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Celje vs Mura Result & Analysis

Date: 17/07/2026
Time: 18:15
Final 2-2
Celje
Celje
Vs
73%
17%
10%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mura
Mura
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Celje a 73% win probability against Mura in the Slovenia: 1. SNL on 2026-07-17, with 17% for the draw and 10% for Mura. The model estimates around 3.6 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (21%) and 2-0 the most likely scoreline (9.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (88%), Over 21.5 fouls (76%), Home win (73%).

Results analysis

Celje finished 2-2 against Mura (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 73% home win, 17% draw and 10% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (88%). Missed: Home win (73%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Celje win✗ Miss
72.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
16.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mura win✗ Miss
10.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

CeljeCelje

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W51W10W31W20W20W50W23L12L40WA·AEK19/03H·PRI22/03H·MAR04/04A·RAD11/04H·OLI15/04A·MUR19/04H·ALU26/04H·BRA02/05H·KOP16/05A·PRI22/05
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.232.251.121.711.36
vs Stronger (2)1.002.000.004.002.000.00
vs Similar (8)1.881.752.000.751.752.75
vs Weaker (20)2.150.952.551.001.670.89
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MuraMura

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L20W00D12L12L02L01L20W21W23LA·MAR14/03H·RAD21/03H·OLI04/04H·BRA11/04A·ALU16/04H·CEL19/04H·KOP03/05A·PRI10/05H·MAR17/05A·RAD22/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.601.191.191.072.07
vs Stronger (14)0.641.790.881.250.332.50
vs Similar (16)1.561.441.501.121.621.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%09%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.0%
Under 1.5
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.5%
Under 2.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.2%
Under 3.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.4%
No
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.7%
2-1
9.1%
3-0
8.6%
3-1
8.1%
1-1
7.6%
1-0
6.6%
4-0
5.7%
4-1
5.3%
Celje goals ↓
Mura goals →
01234
03.5%1.9%1.2%0.4%0.1%
16.6%7.6%3.3%1.0%0.2%
29.7%9.1%4.3%1.4%0.3%
38.6%8.1%3.8%1.2%0.3%
45.7%5.3%2.5%0.8%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Celje goals (down), columns = Mura goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.18
Nafta
2.00
Koper
1.97
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.61
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.58
Radomlje
1.32
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.26
Aluminij
1.06
Mura
0.91
Celje is 1.26 points better than Mura in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 0.91).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.50
Koper
2.09
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.73
Radomlje
1.47
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.42
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.25
Aluminij
1.24
Mura
1.03
Nafta
0.50
Celje is 1.47 goals better than Mura in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 1.03).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.00
Celje
0.94
Maribor
1.21
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.21
Koper
1.26
Bravo
1.50
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.61
Mura
1.62
Aluminij
1.79
Radomlje
1.85
Celje is 0.68 goals better than Mura in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.62).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

CeljeCelje

For 4.2 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.1

ðŸšĐ Corners

13011185453785255336121391013789A·AEKH·AEKH·DRIA·DRIH·SHEA·HNKA·SIGH·LEG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.8

ðŸŸĻ Cards

80112234322622221324758444A·AEKH·AEKH·DRIA·DRIH·SHEA·HNKA·SIGH·LEG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 15.9 · Total 27.9

⚠ïļ Fouls

40013101410182212171012111482810142324402922253624A·AEKH·AEKH·DRIA·DRIH·SHEA·HNKA·SIGH·LEG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

MuraMura

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

CeljeCelje

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.110.28.01.21.41.027.827.827.8
vs Stronger (3)12.713.012.04.35.52.024.325.023.0
vs Similar (15)7.17.37.02.22.12.229.031.727.0
vs Weaker (32)10.513.08.00.40.50.229.022.036.0
% over line42%50%33%20%24%16%100%100%100%
% under line58%50%67%80%76%84%0%0%0%
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MuraMura

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (23)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (27)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.2
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.8
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Celje
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.3%
Under 9.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.4%
Under 3.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.8%
Under 21.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸ”Ē 6. Odd / Even

ðŸĨ… 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 8. Handicap

ðŸ”Ĩ 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls75.8%--------
Home win72.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Celje vs Mura · H/A from CEL
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/26AMura Vs CEL0-2
14/02/26HCEL Vs Mura5-1
26/10/25AMura Vs CEL2-1
10/08/25HCEL Vs Mura3-0
13/04/25HCEL Vs Mura2-1
16/02/25AMura Vs CEL0-0
19/10/24HCEL Vs Mura4-3
03/08/24AMura Vs CEL1-0

CeljeCelje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/05/26APrimorje Vs CEL0-4
16/05/26HCEL Vs Koper1-2
02/05/26HCEL Vs Bravo2-3
26/04/26HCEL Vs Aluminij5-0
19/04/26AMura Vs CEL0-2
15/04/26HCEL Vs Olimpija Ljubljana2-0
11/04/26ARadomlje Vs CEL1-3
04/04/26HCEL Vs Maribor1-0
22/03/26HCEL Vs Primorje5-1
19/03/26AAEK Athens FC Vs CEL0-2

MuraMura

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/05/26ARadomlje Vs MUR3-2
17/05/26HMUR Vs Maribor2-1
10/05/26APrimorje Vs MUR0-2
03/05/26HMUR Vs Koper0-1
19/04/26HMUR Vs Celje0-2
16/04/26AAluminij Vs MUR2-1
11/04/26HMUR Vs Bravo1-2
04/04/26HMUR Vs Olimpija Ljubljana0-0
21/03/26HMUR Vs Radomlje2-0
14/03/26AMaribor Vs MUR3-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Celje
Celje
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 8 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLW2.06
HomeWWWLL2.12
AwayWWWWW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %64%64%64%
AVG goals3.343.203.48
Over 1.5 %86%80%92%
Over 2.5 %68%64%72%
Over 3.5 %44%44%44%
Scored2.262.202.32
Conceded1.081.001.16
BTTS52%56%48%
Clean Sheet42%40%44%
Corners9.0810.178.00
Cards4.575.713.43
Mura
Mura
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWL0.82
HomeDLLLW1.28
AwayLLLWL0.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%32%8%
AVG goals2.602.362.84
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %48%44%52%
Over 3.5 %22%20%24%
Scored0.981.160.80
Conceded1.621.202.04
BTTS48%52%44%
Clean Sheet16%24%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1MariborMaribor59
40%
1.8
72+5
1.8
80%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5231.40.4
-
2CeljeCelje48
50%
2.0
74+3
2.8
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
7161.81.0
-
3BravoBravo58
40%
1.6
55+0
2.0
80%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
4NaftaNafta57
40%
1.4
108+2
3.6
100%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
5MuraMura57
40%
1.4
811-3
3.8
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
6KoperKoper56
20%
1.2
55+0
2.0
80%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3231.01.0
-
7AluminijAluminij45
25%
1.2
43+1
1.8
50%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.8
-
8Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje55
20%
1.0
57-2
2.4
100%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
9RadomljeRadomlje54
20%
0.8
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
10Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana54
20%
0.8
25-3
1.4
40%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6150.41.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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