Carmarthen Town, fresh from a narrow 2-3 loss, are set to host Llantwit Major, who have endured five straight defeats. The model favours a home win, with a 47% probability, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of an away victory. The expected total goals is 3.3, centring on a 3-goal match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.6%. Carmarthen’s home form shows an average of 1.91 goals scored and 1.73 conceded against similar opposition, while Llantwit’s away record is 1.45 scored and 1.73 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.9%), Under 6.5 (94.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.1%), Under 5.5 (87.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.4%), Home +2 handicap (86.8%), Over 1.5 (85.6%), and Home over 0.5 goals (85.1%). These figures suggest a high-scoring, home-favoured encounter.
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 1.70 | 1.44 | 1.50 | 2.36 | 1.93 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 2.47 | 1.88 | 1.91 | 1.73 | 3.50 | 2.17 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.08 | 1.46 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.73 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.43 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.36 | 1.50 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.45 | 1.73 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.25 | 2.38 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Llantwit Major goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 11% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.4% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 1.07 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.82 | 0.71 | 0.64 | 0.82 | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.69 | 0.46 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.77 | 0.56 | 0.81 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.64 | 0.55 | 0.73 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.50 | 1.38 | 0.20 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.10 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.65 | 1.18 | 1.27 | 0.91 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.38 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.97 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.79 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.73 | 0.95 | 0.55 | 0.73 | 0.91 | 1.18 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.33 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 97.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 94.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 94.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 87.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 87.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 86.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 85.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 85.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 82.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 75.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 75.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 72.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 71.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +1 handicap | 71.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 70.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 16/08/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 11/01/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 25/10/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 20/04/24 | H | 0-3 | |
| 29/07/23 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/02/23 | A | 0-0 | |
| 02/08/22 | H | 4-1 |
Carmarthen Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 22/08/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 14/08/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 4-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-7 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-0 |
Llantwit Major| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 07/08/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 10/03/26 | A | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |