen Town came out on top. The model's selection of an away win had a 44% chance of occurring, but it was not meant to be. The model's suggested picks included Under 3.5, which missed, and Over 1.5, which hit, with probabilities of 74.2% and 74.0% respectively.
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.37 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 2.14 | 1.93 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.94 | 1.47 | 1.22 | 1.00 | 2.75 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.92 | 1.23 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.30 | 1.10 | 2.13 | 1.13 | 2.47 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 2.76 | 0.94 | 2.43 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 0.90 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.69 | 1.31 | 1.88 | 1.25 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Caerau (Ely) goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 14% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.86 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.44 | 0.67 | 0.88 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.54 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.27 | 0.87 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.06 | 0.29 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.54 | 0.77 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.29 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.33 | 1.88 | 1.38 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.38 | 0.92 | 0.29 | 0.71 | 0.50 | 1.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 0.60 | 1.33 | 0.87 | 1.60 | 0.33 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.71 | 0.65 | 1.57 | 1.00 | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.15 | 0.54 | 1.12 | 0.75 | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+42pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 74.2% | 1.39 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.38 | +8.6% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 74.0% | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.18 | - | -2.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 | A | 3-4 | |
| 28/11/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/01/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 06/08/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 10/02/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/09/23 | A | 2-4 |
Carmarthen Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-7 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 4-5 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 4-4 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 3-4 | |
| 13/02/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 30/01/26 | H | 1-1 |
Caerau (Ely)| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 10/03/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 3-4 | |
| 13/02/26 | A | 3-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Swansea University | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | Brickfield Rangers | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | - |
| 3 | Pontypridd Town | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 4 | Porthmadog | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | Bala Town | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 9 | Newtown AFC | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | - |
| 10 | Mold Alexandra | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.8 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 11 | Baglan Dragons | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.2 | 25% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 12 | Aberystwyth Town | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 5.3 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | - |
| 13 | Newport City | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 14 | Afan Lido | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 4.2 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Guilsfield | 4 | 6 | 25% | 1.5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3.2 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 16 | Rhyl | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3.0 | 67% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 17 | Ynyshir Albions | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 18 | Ruthin Town | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 19 | Caersws | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3.7 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 21 | Caerau (Ely) | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 5.2 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | - |
| 22 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 75% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Denbigh Town | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 24 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Pontardawe Town | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 26 | Llanuwchllyn | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.7 | - |
| 27 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2.8 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 28 | Buckley Town | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3.7 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.3 | - |
| 31 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 32 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |