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Catanzaro vs Avellino Result & Analysis

Date: 12/05/2026
Time: 19:00
Final 3-0
Catanzaro
Catanzaro
Vs
57%
24%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Avellino
Avellino
Italy: Serie B
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Catanzaro a 57% win probability against Avellino in the Italy: Serie B on 2026-05-12, with 24% for the draw and 19% for Avellino. The model estimates around 2.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (24%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (98%), Over 21.5 fouls (95%), Over 23.5 fouls (89%), Over 2.5 cards (84%).

Results analysis

Catanzaro finished 3-0 against Avellino (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 57% home win, 24% draw and 19% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (98%), Over 21.5 fouls (95%), Over 23.5 fouls (89%), Over 25.5 fouls (80%), Over 1.5 (80%), Under 11.5 corners (78%). Missed: Over 2.5 cards (84%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Catanzaro win✓ Hit
56.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Avellino win✗ Miss
19.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

CatanzaroCatanzaro

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W31W13L11D11D22D11D42W23L23LH·EMP08/03A·PAD14/03A·CES21/03H·MON06/04A·AVE11/04H·MOD14/04A·JUV18/04H·SPE25/04A·PAL01/05H·BAR08/05
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.402.001.201.671.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.621.692.001.291.172.17
vs Weaker (17)2.001.182.001.122.001.22
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Avellino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AvellinoAvellino

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W32W12L02L11D20W20W01L10WH·PAD07/03A·VIR15/03H·SUD18/03A·SAM22/03A·PAL05/04H·CAT11/04A·MAN18/04H·BAR24/04A·EMP01/05H·MOD08/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.471.381.500.711.43
vs Stronger (8)0.752.001.251.750.252.25
vs Similar (22)1.181.271.421.420.901.10
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Catanzaro) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%014%124%222%316%49%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.7%
Under 2.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.3%
Under 3.5
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.7%
1-0
9.2%
0-0
6.5%
3-1
6.3%
3-0 ✓
6.1%
1-2
5.4%
Catanzaro goals ↓
Avellino goals →
01234
06.5%4.5%2.8%1.0%0.2%
19.2%12%5.4%1.8%0.5%
29.7%9.9%5.1%1.7%0.4%
36.1%6.3%3.2%1.1%0.3%
42.9%3.0%1.5%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Catanzaro goals (down), columns = Avellino goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Venezia
2.16
Frosinone
2.13
Monza
1.98
Palermo
1.88
Catanzaro
1.58
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Cesena
1.21
Padova
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Bari
1.05
Reggiana
0.97
Spezia
0.92
Pescara
0.92
Catanzaro is 0.32 points better than Avellino in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.26).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Venezia
2.03
Frosinone
2.00
Catanzaro
1.63
Monza
1.60
Palermo
1.57
Pescara
1.34
Modena
1.26
Carrarese
1.24
Empoli
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Spezia
1.13
Avellino
1.10
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Bari
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Reggiana
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Catanzaro is 0.53 goals better than Avellino in terms of goals scored per game (1.63 vs 1.10).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Venezia
0.82
Monza
0.88
Frosinone
0.89
Palermo
0.90
Modena
0.95
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Cesena
1.47
Reggiana
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Bari
1.50
Mantova
1.50
Spezia
1.55
Pescara
1.74
Catanzaro is 0.21 goals better than Avellino in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.49).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Venezia
64%
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Monza
52%
Pescara
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Frosinone
50%
Palermo
49%
Spezia
48%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Bari
46%
Reggiana
41%
Sudtirol
41%
Catanzaro is 3.9 percentage points better than Avellino in terms of average possession (54% vs 50%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

CatanzaroCatanzaro

For 5.1 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.7

🚩 Corners

120834924355161557639187117107612910H·BARA·PALH·SPEA·JUVH·MODA·AVEH·MONA·CESA·PADH·EMP
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.5

🟨 Cards

1001121311216455242112224231010633H·BARA·PALH·SPEA·JUVH·MODA·AVEH·MONA·CESA·PADH·EMP
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 17.2 · Total 28.8

⚠️ Fouls

3501312101710201414816101515191215151892625273028242534273335H·BARA·PALH·SPEA·JUVH·MODA·AVEH·MONA·CESA·PADH·EMP
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

AvellinoAvellino

For 4.3 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.4

🚩 Corners

1206248421061139225793661212711241212H·MODA·EMPH·BARA·MANH·CATA·PALA·SAMH·SUDA·VIRH·PAD
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.4

🟨 Cards

1101123221464243561133254110671126H·MODA·EMPH·BARA·MANH·CATA·PALA·SAMH·SUDA·VIRH·PAD
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.2 · Against 16.7 · Total 32.9

⚠️ Fouls

430161522211313121815101514261614281716121631432630252942423328H·MODA·EMPH·BARA·MANH·CATA·PALA·SAMH·SUDA·VIRH·PAD
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

CatanzaroCatanzaro

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.99.18.74.74.94.629.729.929.6
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (23)8.58.68.54.95.24.529.829.330.4
vs Weaker (27)9.29.68.94.64.74.629.730.429.0
% over line44%52%36%62%68%56%96%92%100%
% under line56%48%64%38%32%44%4%8%0%
This opponent (Avellino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AvellinoAvellino

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.09.28.84.95.04.831.231.231.2
vs Stronger (13)7.89.06.54.95.04.829.532.326.2
vs Similar (35)9.39.39.34.95.04.931.630.832.5
vs Weaker (2)11.0-11.04.5-4.535.5-35.5
% over line46%52%40%70%68%72%96%100%92%
% under line54%48%60%30%32%28%4%0%8%
This opponent (Catanzaro) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Pescara
10.6
Carrarese
10.4
Virtus Entella
10.1
Padova
10.1
Frosinone
10.0
Spezia
9.8
Bari
9.8
Palermo
9.7
Empoli
9.5
Mantova
9.5
Cesena
9.4
Reggiana
9.3
Juve Stabia
9.3
Sampdoria
9.2
Monza
9.1
Venezia
9.0
Avellino
9.0
Catanzaro
8.9
Modena
8.9
Sudtirol
8.6

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Spezia
5.4
Carrarese
5.2
Mantova
5.2
Sampdoria
5.1
Pescara
5.0
Avellino
4.9
Palermo
4.8
Frosinone
4.8
Juve Stabia
4.8
Padova
4.8
Reggiana
4.8
Catanzaro
4.7
Modena
4.7
Bari
4.6
Empoli
4.5
Virtus Entella
4.4
Venezia
4.3
Monza
4.3
Sudtirol
4.3
Cesena
4.1

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Sampdoria
32.8
Spezia
32.3
Avellino
31.2
Pescara
31.0
Juve Stabia
30.7
Frosinone
30.3
Sudtirol
30.1
Empoli
29.9
Virtus Entella
29.9
Venezia
29.8
Catanzaro
29.7
Reggiana
29.2
Padova
29.2
Modena
28.8
Carrarese
28.2
Palermo
27.9
Bari
27.9
Monza
27.4
Cesena
26.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
44.6%
Under 9.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
68.1%
Under 3.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
94.8%
Under 21.5
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

CatanzaroCatanzaro

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W10W10W00D21W01L11D21W12LH·EMP08/03A·PAD14/03A·CES21/03H·MON06/04A·AVE11/04H·MOD14/04A·JUV18/04H·SPE25/04A·PAL01/05H·BAR08/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.600.930.670.730.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.850.460.860.430.830.50
vs Weaker (17)0.820.711.000.880.670.56
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Avellino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AvellinoAvellino

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W10W00D01L00D00D00D00D10WH·PAD07/03A·VIR15/03H·SUD18/03A·SAM22/03A·PAL05/04H·CAT11/04A·MAN18/04H·BAR24/04A·EMP01/05H·MOD08/05
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.530.560.440.360.64
vs Stronger (8)0.250.750.500.500.001.00
vs Similar (22)0.550.450.580.420.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Catanzaro) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls97.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls94.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls89.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards84.2%-------✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls79.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.579.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners77.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (30)
€79m
FRO (40)
€55m
MON (34)
€49m
CAT (38)
€46m
SAM (33)
€41m
MOD (35)
€36m
EMP (38)
€36m
PAL (27)
€35m
SPE (40)
€34m
JS (39)
€34m
CES (32)
€28m
REG (43)
€26m
MAN (34)
€25m
CAR (33)
€25m
PES (43)
€22m
AVE (34)
€21m
SUD (33)
€20m
PAD (35)
€20m
BAR (28)
€18m
VE (44)
€16m
Catanzaro's squad is €26m more valuable than Avellino's (€46m vs €21m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAT (18)
€25m
FRO (14)
€22m
MON (11)
€17m
EMP (14)
€15m
VEN (6)
€15m
CES (9)
€15m
SAM (9)
€14m
MOD (8)
€9m
MAN (10)
€9m
BAR (11)
€9m
CAR (8)
€7m
SPE (6)
€7m
PAL (3)
€7m
PES (13)
€6m
JS (9)
€6m
AVE (11)
€5m
VE (13)
€5m
REG (12)
€5m
PAD (10)
€4m
SUD (7)
€3m
Catanzaro's attack is €20m more valuable than Avellino's (€25m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (10)
€35m
SPE (16)
€16m
JS (13)
€16m
PAL (11)
€16m
MON (8)
€13m
FRO (8)
€12m
CAT (5)
€12m
MOD (12)
€11m
PES (12)
€10m
EMP (8)
€7m
VE (13)
€7m
PAD (11)
€7m
AVE (7)
€6m
CAR (11)
€6m
SUD (10)
€5m
SAM (8)
€5m
BAR (7)
€5m
REG (11)
€4m
MAN (6)
€4m
CES (8)
€4m
Catanzaro's midfield is €6m more valuable than Avellino's (€12m vs €6m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (14)
€28m
SAM (16)
€22m
FRO (18)
€21m
MON (15)
€20m
REG (20)
€17m
MOD (15)
€16m
EMP (16)
€13m
JS (17)
€12m
PAL (13)
€12m
MAN (18)
€12m
SUD (16)
€12m
CAR (14)
€11m
SPE (18)
€11m
CES (15)
€10m
CAT (15)
€9m
AVE (16)
€9m
PAD (14)
€9m
PES (18)
€6m
BAR (10)
€4m
VE (18)
€4m
Catanzaro and Avellino have a similar defence value (both €9m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Catanzaro vs Avellino · H/A from CAT
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26AAvellino Vs CAT1-1
13/12/25HCAT Vs Avellino1-0

CatanzaroCatanzaro

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/05/26HCAT Vs Bari2-3
01/05/26APalermo Vs CAT3-2
25/04/26HCAT Vs Spezia4-2
18/04/26AJuve Stabia Vs CAT1-1
14/04/26HCAT Vs Modena2-2
11/04/26AAvellino Vs CAT1-1
06/04/26HCAT Vs Monza1-1
21/03/26ACesena Vs CAT3-1
14/03/26APadova Vs CAT1-3
08/03/26HCAT Vs Empoli3-2

AvellinoAvellino

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/05/26HAVE Vs Modena1-0
01/05/26AEmpoli Vs AVE1-0
24/04/26HAVE Vs Bari2-0
18/04/26AMantova Vs AVE0-2
11/04/26HAVE Vs Catanzaro1-1
05/04/26APalermo Vs AVE2-0
22/03/26ASampdoria Vs AVE2-1
18/03/26HAVE Vs Sudtirol3-2
15/03/26AVirtus Entella Vs AVE1-2
07/03/26HAVE Vs Padova1-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Catanzaro
Catanzaro
Italy: Serie B
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLL1.44
HomeWDDWL1.72
AwayWLDDL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%44%28%
AVG goals2.963.122.80
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %56%52%60%
Over 3.5 %42%48%36%
Scored1.581.801.36
Conceded1.381.321.44
BTTS64%60%68%
Clean Sheet26%32%20%
Corners8.909.128.68
Cards4.744.924.56
Avellino
Avellino
Italy: Serie B
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLW1.24
HomeWWDWW1.52
AwayWLLWL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%44%20%
AVG goals2.422.562.28
Over 1.5 %76%76%76%
Over 2.5 %42%48%36%
Over 3.5 %18%24%12%
Scored1.041.240.84
Conceded1.381.321.44
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet24%32%16%
Corners9.009.248.76
Cards4.925.004.84

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1MonzaMonza4283
57%
2.0
6737+30
2.5
74%
48%
21%
9.1
40%
4.5
63%
27.9
88%
49
1713201.60.9
52%
2VeneziaVenezia3882
63%
2.2
7731+46
2.8
89%
58%
32%
9.2
47%
4.4
71%
30.2
92%
79
1535282.00.8
64%
3FrosinoneFrosinone3881
61%
2.1
7634+42
2.9
84%
61%
37%
10.2
61%
4.9
76%
30.5
97%
55
2212212.00.9
50%
4PalermoPalermo4075
52%
1.9
6336+27
2.5
75%
45%
20%
9.5
50%
5.0
74%
28.3
90%
35
716121.60.9
49%
5CatanzaroCatanzaro4368
42%
1.6
7055+15
2.9
84%
53%
37%
8.7
42%
4.9
65%
30.4
100%
46
251291.61.3
54%
6ModenaModena3955
38%
1.4
4937+12
2.2
74%
49%
10%
9.3
44%
4.6
66%
29.3
90%
36
911161.30.9
50%
7Juve StabiaJuve Stabia4155
29%
1.3
4849-1
2.4
73%
44%
24%
8.8
29%
5.0
74%
29.5
95%
34
616121.21.2
53%
8AvellinoAvellino3949
33%
1.3
4358-15
2.6
77%
46%
23%
9.3
51%
5.0
69%
30.8
97%
21
5691.11.5
50%
9PadovaPadova3846
32%
1.2
3949-10
2.3
61%
39%
21%
9.8
53%
4.8
74%
28.6
97%
20
4791.01.3
48%
10CesenaCesena3846
32%
1.2
4556-11
2.7
79%
53%
29%
9.4
47%
4.1
58%
25.4
82%
28
154101.21.5
50%
11MantovaMantova3846
34%
1.2
4557-12
2.7
71%
53%
26%
9.8
50%
5.3
82%
32.3
100%
25
94121.21.5
57%
12CarrareseCarrarese3844
26%
1.2
4752-5
2.6
74%
50%
29%
10.5
68%
5.1
71%
28.5
87%
25
76111.21.4
51%
13SampdoriaSampdoria3844
29%
1.2
3548-13
2.2
63%
39%
16%
9.2
39%
4.8
70%
32.2
92%
41
145220.91.3
51%
14SudtirolSudtirol4043
20%
1.1
3848-10
2.1
68%
38%
18%
8.2
30%
4.0
54%
30.8
95%
20
35120.91.2
41%
15Virtus EntellaVirtus Entella3842
26%
1.1
3651-15
2.3
74%
37%
18%
9.9
63%
4.4
62%
29.5
95%
16
5740.91.3
46%
16BariBari4042
25%
1.1
3860-22
2.5
78%
50%
20%
9.4
50%
4.7
65%
29.0
85%
18
9540.91.5
46%
17EmpoliEmpoli3841
24%
1.1
4754-7
2.7
76%
47%
32%
10.0
55%
4.5
76%
30.4
92%
36
157131.21.4
48%
18ReggianaReggiana3837
24%
1.0
3656-20
2.4
68%
47%
26%
9.4
42%
4.5
66%
29.4
92%
26
54170.91.5
41%
19PescaraPescara3835
18%
0.9
5166-15
3.1
89%
63%
39%
10.5
63%
5.1
76%
31.3
95%
22
61061.31.7
51%
20SpeziaSpezia3835
21%
0.9
4359-16
2.7
76%
45%
29%
9.9
53%
5.4
82%
31.5
100%
34
716111.11.6
48%
Italy: Serie B 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →

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