The match between Celik and FK Sarajevo is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home win 35%, draw 29%, away win 36%. The expected total goals sit at 2.6, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.7% chance. Celik, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Sarajevo, on the road versus a weaker side, averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.09 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.4%), Under 5.5 (94.9%), Under 4.5 (87.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (85.7%) and Away under 2.5 goals (85.1%). Celik’s recent form shows a draw after a 0-0 against Sloga Doboj, whereas Sarajevo returns from a 0-1 loss to Zrinjski. The contest remains open, with the model’s pick pointing to a modest away victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Čelik win
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo win
37.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Čelik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
1.22
1.40
0.80
0.25
1.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (5)
1.40
0.60
1.75
0.75
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Sarajevo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.77
1.44
0.50
1.21
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.56
1.33
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (21)
1.48
0.86
1.50
0.50
1.45
1.18
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Čelik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.4%
Under 2.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.5%
Under 3.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-2
8.4%
0-1
8.4%
0-0
8.3%
2-1
8.0%
1-0
7.9%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
5.8%
Čelik goals ↓
FK Sarajevo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
8.4%
6.6%
3.0%
1.0%
1
7.9%
14%
8.4%
3.8%
1.3%
2
5.8%
8.0%
5.4%
2.5%
0.8%
3
2.5%
3.4%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Čelik goals (down), columns = FK Sarajevo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Čelik is 0.44 points worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Čelik is 0.43 goals worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Čelik is 0.06 goals worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Čelik or Draw
62.5%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Čelik + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Čelik or FK Sarajevo
71.4%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Čelik + FK Sarajevo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FK Sarajevo
66.1%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Draw + FK Sarajevo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Čelik over/under 0.5
Over
72.4%
Under
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 1.5
Over
36.8%
Under
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 2.5
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5
Over
74.4%
Under
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Čelik, so a minus line means Čelik give that many goals of a start and FK Sarajevo receive them. At -1, Čelik must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Čelik win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Čelik)
Čelik -2
5.3%
Draw -2
10.1%
FK Sarajevo +2
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Čelik)
Čelik -1
15.4%
Draw -1
18.5%
FK Sarajevo +1
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Čelik)
Čelik +1
62.5%
Draw +1
19.7%
FK Sarajevo -1
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Čelik)
Čelik +2
82.2%
Draw +2
11.4%
FK Sarajevo -2
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Čelik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
0.56
0.80
0.40
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
44% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Sarajevo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.27
0.88
0.19
0.29
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.22
1.17
0.33
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.48
0.29
0.70
0.10
0.27
0.45
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Čelik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Čelik over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Čelik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.20
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
44% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Sarajevo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.56
0.31
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.11
0.33
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (21)
1.00
0.57
0.80
0.40
1.18
0.73
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Čelik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Čelik over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Čelik's squad is €5m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€4m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Čelik's attack is €2m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Čelik's midfield is €2m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Čelik's defence is €2m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€1m vs €3m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zrinjski
Borac Banja Luka
Siroki Brijeg
Sloga Doboj
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Velež
BSK Banja Luka
Radnik Bijeljina