Celje are tipped to win at home, with a 56% chance of victory, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 17% chance of Radomlje taking the win. The match is expected to see about 2.4 goals, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-0, which the model assigns a 13.2% probability. Celje, playing at home against a weaker opponent, average 1.62 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded. Radomlje, away against a stronger side, average 0.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 87.7%, Under 5.5 cards at 81.3%, Under 3.5 at 77.1% (hit), Over 21.5 fouls at 76.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 73.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 73.1%, and Over 1.5 at 71.1% (miss). Celje’s recent form shows a win-loss-draw-draw-win pattern and they just came off a 2-0 victory over Aluminij, while Radomlje are coming off a 0-0 draw with Olimpija Ljubljana. The predicted outcome remains a Celje win.
Results analysis
Celje’s win over Radomlje extended their recent run, with the 1-0 result confirming the model’s home-win pick and its 56% probability. The model’s favourite was indeed correct, and the match finished exactly as the most likely scoreline predicted. The Under 3.5 selection, at 77.1%, hit, while the Over 1.5, at 71.1%, missed. Celje, enjoying a strong home form against weaker opposition, scored once and conceded none, whereas Radomlje, playing away against stronger teams, managed only a single goal. The model’s overall predictions held up well in this tight Slovenian fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Celje win✓ Hit
56.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Radomlje win✗ Miss
16.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Celje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.90
1.67
0.73
2.00
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.73
1.13
1.71
1.00
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (15)
1.93
0.67
1.62
0.50
2.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radomlje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.33
1.00
1.31
1.07
1.36
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
2.00
0.86
1.86
0.60
2.20
vs Similar (18)
1.22
0.89
1.11
0.89
1.33
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.1%
Under 1.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.0%
Under 2.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.9%
Under 3.5
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.4%
No
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
13.2%
1-1
12.6%
2-0
11.8%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
6.4%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.1%
Celje goals ↓
Radomlje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
5.8%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
1
13%
13%
4.5%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.4%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
3
6.4%
5.1%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.6%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Celje goals (down), columns = Radomlje goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Celje is 1.28 points better than Radomlje in terms of average points per game (2.19 vs 0.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Celje is 1.17 goals better than Radomlje in terms of goals scored per game (2.08 vs 0.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Celje is 0.47 goals better than Radomlje in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Celje
For 5.0 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 10.3 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Radomlje
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Celje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (49)
9.9
9.4
10.4
2.8
2.5
3.2
24.1
24.9
23.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
9.9
8.6
11.1
3.3
3.2
3.5
22.9
23.7
22.3
vs Weaker (28)
9.9
10.1
9.8
2.5
2.0
2.9
25.1
26.0
24.4
% over line
49%
44%
53%
39%
38%
40%
76%
80%
74%
% under line
51%
56%
47%
61%
62%
60%
24%
20%
26%
This opponent (Radomlje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radomlje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (43)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
10.7
Aluminij
10.4
Celje
9.9
Koper
9.6
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.6
Maribor
9.2
NK Domzale
9.0
Bravo
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.2
NK Domzale
5.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.8
Maribor
4.7
Mura
4.4
Koper
4.1
Celje
4.0
Bravo
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
27.8
Aluminij
27.2
Bravo
26.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
26.6
Mura
26.0
Maribor
25.5
Koper
24.3
Celje
24.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.3%
Under 9.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
53.1%
Under 3.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
76.9%
Under 21.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Celje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
0.67
0.20
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.40
0.71
0.29
0.88
0.50
vs Weaker (15)
0.67
0.27
0.62
0.12
0.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radomlje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.50
0.88
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.17
0.43
1.14
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.56
0.56
0.67
0.67
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Celje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Celje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.57
1.00
0.53
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.73
1.00
0.71
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
1.27
0.40
1.00
0.38
1.57
0.43
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radomlje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.50
0.44
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.83
0.43
0.71
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.33
0.56
0.22
0.67
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Celje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celje · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Nikita Iosifov17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Danijel Šturm12%
Ivica Vidović12%
Darko Hrka10%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitaliy Lisakovich50%
Darko Hrka40%
Matija Boben33%
Ivan Ćalušić33%
Franko Kovačević25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Damjan Vuklišević17%
Juanjo Nieto17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Papa Daniel12%
Łukasz Bejger9%
Žan-Luk Leban9%
Armandas Kučys0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
Milot Avdyli0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vitaliy Lisakovich25%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Milot Avdyli17%
Darko Hrka10%
Juanjo Nieto8%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Franko Kovačević0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Ivica Vidović12%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Darko Hrka0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
Celje's squad is €8m more valuable than Radomlje's (€14m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Celje's attack is €4m more valuable than Radomlje's (€7m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Celje and Radomlje have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
Celje's defence is €4m more valuable than Radomlje's (€6m vs €2m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
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Maribor
Olimpija Ljubljana
Bravo
Koper
NK Domzale
Mura
Rogaška
Aluminij
Nafta