Carmarthen Town vs Treowen Stars Result & Analysis

This highly anticipated match between Carmarthen Town and Treowen Stars in the Wales: FAW Championship is shaping up to be an exciting contest. The recent form of both teams has been noteworthy, with Carmarthen Town enjoying a 3-game winning run, having defeated Afan Lido 3-1 in their last outing. Meanwhile, Treowen Stars have shown resilience, coming off a win against Aberystwyth Town. The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.2 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals.

Carmarthen Town has a slight edge at home, with a 50% chance of winning, followed by a 24% draw probability and a 26% chance of Treowen Stars taking the win. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 11.1%. The home side has been scoring an average of 0.77 goals at home against weaker opponents, while conceding 0.69 goals. Treowen Stars, on the other hand, have been scoring an average of 1 goal away against stronger opponents, while conceding 1 goal.

The model's selection is the home win, with an Over 1.5 goals selection also highly likely, boasting an 83.9% probability.

The upset came early as Treowen Stars overturned Carmarthen Town 4-2, ending the home side’s recent run of one defeat and the visitors’ three-game winning streak. The model had favoured a home win with a 50 % probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 2-4 matched the away victory. The model’s selections performed largely as expected: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.5 %, Under 7.5 hit at 98.3 %, Under 6.5 hit at 95.5 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 93.9 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 93.9 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 90.4 %. The remaining picks - Away under 2.5 2H goals, Away under 3.5 goals - missed, while Under 7.5 and Under 6.5 remained accurate.