Celje are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model assigning a 45% chance of a win, 29% for a draw and 26% for a Koper victory. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.7% probability. Celje have been scoring 1.71 goals and conceding only 1.0 at home against teams of similar strength, while Koper, on a two-game winning streak, averages 1.38 goals and 1.5 conceded on the road. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 85.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.7%, Under 3.5 at 75.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 75.6%, Over 21.5 fouls at 73.1%, Over 1.5 at 72.6% and Over 8.5 corners at 70.1%. Celje’s recent form shows a shaky start after a 1-4 loss, whereas Koper are riding a two-game winning run. The match is expected to favour Celje’s home advantage.
Results analysis
Celje’s win extended their recent form, turning a defeat into a victory after a 1-4 loss to Brinje-Grosuplje. The model had picked a home win at 45% probability, and the result confirmed that call. The final score was 2-0, a clear home win. The model’s selection of “Under 3.5” hit, as did “Under 5.5 cards” and “Over 1.5” goals, each with a 75.6% probability. “Over 19.5 fouls” missed at 85.2%, “Over 2.5 cards” missed at 78.7%, “Over 21.5 fouls” missed at 73.1%, and “Over 8.5 corners” missed at 70.1%. The predictions were mixed, with only three of the eight selections proving correct.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Celje win✓ Hit
45.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Koper win✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Celje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
0.83
1.86
0.86
2.38
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.86
1.07
1.71
1.00
2.00
1.14
vs Weaker (16)
2.38
0.62
2.00
0.71
2.67
0.56
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.30
1.53
1.40
1.33
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.61
1.33
1.80
1.20
1.38
1.50
vs Weaker (12)
1.17
1.25
1.00
1.80
1.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.6%
Under 1.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.8%
Under 2.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.4%
Under 3.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
10.6%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
9.1%
2-0 ✓
8.6%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
4.8%
Celje goals ↓
Koper goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
7.4%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.6%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.6%
9.1%
4.8%
1.7%
0.4%
3
4.2%
4.4%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.5%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Celje goals (down), columns = Koper goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Celje is 0.86 points better than Koper in terms of average points per game (2.19 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Celje is 0.67 goals better than Koper in terms of goals scored per game (2.08 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Celje is 0.42 goals better than Koper in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Celje is 15.5 percentage points worse than Koper in terms of average possession (41% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Celje
For 5.5 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 9.7 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Koper
For 4.6 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 13.4 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.6
10.5
3.1
2.9
3.3
23.3
23.9
22.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
10.0
9.0
10.9
4.0
3.7
4.2
22.8
23.4
22.4
vs Weaker (30)
10.2
10.2
10.1
2.6
2.4
2.8
23.8
24.3
23.3
% over line
54%
56%
52%
42%
42%
42%
66%
65%
67%
% under line
46%
44%
48%
58%
58%
58%
34%
35%
33%
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.2
9.7
2.6
2.4
2.8
25.1
23.8
26.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
9.2
8.8
9.6
2.9
2.3
3.7
24.6
22.7
26.5
vs Weaker (21)
9.8
9.7
9.8
2.2
2.6
1.8
25.8
25.4
26.4
% over line
55%
44%
67%
38%
27%
50%
81%
76%
87%
% under line
45%
56%
33%
62%
73%
50%
19%
24%
13%
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.2
Celje
10.0
Aluminij
9.9
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.5
Koper
9.4
Maribor
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.2
NK Domzale
4.8
Maribor
4.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.4
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.1
Celje
4.0
Bravo
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
26.8
Aluminij
26.5
Maribor
25.5
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.1
Bravo
24.9
Koper
24.9
Mura
24.8
Celje
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.0%
Under 9.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
60.1%
Under 3.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
73.1%
Under 21.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Celje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.27
0.79
0.29
0.94
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.36
0.71
0.43
1.00
0.29
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.19
0.86
0.14
0.89
0.22
Clean sheet %
77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.67
0.60
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.67
0.70
0.60
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (12)
0.50
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.43
0.43
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Celje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Celje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.57
1.07
0.57
1.44
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.71
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (16)
1.50
0.44
1.14
0.57
1.78
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.67
0.87
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.72
0.80
0.70
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (12)
0.67
0.75
0.40
1.20
0.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Celje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celje · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Nikita Iosifov17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Danijel Šturm12%
Ivica Vidović12%
Darko Hrka10%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitaliy Lisakovich50%
Darko Hrka40%
Matija Boben33%
Ivan Ćalušić33%
Franko Kovačević25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Damjan Vuklišević17%
Juanjo Nieto17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Papa Daniel12%
Łukasz Bejger9%
Žan-Luk Leban9%
Armandas Kučys0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
Milot Avdyli0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vitaliy Lisakovich25%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Milot Avdyli17%
Darko Hrka10%
Juanjo Nieto8%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Franko Kovačević0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Ivica Vidović12%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Darko Hrka0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
Celje's squad is €6m more valuable than Koper's (€14m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Celje's attack is €4m more valuable than Koper's (€7m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Celje and Koper have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
Celje's defence is €3m more valuable than Koper's (€6m vs €3m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Maribor
Olimpija Ljubljana
Bravo
NK Domzale
Mura
Rogaška
Radomlje
Aluminij
Nafta