Carroi’s recent win against Inter Club d’Escaldes offers a brief lift, yet the model still favours an FC Santa Coloma away win. The odds show a 55% chance for the visitors, 27% for a draw and 19% for the home side. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate scoring affair, with the most likely total of two goals carrying a 26% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.6% chance, a tidy reflection of both teams’ balanced attacking and defensive output.
Carroi, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.71 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. FC Santa Coloma, on the road to a weaker side, averages 2.17 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded. This contrast underlines why the visitors are favoured.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.6%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Under 5.5 (95.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.3%) and Home under 1.5 HT goals (93.8%). All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and no other outcome is given a winning chance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Carroi win
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma win
54.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Carroi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
2.00
0.87
1.40
0.73
2.60
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
2.50
0.71
2.00
0.14
3.00
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.79
1.17
1.17
1.25
2.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Santa Coloma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Santa Coloma
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.13
1.80
1.33
1.80
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
1.00
4.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.44
1.44
1.38
1.75
1.50
1.12
vs Weaker (12)
2.33
0.50
2.50
0.33
2.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Carroi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.4%
Under 2.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.7%
Under 3.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
0-1
11.7%
0-2
10.7%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
8.8%
0-3
6.0%
1-0
5.7%
1-3
5.4%
Carroi goals ↓
FC Santa Coloma goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
12%
11%
6.0%
2.5%
1
5.7%
13%
9.6%
5.4%
2.2%
2
3.1%
5.1%
4.3%
2.4%
1.0%
3
0.9%
1.5%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Carroi goals (down), columns = FC Santa Coloma goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2.25
Ranger's
2.00
FC Santa Coloma
1.83
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.42
Casa de Portugal
1.22
Penya Encarnada
1.00
Ordino
0.92
Carroi
0.72
Esperança d'Andorra
0.65
Sporting Escaldes
0.00
Carroi is 1.11 points worse than FC Santa Coloma in terms of average points per game (0.72 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.96
Ranger's
1.92
FC Santa Coloma
1.88
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.29
Casa de Portugal
1.16
Ordino
1.12
Penya Encarnada
0.79
Esperança d'Andorra
0.77
Carroi
0.60
Sporting Escaldes
0.50
Carroi is 1.27 goals worse than FC Santa Coloma in terms of goals scored per game (0.60 vs 1.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Santa Coloma
0.83
Ranger's
0.92
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.00
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.08
Casa de Portugal
1.44
Penya Encarnada
1.71
Ordino
1.75
Esperança d'Andorra
1.85
Carroi
2.20
Sporting Escaldes
2.50
Carroi is 1.37 goals worse than FC Santa Coloma in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Carroi or Draw
45.4%
Avg Implied -
19%
27%
55%
covers Carroi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Carroi or FC Santa Coloma
73.5%
Avg Implied -
19%
27%
55%
covers Carroi + FC Santa Coloma
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Santa Coloma
81.1%
Avg Implied -
19%
27%
55%
covers Draw + FC Santa Coloma
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Carroi over/under 0.5
Over
59.1%
Under
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 1.5
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 2.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 0.5
Over
81.2%
Under
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 1.5
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 2.5
Over
23.6%
Under
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 3.5
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Carroi, so a minus line means Carroi give that many goals of a start and FC Santa Coloma receive them. At -1, Carroi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Carroi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Carroi)
Carroi -2
1.6%
Draw -2
4.9%
FC Santa Coloma +2
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Carroi)
Carroi -1
6.6%
Draw -1
12.3%
FC Santa Coloma +1
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Carroi)
Carroi +1
45.4%
Draw +1
24.0%
FC Santa Coloma -1
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Carroi)
Carroi +2
69.4%
Draw +2
17.2%
FC Santa Coloma -2
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Carroi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.40
0.53
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.08
1.17
0.17
1.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.50
0.43
0.29
0.89
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Santa Coloma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Santa Coloma
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.47
0.47
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.56
0.50
0.62
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
0.08
0.50
0.17
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Carroi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.1%
Under 0.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.6%
Under 1.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.6%
Under 2.5
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Carroi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
29.0%
Under
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 0.5 HT
Over
63.6%
Under
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 1.5 HT
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Carroi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.17
0.73
0.87
0.73
1.47
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.42
0.67
1.17
0.17
1.67
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.06
0.86
0.71
1.11
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Santa Coloma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Santa Coloma
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.73
1.33
0.87
1.00
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.88
0.88
1.12
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (12)
1.75
0.42
2.00
0.17
1.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Carroi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.9%
Under 0.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.7%
Under 1.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.0%
Under 2.5
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Carroi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
32.8%
Under
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 0.5 2H
Over
67.0%
Under
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 1.5 2H
Over
33.9%
Under
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 2.5 2H
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 0.5 HT goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (25)
€4m
RAN (24)
€4m
ACD (25)
€3m
FSC (28)
€3m
PE (26)
€3m
CAR (21)
€2m
ED (16)
€2m
ORD (22)
€2m
SE (1)
€0m
Carroi's squad is €1m less valuable than FC Santa Coloma's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (9)
€2m
FSC (10)
€2m
RAN (8)
€1m
ORD (6)
€1m
ED (6)
€1m
ACD (5)
€1m
PE (6)
€1m
CAR (4)
€0m
SE (1)
€0m
Carroi's attack is €1m less valuable than FC Santa Coloma's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACD (8)
€1m
RAN (4)
€1m
CAR (7)
€1m
ICD (4)
€1m
PE (5)
€1m
FSC (5)
€1m
ED (2)
€0m
ORD (4)
€0m
SE (0)
€0m
Carroi and FC Santa Coloma have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (15)
€2m
RAN (12)
€2m
ACD (12)
€2m
ICD (12)
€2m
FSC (13)
€1m
CAR (10)
€1m
ED (8)
€1m
ORD (12)
€1m
SE (0)
€0m
Carroi and FC Santa Coloma have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Andorra: 1a Divisió 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 1a Divisió stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Esperança d'Andorra
Sporting Escaldes
Penya Encarnada
Ranger's
Ordino
Casa de Portugal