PythiaFootballBETA
Catanzaro, sitting pretty with a 63% chance of taking the three points, is the clear favourite to win at home against Bari. The model's high rating stems from the home side's impressive record, especially against similar-strength opponents, where they average 2 goals scored and 1 conceded. Conversely, Bari's away form has been lacklustre, scoring just 0.58 goals on average and conceding 1.67.
The model predicts a 2-0 scoreline for Catanzaro, albeit with a low probability of 11.5%. The expected total goals stand at 2.8, with the most likely total goals being 2. A home win is the model's selection, with a 63% probability, while the draw percentage is 23% and the away win percentage is 14%.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls (92.7%), Over 1.5 goals (78.6%), and Over 3.5 cards (72.7%).
In a major upset, Bari defeated Catanzaro 2-3, extending their run of inconsistent form. The win was a surprise, as Catanzaro had been on a high note, coming off a 2-0 victory over Monza. However, their home advantage and strong recent form, with an average of two goals scored per game, failed to materialize. The pre-match favourite, Catanzaro, had a 63% chance of winning, but the model's selection, a home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as Catanzaro did not come through. The model's selection, home win, had a 63% probability of occurring. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks, including Over 21.5 fouls (92.7%) and Over 1.5 (78.6%), both hit, while Over 3.5 cards (72.7%) missed.
Catanzaro| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 1.33 | 1.87 | 1.07 | 1.67 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.58 | 1.58 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 2.17 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 1.89 | 1.17 | 1.78 | 1.11 | 2.00 | 1.22 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Bari| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.53 | 1.19 | 1.38 | 0.64 | 1.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.77 | 1.58 | 0.93 | 1.50 | 0.58 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 2.00 | 1.25 | 3.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Bari goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 11% | 9.8% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 7.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
CatanzaroBariCatanzaro| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.9 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 29.8 | 30.1 | 29.6 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 8.5 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 30.0 | 29.7 | 30.3 |
| vs Weaker (27) | 9.2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 29.7 | 30.4 | 29.0 |
| % over line | 44% | 54% | 35% | 62% | 71% | 54% | 96% | 92% | 100% |
| % under line | 56% | 46% | 65% | 38% | 29% | 46% | 4% | 8% | 0% |
Bari| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 28.2 | 28.7 | 27.7 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 9.0 | - | 9.0 | 6.0 | - | 6.0 | 31.0 | - | 31.0 |
| vs Similar (41) | 10.0 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 28.0 | 29.0 | 27.1 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 8.8 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 28.5 | 27.0 | 30.0 |
| % over line | 56% | 64% | 48% | 66% | 68% | 64% | 82% | 88% | 76% |
| % under line | 44% | 36% | 52% | 34% | 32% | 36% | 18% | 12% | 24% |
Catanzaro| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.57 | 0.87 | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.83 | 0.33 | 0.83 | 0.17 | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Bari| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.35 | 0.58 | 0.36 | 0.64 | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.25 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 96.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 92.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 85.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 84.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 78.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 74.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 25.5 fouls | 74.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 06/04/25 | H | 3-3 | |
| 18/10/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/02/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 24/09/23 | A | 2-2 |
Catanzaro| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 04/03/26 | A | 3-3 |
Bari| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 24/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 18/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 04/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Monza | 42 | 83 | 57% | 2.0 | 67 | 37 | +30 | 2.5 | 74% | 48% | 21% | 9.1 | 40% | 4.5 | 63% | 27.9 | 88% | 49 | 17 | 13 | 20 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 2 |  Venezia | 38 | 82 | 63% | 2.2 | 77 | 31 | +46 | 2.8 | 89% | 58% | 32% | 9.2 | 47% | 4.4 | 71% | 30.2 | 92% | 79 | 15 | 35 | 28 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 64% |
| 3 |  Frosinone | 38 | 81 | 61% | 2.1 | 76 | 34 | +42 | 2.9 | 84% | 61% | 37% | 10.2 | 61% | 4.9 | 76% | 30.5 | 97% | 55 | 22 | 12 | 21 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 50% |
| 4 |  Palermo | 40 | 75 | 52% | 1.9 | 63 | 36 | +27 | 2.5 | 75% | 45% | 20% | 9.5 | 50% | 5.0 | 74% | 28.3 | 90% | 35 | 7 | 16 | 12 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 49% |
| 5 | Catanzaro | 43 | 68 | 42% | 1.6 | 70 | 55 | +15 | 2.9 | 84% | 53% | 37% | 8.7 | 42% | 4.9 | 65% | 30.4 | 100% | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 6 |  Modena | 39 | 55 | 38% | 1.4 | 49 | 37 | +12 | 2.2 | 74% | 49% | 10% | 9.3 | 44% | 4.6 | 66% | 29.3 | 90% | 36 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 50% |
| 7 |  Juve Stabia | 41 | 55 | 29% | 1.3 | 48 | 49 | -1 | 2.4 | 73% | 44% | 24% | 8.8 | 29% | 5.0 | 74% | 29.5 | 95% | 34 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 8 |  Avellino | 39 | 49 | 33% | 1.3 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 2.6 | 77% | 46% | 23% | 9.3 | 51% | 5.0 | 69% | 30.8 | 97% | 21 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 9 |  Padova | 38 | 46 | 32% | 1.2 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 2.3 | 61% | 39% | 21% | 9.8 | 53% | 4.8 | 74% | 28.6 | 97% | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 48% |
| 10 |  Cesena | 38 | 46 | 32% | 1.2 | 45 | 56 | -11 | 2.7 | 79% | 53% | 29% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.1 | 58% | 25.4 | 82% | 28 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 11 |  Mantova | 38 | 46 | 34% | 1.2 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 2.7 | 71% | 53% | 26% | 9.8 | 50% | 5.3 | 82% | 32.3 | 100% | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 57% |
| 12 |  Carrarese | 38 | 44 | 26% | 1.2 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 2.6 | 74% | 50% | 29% | 10.5 | 68% | 5.1 | 71% | 28.5 | 87% | 25 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 13 |  Sampdoria | 38 | 44 | 29% | 1.2 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 2.2 | 63% | 39% | 16% | 9.2 | 39% | 4.8 | 70% | 32.2 | 92% | 41 | 14 | 5 | 22 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 14 |  Sudtirol | 40 | 43 | 20% | 1.1 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 2.1 | 68% | 38% | 18% | 8.2 | 30% | 4.0 | 54% | 30.8 | 95% | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 41% |
| 15 |  Virtus Entella | 38 | 42 | 26% | 1.1 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 2.3 | 74% | 37% | 18% | 9.9 | 63% | 4.4 | 62% | 29.5 | 95% | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 16 | Bari | 40 | 42 | 25% | 1.1 | 38 | 60 | -22 | 2.5 | 78% | 50% | 20% | 9.4 | 50% | 4.7 | 65% | 29.0 | 85% | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 17 |  Empoli | 38 | 41 | 24% | 1.1 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 2.7 | 76% | 47% | 32% | 10.0 | 55% | 4.5 | 76% | 30.4 | 92% | 36 | 15 | 7 | 13 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 18 |  Reggiana | 38 | 37 | 24% | 1.0 | 36 | 56 | -20 | 2.4 | 68% | 47% | 26% | 9.4 | 42% | 4.5 | 66% | 29.4 | 92% | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 41% |
| 19 |  Pescara | 38 | 35 | 18% | 0.9 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 3.1 | 89% | 63% | 39% | 10.5 | 63% | 5.1 | 76% | 31.3 | 95% | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 51% |
| 20 |  Spezia | 38 | 35 | 21% | 0.9 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 2.7 | 76% | 45% | 29% | 9.9 | 53% | 5.4 | 82% | 31.5 | 100% | 34 | 7 | 16 | 11 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 48% |