Celik are tipped to win, the model picking a home victory with a 57% chance, while the draw sits at 27% and Radnik Bijeljina’s chances are 16%. The expected total is 2.4 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Celik, with a 13.7% probability. Celik’s home form shows they average 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Radnik Bijeljina, playing away, averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded to similar teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.2%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Under 5.5 (96.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.7%), Home +2 handicap (94.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.6%) and Under 4.5 (90.4%). The home win percentage is 57%, the draw 27% and the away win 16%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Čelik win
55.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina win
17.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Čelik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
1.22
1.40
0.80
0.25
1.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (5)
1.40
0.60
1.75
0.75
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.17
1.13
1.07
0.47
1.27
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.43
1.00
1.38
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.94
1.29
0.71
0.67
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Čelik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.3%
Under 1.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.0%
Under 2.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.1%
Under 3.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.7%
No
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.5%
1-1
12.7%
2-0
11.8%
0-0
10.2%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
6.3%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
5.0%
Čelik goals ↓
Radnik Bijeljina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
6.0%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
1
14%
13%
4.5%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.3%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
3
6.3%
5.0%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.6%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Čelik goals (down), columns = Radnik Bijeljina goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Čelik is 0.39 points better than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Čelik is 0.32 goals better than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Čelik is 0.16 goals better than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Čelik or Draw
83.0%
Avg Implied -
56%
27%
17%
covers Čelik + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Čelik or Radnik Bijeljina
72.9%
Avg Implied -
56%
27%
17%
covers Čelik + Radnik Bijeljina
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Radnik Bijeljina
44.1%
Avg Implied -
56%
27%
17%
covers Draw + Radnik Bijeljina
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Čelik over/under 0.5
Over
80.0%
Under
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 1.5
Over
47.9%
Under
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 2.5
Over
22.0%
Under
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 3.5
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5
Over
54.4%
Under
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Čelik, so a minus line means Čelik give that many goals of a start and Radnik Bijeljina receive them. At -1, Čelik must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Čelik win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Čelik)
Čelik -2
13.3%
Draw -2
17.7%
Radnik Bijeljina +2
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Čelik)
Čelik -1
30.9%
Draw -1
25.0%
Radnik Bijeljina +1
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Čelik)
Čelik +1
83.0%
Draw +1
11.6%
Radnik Bijeljina -1
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Čelik)
Čelik +2
94.6%
Draw +2
4.2%
Radnik Bijeljina -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Čelik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
0.56
0.80
0.40
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
44% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.60
0.47
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.50
0.43
0.43
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Čelik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.1%
Under 0.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.2%
Under 1.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.3%
Under 2.5
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Čelik over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.8%
Under
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.3%
Under
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Čelik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.20
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
44% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.53
0.60
0.20
0.73
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
0.93
0.25
0.88
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.44
0.86
0.29
0.22
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Čelik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.7%
Under 0.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.1%
Under 1.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.8%
Under 2.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Čelik over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.7%
Under
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 1.5 2H
Over
26.7%
Under
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.8%
Under
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Čelik and Radnik Bijeljina have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Čelik's attack is €1m less valuable than Radnik Bijeljina's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Čelik and Radnik Bijeljina have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Čelik and Radnik Bijeljina have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zrinjski
Borac Banja Luka
Siroki Brijeg
FK Sarajevo
Sloga Doboj
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Velež
BSK Banja Luka