Celje vs Maribor Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026

Time: 18:15

Final 1-1

Celje

57%

24%

18%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Maribor

Slovenia: 1. SNL

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U

10 Top picks for this game 11 Squad value 12 Games History 13 Overall Statistics 14 League Table

Match preview & prediction

Celje are expected to win this match, with a recent-form storyline of coming off a win against Olimpija Ljubljana. The model predicts a home win, with a 57% probability of Celje taking the three points. A draw is possible, with a 24% chance, while Maribor's away win is the least likely outcome at 18%. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 11.6% probability.

At home, Celje have scored an average of 1.75 goals and conceded 0.75 goals against similar opponents. In contrast, Maribor have averaged 0.43 goals when playing away against similar opponents, while conceding 1.29 goals.

The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals at 79.1%, which has hit. Other model selections include the Home win at 57%, the Draw at 24%, and the Away win at 18%. The home win percentage is 57%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 18%.

Results analysis

A surprising draw in Slovenia's top tier, as Celje and Maribor played out a 1-1 stalemate. The win extends Celje's run of form, having come off the back of a win against Olimpija Ljubljana. Meanwhile, Maribor's unbeaten streak in their last 5 matches came to an end. The pre-match favourite, Celje's home win, did not come through, with the model's selection ultimately being wrong. The model had picked Celje's home win, but with a low pre-match probability of 57%. The model's selection missed, and their call was incorrect. The model's other selection, Over 1.5, hit, with a pre-match probability of 79.1%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Celje win✗ Miss

57.5%

Avg Implied 39.2% · @ 2.33

Edge

+18.3%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

2.48

Betano

2.37

Marathonbet

2.35

Dafabet

2.35

1xBet

2.35

Draw✓ Hit

24.3%

Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.48

Edge

-1.9%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

3.66

10Bet

3.60

BetVictor

3.60

Dafabet

3.60

Betano

3.55

Maribor win✗ Miss

18.2%

Avg Implied 34.6% · @ 2.63

Edge

-16.4%

Best 5 market prices

Dafabet

2.75

Bet365

2.70

Superbet

2.70

Pinnacle

2.68

Betano

2.67

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Celje

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.7

Avg scored

2.5

Avg conceded

1.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	2.03	1.30	2.19	1.19	1.86	1.43
vs Stronger (2)	1.00	2.00	0.00	4.00	2.00	0.00
vs Similar (7)	1.86	1.86	2.00	0.67	1.75	2.75
vs Weaker (21)	2.19	1.05	2.42	1.08	1.89	1.00
Clean sheet %	33% (+7pp vs league)

This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Maribor

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.4

Avg scored

1.2

Avg conceded

1.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.67	1.07	2.57	0.71	0.88	1.38
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (10)	1.00	1.30	2.25	1.00	0.17	1.50
vs Weaker (20)	2.00	0.95	2.70	0.60	1.30	1.30
Clean sheet %	43% (+17pp vs league)

This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

79.1%

@ 1.13-2.1%

Under 1.5

20.9%

@ 4.91+2.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.16

Betano

1.16

10Bet

1.15

888Sport

1.14

Bet365

1.14

Under

Betfair

5.50

Pinnacle

5.21

888Sport

5.00

10Bet

5.00

Bet365

5.00

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

54.7%

@ 1.49-7.1%

Under 2.5

45.3%

@ 2.42+7.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.54

Bet365

1.53

Betano

1.52

888Sport

1.50

BetVictor

1.50

Under

Betfair

2.60

Pinnacle

2.50

10Bet

2.50

Betano

2.45

888Sport

2.45

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

32.4%

@ 2.22-9.4%

Under 3.5

67.6%

@ 1.59+9.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Unibet

2.28

Pinnacle

2.27

Bet365

2.25

Betano

2.22

Betfair

2.20

Under

Pinnacle

1.65

10Bet

1.62

Betano

1.62

888Sport

1.62

1xBet

1.60

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

54.2%

@ 1.41-10.9%

45.8%

@ 2.63+10.9%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

888Sport

1.44

Superbet

1.44

Bet365

1.44

William Hil

1.44

Betano

1.42

Betfair

2.88

BetVictor

2.70

1xBet

2.66

Betano

2.65

Bet365

2.62

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1 ✓

11.6%@ 6.90+5.1%

2-0

10.1%@ 13.50+6.8%

2-1

9.9%@ 8.54+4.7%

1-0

9.6%@ 11.11+5.6%

0-0

6.7%@ 15.42+3.8%

3-0

6.4%@ 22.90+4.4%

3-1

6.2%@ 14.82+3.2%

1-2

5.2%@ 9.23+0.3%

Celje goals ↓

	Maribor goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.7%	4.5%	2.7%	0.9%	0.2%
1	9.6%	12%	5.2%	1.7%	0.4%
2	10%	9.9%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%
3	6.4%	6.2%	3.1%	1.0%	0.2%
4	3.0%	2.9%	1.5%	0.5%	0.1%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Celje goals (down), columns = Maribor goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Celje

2.18

Nafta

2.00

Koper

1.97

Bravo

1.82

Maribor

1.61

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.58

Radomlje

1.32

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.26

Aluminij

1.06

Mura

0.91

Celje is 0.57 points better than Maribor in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 1.61).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Celje

2.50

Koper

2.09

Bravo

1.82

Maribor

1.73

Radomlje

1.47

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.42

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.25

Aluminij

1.24

Mura

1.03

Nafta

0.50

Celje is 0.77 goals better than Maribor in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 1.73).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Nafta

0.00

Celje

0.94

Maribor

1.21

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.21

Koper

1.26

Bravo

1.50

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.61

Mura

1.62

Aluminij

1.79

Radomlje

1.85

Celje is 0.27 goals better than Maribor in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.21).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Celje

For 4.4 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.3

🚩 Corners

ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

For 2.1 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.9

🟨 Cards

ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

For 12.3 · Against 16.1 · Total 28.4

⚠️ Fouls

ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Maribor

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Celje

Split	Corners			Cards			Fouls
Split	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy
Overall (50)	9.1	10.2	8.0	1.1	1.3	0.9	27.8	27.8	27.8
vs Stronger (3)	12.7	13.0	12.0	4.3	5.5	2.0	24.3	25.0	23.0
vs Similar (13)	7.1	7.3	7.0	2.4	2.1	2.7	29.0	31.7	27.0
vs Weaker (34)	10.5	13.0	8.0	0.4	0.5	0.2	29.0	22.0	36.0
% over line	42%	50%	33%	20%	23%	17%	100%	100%	100%
% under line	58%	50%	67%	80%	77%	83%	0%	0%	0%

This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Maribor

Split	Corners			Cards			Fouls
Split	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy
Overall (50)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (18)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Weaker (32)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
% over line	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	-	-	-
% under line	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	-	-	-

This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game

Mura

11.1

Aluminij

10.1

Olimpija Ljubljana

9.7

Bravo

9.6

Celje

9.2

Koper

9.2

Maribor

9.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game

Aluminij

5.0

Celje

4.8

Maribor

4.7

Olimpija Ljubljana

4.7

Mura

4.2

Koper

4.0

Bravo

3.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game

Aluminij

27.0

Maribor

25.2

Olimpija Ljubljana

25.2

Koper

24.9

Bravo

24.7

Celje

24.7

Mura

24.2

Corners O/U 9.5

Over 9.5

53.7%

@ 1.83+3.0%

Under 9.5

46.3%

@ 1.88-3.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.90

Superbet

1.85

Betano

1.85

Marathonbet

1.83

1xBet

1.82

Under

Bet365

1.98

10Bet

1.90

Pinnacle

1.88

1xBet

1.88

Betano

1.85

Cards O/U 3.5

Over 3.5

62.4%

Under 3.5

37.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Fouls O/U 21.5

Over 21.5

75.9%

Under 21.5

24.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Celje

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.2

Avg scored

1.4

Avg conceded

0.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.10	0.70	1.00	0.81	1.21	0.57
vs Stronger (2)	1.00	1.50	0.00	3.00	2.00	0.00
vs Similar (7)	1.00	0.57	1.67	0.33	0.50	0.75
vs Weaker (21)	1.14	0.67	0.92	0.75	1.44	0.56
Clean sheet %	50% (+24pp vs league)

This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Maribor

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.0

Avg scored

0.4

Avg conceded

0.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.97	0.43	1.43	0.14	0.56	0.69
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (10)	0.40	0.50	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.83
vs Weaker (20)	1.25	0.40	1.60	0.20	0.90	0.60
Clean sheet %	60% (+34pp vs league)

This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

0.0%

Under 0.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

0.0%

Under 1.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

0.0%

Under 2.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Celje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Celje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Celje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 19.5 fouls	87.1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Over 2.5 cards	80.4%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Over 1.5	79.1%	1.13	Pinnacle 1.16	Betano 1.16	10Bet 1.15	888Sport 1.14	Bet365 1.14	-2.1%	✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls	75.9%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Under 5.5 cards	73.5%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Under 11.5 corners	70.2%	1.28	1xBet 1.29	Marathonbet 1.27	-	-	-	-0.6%	-

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

CEL (31)

€14m

OL (27)

€12m

MAR (26)

€10m

KOP (27)

€8m

Celje's squad is €4m more valuable than Maribor's (€14m vs €10m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

CEL (12)

€7m

OL (11)

€6m

MAR (10)

€5m

KOP (10)

€3m

Celje's attack is €2m more valuable than Maribor's (€7m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

KOP (7)

€2m

MAR (6)

€2m

CEL (4)

€1m

OL (3)

€1m

Celje and Maribor have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

CEL (15)

€6m

OL (13)

€5m

MAR (10)

€3m

KOP (10)

€3m

Celje's defence is €3m more valuable than Maribor's (€6m vs €3m).

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings

CEL wins

Draws

MAR wins

Head-to-head

Celje vs Maribor · H/A from CEL

Date	H/A	Game	Score
04/04/26	H	CEL Vs Maribor	1-0
01/02/26	A	Maribor Vs CEL	3-3
27/09/25	H	CEL Vs Maribor	3-0
20/07/25	A	Maribor Vs CEL	1-2
07/05/25	A	Maribor Vs CEL	1-1
08/02/25	H	CEL Vs Maribor	1-2
06/10/24	A	Maribor Vs CEL	1-2
18/09/24	H	CEL Vs Maribor	2-1

Celje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
28/07/26	H	CEL Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë	1-1
22/07/26	A	Egnatia Rrogozhinë Vs CEL	3-3
17/07/26	H	CEL Vs Mura	2-2
22/05/26	A	Primorje Vs CEL	0-4
16/05/26	H	CEL Vs Koper	1-2
02/05/26	H	CEL Vs Bravo	2-3
26/04/26	H	CEL Vs Aluminij	5-0
19/04/26	A	Mura Vs CEL	0-2
15/04/26	H	CEL Vs Olimpija Ljubljana	2-0
11/04/26	A	Radomlje Vs CEL	1-3

Maribor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
25/07/26	H	MAR Vs Brinje-Grosuplje	3-0
19/07/26	A	Aluminij Vs MAR	0-0
23/05/26	H	MAR Vs Aluminij	3-0
17/05/26	A	Mura Vs MAR	2-1
03/05/26	A	Radomlje Vs MAR	2-1
26/04/26	A	Bravo Vs MAR	3-0
18/04/26	H	MAR Vs Primorje	2-0
14/04/26	A	Koper Vs MAR	3-1
04/04/26	A	Celje Vs MAR	1-0
20/03/26	A	Aluminij Vs MAR	1-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Celje

Slovenia: 1. SNL

Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LWDDD	1.98
Home	WLLDD	2.04
Away	WWWWD	1.92

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	60%	60%	60%
AVG goals	3.44	3.28	3.60
Over 1.5 %	86%	80%	92%
Over 2.5 %	70%	68%	72%
Over 3.5 %	48%	48%	48%
Scored	2.28	2.20	2.36
Conceded	1.16	1.08	1.24
BTTS	54%	60%	48%
Clean Sheet	40%	36%	44%
Corners	9.08	10.17	8.00
Cards	4.46	5.67	3.43

Maribor

Slovenia: 1. SNL

Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LLWDW	1.60
Home	DWWWW	2.04
Away	LLLLD	1.19

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	44%	58%	31%
AVG goals	2.74	3.29	2.23
Over 1.5 %	78%	88%	69%
Over 2.5 %	52%	62%	42%
Over 3.5 %	26%	42%	12%
Scored	1.64	2.33	1.00
Conceded	1.10	0.96	1.23
BTTS	52%	50%	54%
Clean Sheet	32%	46%	19%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 14. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Maribor	5	9	40%	1.8	7	2	+5	1.8	80%	20%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	10	5	2	3	1.4	0.4	-
2	Celje	4	8	50%	2.0	7	4	+3	2.8	75%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	14	7	1	6	1.8	1.0	-
3	Bravo	5	8	40%	1.6	5	5	+0	2.0	80%	40%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.0	-
4	Nafta	5	7	40%	1.4	10	8	+2	3.6	100%	60%	40%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.6	-
5	Mura	5	7	40%	1.4	8	11	-3	3.8	80%	80%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.6	2.2	-
6	Koper	5	6	20%	1.2	5	5	+0	2.0	80%	20%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	8	3	2	3	1.0	1.0	-
7	Aluminij	4	5	25%	1.2	4	3	+1	1.8	50%	25%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	0.8	-
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	5	5	20%	1.0	5	7	-2	2.4	100%	40%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.4	-
9	Radomlje	5	4	20%	0.8	7	10	-3	3.4	100%	80%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	2.0	-
10	Olimpija Ljubljana	5	4	20%	0.8	2	5	-3	1.4	40%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	12	6	1	5	0.4	1.0	-

Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

← all matches

Celje vs Maribor Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Celje

Maribor

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Celje

🚩 Corners

🟨 Cards

⚠️ Fouls

Maribor

🚩 Corners

🟨 Cards

⚠️ Fouls

Celje

Maribor

🚩 Total Corners

🟨 Total Cards

⚠️ Total Fouls

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Celje

Maribor

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Celje

Maribor

📊 13. Overall Statistics

🏆 14. League Table

A Pro feature