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Carmarthen Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds Result & Analysis

Date: 31/08/2026
Time: 13:30
Final 2-3
Carmarthen Town
Carmarthen Town
Vs
47%
27%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Trethomas Bluebirds
Trethomas Bluebirds
Wales: FAW Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Carmarthen Town’s recent draw against Llanelli AFC leaves them poised for a home advantage, while Trethomas Bluebirds, fresh from a 5-2 win over Afan Lido, may feel over-confident. The model favours a home win with a 47% probability, followed by a 27% chance of a draw and a 26% chance of an away victory. The expected total goals sit at 2.7, with the single most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 13%. Carmarthen’s home form shows they average 1.9 goals scored and 1.6 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Trethomas, in away matches, average only 0.78 scored and 2.11 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5% with a 7% edge, Under 6.5 at 97.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.8% with an 8% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.3% with a 7% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.6% with a 7% edge, and Under 5.5 at 94.2% with a 9% edge.

Results analysis

The upset came as Carmarthen Town, the pre-match favourite with a 47% chance of victory, fell short, losing 2-3 to Trethomas Bluebirds. The model’s call was wrong, and the final result was an away win. The selection Under 7.5 hit, as did Under 6.5, Under 5.5, Away under 3.5 goals, Home under 2.5 2H goals, Away under 2.5 2H goals, Home under 2.5 HT goals, and Under 5.5; only Away under 2.5 HT goals missed. The match featured a 99.3% probability of Under 7.5, 97.9% for Under 6.5, 94.2% for Under 5.5, 97.2% for Away under 3.5, 97.8% for Away under 2.5 2H, 94.6% for Home under 2.5 2H, 97.3% for Home under 2.5 HT, and 98.5% for Away under 2.5 HT. Carmarthen’s recent form, coming off a defeat, contrasted with Trethomas’s two-game winning streak.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Carmarthen Town winâś— Miss
46.7%
Avg Implied 44.8% · @ 2.02
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.07
Dafabet
2.07
Bet365
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Drawâś— Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied 23.8% · @ 3.80
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.01
Dafabet
3.95
1xBet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.85
Betano
3.80
Trethomas Bluebirds winâś“ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied 31.4% · @ 2.88
Edge
-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.04
Marathonbet
2.98
Superbet
2.90
Bet365
2.90
Dafabet
2.90

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-732W00D70W01L14L43W21W31W24L22DA·CAR14/03H·YNY21/03A·BAG28/03H·PON04/04A·TRE18/04H·CAE01/08A·NEW08/08H·AFA14/08H·TRE22/08A·LLA28/08
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.601.381.312.361.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)2.501.811.901.603.502.17
vs Weaker (14)1.071.360.500.831.501.75
Clean sheet %23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Trethomas Bluebirds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Trethomas BluebirdsTrethomas Bluebirds

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L42W22D44D11D00D11D24L12L52WA·ABE14/03H·PON20/03A·YNY28/03H·CAR04/04A·BAG18/04H·BAG31/07A·LLA07/08H·CAE14/08A·PON21/08H·AFA28/08
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.602.102.432.140.882.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.742.322.602.500.782.11
vs Weaker (11)1.361.732.001.251.002.00
Clean sheet %13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Carmarthen Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.7%
@ 1.11-5.1%
Under 1.5
23.3%
@ 4.97+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Under
1xBet
5.10
Superbet
4.85
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.1%
@ 1.43-12.8%
Under 2.5
48.9%
@ 2.54+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.57
Marathonbet
2.56
1xBet
2.56
Superbet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.0%
@ 2.10-14.5%
Under 3.5
71.0%
@ 1.62+14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Betano
2.07
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Superbet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Betano
1.60
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.1%
@ 1.40-10.1%
No
44.9%
@ 2.63+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.43
William Hil
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
No
1xBet
2.69
Marathonbet
2.63
Superbet
2.62
William Hil
2.60

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 7.50+7.4%
2-1
9.4%@ 8.30+4.3%
1-0
9.3%@ 11.20+5.5%
2-0
8.3%@ 11.60+4.7%
0-0
7.8%@ 17.00+5.3%
1-2
6.7%@ 10.20+2.6%
0-1
6.3%@ 13.60+3.2%
2-2
5.3%@ 10.10+1.2%
Carmarthen Town goals ↓
Trethomas Bluebirds goals →
01234
07.8%6.3%4.2%1.6%0.5%
19.3%13%6.7%2.5%0.7%
28.3%9.4%5.3%2.0%0.6%
34.4%5.0%2.8%1.1%0.3%
41.7%2.0%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Carmarthen Town goals (down), columns = Trethomas Bluebirds goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Swansea University
2.60
Pontypridd Town
2.60
Newtown AFC
2.60
Brickfield Rangers
2.50
Bala Town
2.40
Aberystwyth Town
2.40
Mold Alexandra
2.17
Bangor City 1876 FC
2.00
Caersws
2.00
Porthmadog
1.83
Treowen Stars
1.80
Carmarthen Town
1.67
Baglan Dragons
1.67
Ynyshir Albions
1.60
Guilsfield
1.50
Rhyl
1.40
Caerphilly Athletic
1.40
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.33
Llanuwchllyn
1.20
Newport City
1.20
Afan Lido
1.17
Caerau (Ely)
1.17
Cardiff Draconians
1.00
Holyhead Hotspur
0.80
Ruthin Town
0.67
Buckley Town
0.67
Denbigh Town
0.67
Pontardawe Town
0.60
llanelli AFC
0.33
Penrhyncoch
0.20
Llantwit Major
0.00
Gresford Athletic
0.00
Carmarthen Town is 0.33 points better than Trethomas Bluebirds in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Swansea University
3.60
Pontypridd Town
3.20
Aberystwyth Town
3.20
Brickfield Rangers
2.83
Newtown AFC
2.80
Treowen Stars
2.60
Carmarthen Town
2.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
2.33
Caerau (Ely)
2.17
Bala Town
2.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
2.00
Mold Alexandra
2.00
Guilsfield
2.00
Caersws
2.00
Afan Lido
1.83
Porthmadog
1.83
Denbigh Town
1.83
Rhyl
1.80
Newport City
1.80
Holyhead Hotspur
1.40
Cardiff Draconians
1.25
Buckley Town
1.17
llanelli AFC
1.00
Llanuwchllyn
1.00
Pontardawe Town
1.00
Ruthin Town
1.00
Baglan Dragons
0.83
Ynyshir Albions
0.80
Penrhyncoch
0.60
Caerphilly Athletic
0.60
Llantwit Major
0.25
Gresford Athletic
0.00
Carmarthen Town is 0.50 goals better than Trethomas Bluebirds in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Newtown AFC
0.20
Ynyshir Albions
0.60
Brickfield Rangers
0.67
Bala Town
0.80
Baglan Dragons
0.83
Swansea University
1.00
Mold Alexandra
1.00
Aberystwyth Town
1.00
Newport City
1.00
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.33
Caerphilly Athletic
1.40
Caersws
1.40
Porthmadog
1.50
Guilsfield
1.50
Rhyl
1.60
Cardiff Draconians
1.75
Treowen Stars
1.80
Holyhead Hotspur
1.80
Pontardawe Town
1.80
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.83
Buckley Town
1.83
Pontypridd Town
2.00
Afan Lido
2.17
Ruthin Town
2.17
Carmarthen Town
2.33
Denbigh Town
2.33
Gresford Athletic
2.80
Caerau (Ely)
2.83
llanelli AFC
3.00
Llanuwchllyn
3.00
Penrhyncoch
3.20
Llantwit Major
3.50
Carmarthen Town is 0.50 goals worse than Trethomas Bluebirds in terms of goals conceded per game (2.33 vs 1.83).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Carmarthen Town or Drawâś— Miss
74.0%
Avg Implied 69.1% · @ 1.32
Edge
+4.9%
47%
27%
26%
covers Carmarthen Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.30
Carmarthen Town or Trethomas Bluebirdsâś“ Hit
72.7%
Avg Implied 76.1% · @ 1.20
Edge
-3.4%
47%
27%
26%
covers Carmarthen Town + Trethomas Bluebirds
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Draw or Trethomas Bluebirdsâś“ Hit
53.3%
Avg Implied 54.8% · @ 1.67
Edge
-1.5%
47%
27%
26%
covers Draw + Trethomas Bluebirds
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
William Hil
1.67

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Carmarthen Town over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.6%
@ 1.11-1.8%
Under
20.4%
@ 4.85+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Under
1xBet
5.00
Superbet
4.70
Carmarthen Town over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
47.1%
@ 1.71-7.2%
Under
52.9%
@ 2.02+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.73
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.65
Under
Marathonbet
2.08
Pinnacle
2.04
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
1.95
Carmarthen Town over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.3%
@ 2.93-9.9%
Under
78.7%
@ 1.33+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.00
1xBet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.84
Under
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.29
Carmarthen Town over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 5.40-9.2%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.10+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.40
Under
1xBet
1.10
Trethomas Bluebirds over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.8%
@ 1.20-8.1%
Under
32.2%
@ 3.77+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Under
1xBet
3.88
Superbet
3.65
Trethomas Bluebirds over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
31.3%
@ 2.08-13.1%
Under
68.7%
@ 1.66+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Superbet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.62
Trethomas Bluebirds over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
10.6%
@ 4.25-10.7%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.16+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.50
Superbet
4.00
Under
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Trethomas Bluebirds over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Carmarthen Town, so a minus line means Carmarthen Town give that many goals of a start and Trethomas Bluebirds receive them. At -1, Carmarthen Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Carmarthen Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Carmarthen Town)Actual: Trethomas Bluebirds
Carmarthen Town -2
10.2%
@ 5.90-4.9%
Draw -2
14.5%
@ 5.50-1.7%
Trethomas Bluebirds +2
75.3%
@ 1.30+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.90
Draw
Marathonbet
5.50
Away
Marathonbet
1.30
Handicap -1 (Carmarthen Town)Actual: Trethomas Bluebirds
Carmarthen Town -1
24.7%
@ 3.52-0.5%
Draw -1
21.9%
@ 4.07+0.0%
Trethomas Bluebirds +1
53.3%
@ 1.69+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.42
Draw
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
Away
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Betfair
1.67
Handicap +1 (Carmarthen Town)Actual: Draw
Carmarthen Town +1
74.0%
@ 1.29+5.8%
Draw +1
15.3%
@ 5.05-2.1%
Trethomas Bluebirds -1
10.7%
@ 6.15-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.29
Draw
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Marathonbet
6.15
Handicap +2 (Carmarthen Town)Actual: Carmarthen Town
Carmarthen Town +2
89.3%
Draw +2
7.4%
Trethomas Bluebirds -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W00D20W01L00D00D20W11D10W12LA·CAR14/03H·YNY21/03A·BAG28/03H·PON04/04A·TRE18/04H·CAE01/08A·NEW08/08H·AFA14/08H·TRE22/08A·LLA28/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.500.440.381.070.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.810.560.600.601.170.50
vs Weaker (14)0.640.430.170.001.000.75
Clean sheet %60% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Trethomas Bluebirds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Trethomas BluebirdsTrethomas Bluebirds

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L11D12L22D01L00D01L22D02L31WA·ABE14/03H·PON20/03A·YNY28/03H·CAR04/04A·BAG18/04H·BAG31/07A·LLA07/08H·CAE14/08A·PON21/08H·AFA28/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.801.070.860.380.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.790.891.201.100.330.67
vs Weaker (11)0.550.640.750.250.430.86
Clean sheet %43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Carmarthen Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.8%
@ 1.22-7.7%
Under 0.5
32.2%
@ 3.75+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.00
William Hil
3.80
1xBet
3.70
Superbet
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
32.8%
@ 2.08-11.1%
Under 1.5
67.2%
@ 1.63+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
Marathonbet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Betfair
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
11.1%
@ 4.49-9.4%
Under 2.5
88.9%
@ 1.15+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.50
William Hil
4.50
Superbet
4.15
Under
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Carmarthen Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
51.0%
@ 1.67-4.4%
Under
49.0%
@ 2.07+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Under
Pinnacle
2.09
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Carmarthen Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 4.00-9.0%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.19+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.00
Under
1xBet
1.19
Carmarthen Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 9.10-7.5%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.03+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.10
Under
1xBet
1.03
Trethomas Bluebirds over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
35.8%
@ 1.91-12.8%
Under
64.2%
@ 1.80+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Trethomas Bluebirds over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
8.9%
@ 5.10-9.1%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.12+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.10
Under
1xBet
1.12
Trethomas Bluebirds over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
1.5%
@ 11.00-6.9%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D00D50W00D14L43W01L20W14L10WA·CAR14/03H·YNY21/03A·BAG28/03H·PON04/04A·TRE18/04H·CAE01/08A·NEW08/08H·AFA14/08H·TRE22/08A·LLA28/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.100.940.941.291.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.691.251.301.002.331.67
vs Weaker (14)0.430.930.330.830.501.00
Clean sheet %47% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Trethomas Bluebirds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Trethomas BluebirdsTrethomas Bluebirds

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L31W10W22D10W00D10W02L10W21WA·ABE14/03H·PON20/03A·YNY28/03H·CAR04/04A·BAG18/04H·BAG31/07A·LLA07/08H·CAE14/08A·PON21/08H·AFA28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.301.361.290.501.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.951.421.401.400.441.44
vs Weaker (11)0.821.091.251.000.571.14
Clean sheet %30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Carmarthen Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.0%
@ 1.11-2.9%
Under 0.5
21.0%
@ 5.05+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Under
1xBet
5.30
Superbet
4.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.9%
@ 1.66-14.6%
Under 1.5
59.1%
@ 2.06+14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Superbet
1.66
Under
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.06
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.8%
@ 2.98-12.9%
Under 2.5
82.2%
@ 1.31+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Under
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.31

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Carmarthen Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
57.2%
@ 1.46-5.3%
Under
42.8%
@ 2.42+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Under
Superbet
2.45
1xBet
2.40
Carmarthen Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
23.3%
@ 3.15-5.7%
Under
76.7%
@ 1.29+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.15
Under
1xBet
1.29
Carmarthen Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 7.30-7.3%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.06+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Under
1xBet
1.06
Trethomas Bluebirds over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
44.3%
@ 1.62-12.2%
Under
55.7%
@ 2.10+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.63
Superbet
1.62
Under
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.09
Trethomas Bluebirds over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 3.90-12.0%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.20+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.90
Under
1xBet
1.20
Trethomas Bluebirds over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 9.10-8.0%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.03+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.10
Under
1xBet
1.03

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.599.3%-------âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals98.5%1.01
1xBet
1.01
----+6.9%âś— Miss
Under 6.597.9%-------âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals97.8%1.03
1xBet
1.03
----+8.0%âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals97.3%1.03
1xBet
1.03
----+7.5%âś“ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals97.2%-------âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals94.6%1.06
1xBet
1.06
----+7.3%âś“ Hit
Under 5.594.2%1.07
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
---+9.2%âś“ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals92.3%1.10
1xBet
1.10
----+9.2%âś“ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals91.1%1.12
1xBet
1.12
----+9.1%âś— Miss
Away under 2.5 goals89.4%1.16
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
---+10.7%âś— Miss
Home +2 handicap89.3%-------âś“ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals88.9%1.15
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-+9.4%âś— Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals88.5%1.20
1xBet
1.20
----+12.0%âś“ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals86.1%1.19
1xBet
1.19
----+9.0%âś“ Hit
Under 4.586.0%1.23
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
--+12.2%âś— Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals82.2%1.31
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
---+12.9%âś“ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals79.6%1.11
1xBet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
----1.8%âś“ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals79.0%1.11
1xBet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
----2.9%âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals78.7%1.33
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.29
--+9.9%âś“ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals76.7%1.29
1xBet
1.29
----+5.7%âś“ Hit
Over 1.576.7%1.11
1xBet
1.12
Superbet
1.10
----5.1%âś“ Hit
Away +2 handicap75.3%1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
----+6.6%âś“ Hit
Home or Draw74.0%1.32
William Hil
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.30
+4.9%âś— Miss
Home +1 handicap74.0%1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
----+5.8%âś— Miss
Home or Away72.7%1.20
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
-3.4%âś“ Hit
Under 3.571.0%1.62
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Superbet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Betano
1.60
+14.5%âś— Miss

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (12)
€1m
NC (4)
€0m
AT (2)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (4)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
NC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (6)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
3
CT wins
1
Draws
1
TB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Carmarthen Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds · H/A from CT
DateH/AGameScore
06/03/26ATrethomas Bluebirds Vs CT4-5
08/11/25HCT Vs Trethomas Bluebirds1-1
18/10/25HCT Vs Trethomas Bluebirds5-1
28/12/24ATrethomas Bluebirds Vs CT3-0
05/10/24HCT Vs Trethomas Bluebirds2-0

Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26Allanelli AFC Vs CT2-2
22/08/26HCT Vs Treowen Stars2-4
14/08/26HCT Vs Afan Lido3-1
08/08/26ANewport City Vs CT1-2
01/08/26HCT Vs Caerau (Ely)4-3
18/04/26ATreowen Stars Vs CT4-1
04/04/26HCT Vs Pontypridd Town0-1
28/03/26ABaglan Dragons Vs CT0-7
21/03/26HCT Vs Ynyshir Albions0-0
14/03/26ACardiff Draconians Vs CT2-3

Trethomas BluebirdsTrethomas Bluebirds

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HTB Vs Afan Lido5-2
21/08/26APontypridd Town Vs TB2-1
14/08/26HTB Vs Caerau (Ely)2-4
07/08/26Allanelli AFC Vs TB1-1
31/07/26HTB Vs Baglan Dragons0-0
18/04/26ABaglan Dragons Vs TB1-1
04/04/26HTB Vs Cardiff Draconians4-4
28/03/26AYnyshir Albions Vs TB2-2
20/03/26HTB Vs Pontypridd Town4-2
14/03/26AAberystwyth Town Vs TB3-0

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Carmarthen Town
Carmarthen Town
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLD1.54
HomeDLWWL1.52
AwayWWLWD1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%36%44%
AVG goals3.362.843.88
Over 1.5 %78%68%88%
Over 2.5 %52%40%64%
Over 3.5 %42%36%48%
Scored1.841.562.12
Conceded1.521.281.76
BTTS60%60%60%
Clean Sheet26%28%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Trethomas Bluebirds
Trethomas Bluebirds
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLW1.20
HomeWDDLW1.72
AwayLDDDL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%48%8%
AVG goals3.203.762.64
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %56%64%48%
Over 3.5 %38%52%24%
Scored1.502.080.92
Conceded1.701.681.72
BTTS64%64%64%
Clean Sheet22%32%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Brickfield RangersBrickfield Rangers615
83%
2.5
174+13
3.5
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.7
-
2Swansea UniversitySwansea University513
80%
2.6
185+13
4.6
100%
100%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.61.0
-
3Newtown AFCNewtown AFC513
80%
2.6
141+13
3.0
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.2
-
4Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town513
80%
2.6
1610+6
5.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.22.0
-
5Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra613
67%
2.2
126+6
3.0
67%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
6Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town512
80%
2.4
165+11
4.2
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.21.0
-
7Bangor City 1876 FCBangor City 1876 FC612
67%
2.0
148+6
3.7
100%
100%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
8Bala TownBala Town512
80%
2.4
104+6
2.8
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.8
-
9PorthmadogPorthmadog611
50%
1.8
119+2
3.3
83%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.5
-
10CaerswsCaersws510
60%
2.0
107+3
3.4
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
11Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town610
50%
1.7
1514+1
4.8
100%
100%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.52.3
-
12Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons610
50%
1.7
55+0
1.7
33%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.8
-
13Treowen StarsTreowen Stars59
60%
1.8
139+4
4.4
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.8
-
14GuilsfieldGuilsfield69
33%
1.5
129+3
3.5
100%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
15Trethomas BluebirdsTrethomas Bluebirds68
33%
1.3
1211+1
3.8
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.8
-
16Ynyshir AlbionsYnyshir Albions58
40%
1.6
43+1
1.4
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.6
-
17RhylRhyl57
40%
1.4
98+1
3.4
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.6
-
18Afan LidoAfan Lido67
33%
1.2
1113-2
4.0
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.2
-
19Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)67
33%
1.2
1317-4
5.0
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.8
-
20Caerphilly AthleticCaerphilly Athletic57
40%
1.4
37-4
2.0
60%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
21Newport CityNewport City56
40%
1.2
95+4
2.8
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
22LlanuwchllynLlanuwchllyn56
40%
1.2
515-10
4.0
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
23Holyhead HotspurHolyhead Hotspur54
20%
0.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
24Cardiff DraconiansCardiff Draconians44
25%
1.0
57-2
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
25Denbigh TownDenbigh Town64
17%
0.7
1114-3
4.2
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
26Buckley TownBuckley Town64
17%
0.7
711-4
3.0
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
27Ruthin TownRuthin Town64
17%
0.7
613-7
3.2
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
28Pontardawe TownPontardawe Town53
20%
0.6
59-4
2.8
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
29llanelli AFCllanelli AFC62
0%
0.3
618-12
4.0
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
30PenrhyncochPenrhyncoch51
0%
0.2
316-13
3.8
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.2
-
31Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major40
0%
0.0
114-13
3.8
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.23.5
-
32Gresford AthleticGresford Athletic50
0%
0.0
014-14
2.8
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.8
-
Wales: FAW Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →

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