Carmarthen Town are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 70% chance to a home win, 18% to a draw and 13% to an away victory. The 70% figure reflects the side’s strong home form against weaker opposition, averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded, while Ynyshir Albions have struggled away, scoring only 0.6 on the road and conceding 1.4. The expected total of 3.7 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Carmarthen, with a 9.2% probability. The model’s selection list includes an 88.9% chance of over 1.5 goals and a 71.1% chance of over 2.5 goals. The predicted outcome is a home win, with the most probable score 2-1. The match is expected to see Carmarthen’s 2.12 average goals and 1.88 conceded, while Ynyshir’s away average of 0.6 scored and 1.4 conceded will be tested. The final score was 2-0, confirming the model’s home win pick.
Carmarthen Town extended their recent run, securing a 2-0 win over Ynyshir Albions after a defeat to Trethomas Bluebirds. The model’s favourite, a home win with a 70% probability, proved correct, matching the actual result. The predicted 3-goal total fell short, yet the Over 1.5 selection hit, with an 88.9% chance, while the Over 2.5 call missed despite a 71.1% probability. The most likely scoreline of 2-1, 8.2% probable, was eclipsed by the 2-0 outcome, the second most likely. Overall, the model’s call on the winner was accurate, but its total-goals predictions were mixed.
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.21 | 1.41 | 2.36 | 1.57 | 2.07 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 2.00 | 1.17 | 2.67 | 1.17 | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 2.35 | 1.59 | 2.12 | 1.88 | 2.56 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 24% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Ynyshir Albions| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.14 | 2.24 | 1.47 | 2.20 | 0.79 | 2.29 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 5.00 | 1.00 | 5.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.00 | 2.29 | 1.50 | 2.08 | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 2.00 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
| Ynyshir Albions goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 5.9% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 8.6% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 7.5% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 4.9% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 0.62 | 1.50 | 0.71 | 0.87 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.25 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 1.12 | 0.59 | 1.38 | 0.75 | 0.89 | 0.44 |
| Clean sheet % | 48% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
Ynyshir Albions| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.41 | 1.21 | 0.47 | 1.47 | 0.36 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.38 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 34% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Carmarthen Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.79 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 1.20 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.75 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 1.24 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.12 | 1.67 | 0.89 |
| Clean sheet % | 45% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Ynyshir Albions| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.72 | 1.03 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.43 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.62 | 1.04 | 1.00 | 0.58 | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 45% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 88.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 71.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/22 | A | 1-5 |
Carmarthen Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/23 | A | 0-3 | |
| 07/04/23 | H | 4-1 | |
| 25/03/23 | H | 4-1 | |
| 18/03/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 10/03/23 | A | 0-5 | |
| 25/02/23 | A | 0-0 | |
| 17/02/23 | A | 1-0 | |
| 11/02/23 | H | 1-3 | |
| 03/02/23 | A | 3-0 |
Ynyshir Albions| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/04/23 | H | 3-1 | |
| 10/04/23 | H | 2-7 | |
| 07/04/23 | H | 0-2 | |
| 01/04/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 24/03/23 | A | 1-0 | |
| 11/03/23 | A | 3-0 | |
| 04/03/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 28/02/23 | A | 5-0 | |
| 25/02/23 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 30 | 83 | 90% | 2.8 | 101 | 24 | +77 | 4.2 | 100% | 77% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | Holywell | 30 | 79 | 87% | 2.6 | 75 | 22 | +53 | 3.2 | 93% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 3 | Barry Town | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 78 | 25 | +53 | 3.4 | 80% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Llandudno | 30 | 66 | 67% | 2.2 | 70 | 23 | +47 | 3.1 | 80% | 60% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | - |
| 5 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 62 | 63% | 2.1 | 63 | 34 | +29 | 3.2 | 77% | 57% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | Briton Ferry | 30 | 60 | 57% | 2.0 | 72 | 33 | +39 | 3.5 | 87% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Guilsfield | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 58 | 37 | +21 | 3.2 | 80% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 52 | 53% | 1.7 | 66 | 41 | +25 | 3.6 | 80% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 9 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 51 | 53% | 1.7 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 3.0 | 83% | 63% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 47 | 47% | 1.6 | 64 | 53 | +11 | 3.9 | 87% | 70% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 11 | Afan Lido | 30 | 47 | 43% | 1.6 | 61 | 52 | +9 | 3.8 | 93% | 67% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 12 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 66 | 48 | +18 | 3.8 | 93% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 45 | 43% | 1.5 | 46 | 40 | +6 | 2.9 | 77% | 60% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 14 | Cefn Druids AFC | 30 | 43 | 43% | 1.4 | 47 | 64 | -17 | 3.7 | 90% | 70% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | - |
| 15 | Buckley Town | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 53 | 61 | -8 | 3.8 | 90% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 38 | 33% | 1.3 | 62 | 53 | +9 | 3.8 | 90% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 17 | Pontardawe Town | 30 | 37 | 40% | 1.2 | 51 | 73 | -22 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.4 | - |
| 18 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 3.1 | 83% | 63% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | - |
| 19 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 2.5 | 70% | 47% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | - |
| 20 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 33 | 27% | 1.1 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 3.2 | 87% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 21 | Porthmadog | 30 | 33 | 33% | 1.1 | 36 | 53 | -17 | 3.0 | 87% | 63% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Taffs Well | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 3.5 | 80% | 57% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Goytre United | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 3.7 | 93% | 67% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | - |
| 24 | Abergavenny Town | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 35 | 60 | -25 | 3.2 | 80% | 53% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 25 | Llanidloes Town | 30 | 27 | 23% | 0.9 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 3.5 | 93% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | - |
| 26 | Trefelin | 30 | 27 | 23% | 0.9 | 47 | 70 | -23 | 3.9 | 97% | 83% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | - |
| 27 | Chirk AAA | 30 | 26 | 17% | 0.9 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 2.7 | 77% | 47% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | - |
| 28 | Swansea University | 30 | 26 | 20% | 0.9 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 3.1 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | - |
| 29 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 24 | 23% | 0.8 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 3.3 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.2 | - |
| 30 | Conwy Borough | 30 | 23 | 17% | 0.8 | 33 | 64 | -31 | 3.2 | 83% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.1 | - |
| 31 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 16 | 10% | 0.5 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 3.4 | 93% | 67% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.4 | - |
| 32 | Holyhead Hotspur | 30 | 15 | 7% | 0.5 | 24 | 69 | -45 | 3.1 | 90% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.3 | - |