Celta Vigo are tipped to win as the model favours a home victory, with a 58% chance of triumph, 23% for a draw and 19% for a Malaga win. The expected total of 3.1 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.7% probability. Celta’s home form shows they have scored 2.0 and conceded 1.0 goals against stronger opposition, while Malaga’s away record against stronger teams is 0.0 scored and 3.0 conceded. The match is likely to see a tight contest, with the model’s selections reflecting a cautious approach: Under 7.5 goals at 98.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0% with a 5% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.4% with a 1% edge, Under 6.5 at 95.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.1% with a 3% edge, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.1% with a 2% edge, and Home +2 handicap at 92.5% with a 2% edge. The model’s selection points to a cautious, low-risk match with Celta Vigo likely to edge out a win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Celta Vigo win
57.7%
Avg Implied 53.8% · @ 1.75
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.79
Unibet
1.78
Dafabet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
Draw
23.1%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.54
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.74
Pinnacle
3.70
Marathonbet
3.68
Betano
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Malaga win
19.2%
Avg Implied 19.7% · @ 4.76
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
5.10
1xBet
5.03
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Dafabet
4.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Celta Vigo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.40
1.36
1.71
1.06
1.12
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
0.86
1.33
1.33
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
1.22
1.57
1.36
1.82
1.08
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malaga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.23
1.79
1.07
1.81
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (28)
1.93
1.11
1.79
1.07
2.07
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.0%
@ 1.34+12.9%
Under 1.5
17.0%
@ 3.15-12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.27
Unibet
3.25
Betano
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.7%
@ 2.06+14.8%
Under 2.5
39.3%
@ 1.75-14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.14
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
Under
1xBet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.4%
@ 3.61+12.6%
Under 3.5
61.6%
@ 1.26-12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Betano
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Under
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
BetVictor
1.27
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Both teams to score
Yes
59.2%
@ 1.93+11.0%
No
40.8%
@ 1.80-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
No
William Hil
1.85
Unibet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%@ 6.38+3.8%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.75+4.2%
2-0
8.9%@ 7.28+2.9%
1-0
7.8%@ 5.84+0.3%
3-1
6.7%@ 13.74+3.5%
3-0
6.0%@ 12.62+2.5%
2-2
5.5%@ 15.50+2.6%
1-2
5.4%@ 14.16+2.3%
Celta Vigo goals ↓
Malaga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
3.8%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
1
7.8%
11%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
2
8.9%
9.9%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
3
6.0%
6.7%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
4
3.1%
3.4%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Celta Vigo goals (down), columns = Malaga goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Celta Vigo is 0.32 points better than Malaga in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.10).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Celta Vigo is 0.32 goals better than Malaga in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Celta Vigo is 0.42 goals better than Malaga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.69).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Celta Vigo
For 3.1 · Against 5.3 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 14.8 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Malaga
For 4.6 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celta Vigo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
7.9
8.0
4.4
4.5
4.2
25.1
24.1
25.9
vs Stronger (9)
7.8
7.8
7.8
5.8
6.2
5.4
23.3
21.0
25.2
vs Similar (38)
7.8
7.9
7.6
4.0
4.2
3.9
25.0
24.8
25.3
vs Weaker (3)
12.0
-
12.0
4.7
-
4.7
34.0
-
34.0
% over line
27%
27%
27%
58%
59%
57%
69%
68%
69%
% under line
73%
73%
73%
42%
41%
43%
31%
32%
31%
This opponent (Malaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malaga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.0
9.9
5.1
5.1
5.0
24.9
25.8
24.0
vs Stronger (2)
11.0
-
11.0
3.5
-
3.5
21.5
-
21.5
vs Similar (47)
8.9
8.0
9.8
5.2
5.1
5.3
25.0
25.8
24.3
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
47%
41%
52%
66%
65%
67%
70%
77%
64%
% under line
53%
59%
48%
34%
35%
33%
30%
23%
36%
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Osasuna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.7
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Getafe
5.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.6
Sevilla
5.2
Malaga
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Osasuna
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.4
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.6
Athletic Club
25.1
Osasuna
25.0
Celta Vigo
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.7
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
23.6
Deportivo La Coruna
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.8%
@ 2.23+5.7%
Under 9.5
53.2%
@ 1.56-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.23
Under
Unibet
1.56
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
64.8%
Under 3.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.2%
Under 21.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Celta Vigo or Draw
80.8%
Avg Implied 80.1% · @ 1.18
Edge
+0.7%
58%
23%
19%
covers Celta Vigo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.21
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Celta Vigo or Malaga
76.9%
Avg Implied 73.8% · @ 1.28
Edge
+3.1%
58%
23%
19%
covers Celta Vigo + Malaga
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or Malaga
42.3%
Avg Implied 46.1% · @ 2.04
Edge
-3.8%
58%
23%
19%
covers Draw + Malaga
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Bet365
2.05
10Bet
2.05
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5
Over
86.9%
@ 1.17+7.8%
Under
13.1%
@ 4.43-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.80
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
1xBet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5
Over
60.2%
@ 1.91+11.4%
Under
39.8%
@ 1.82-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
10Bet
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Betano
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Betano
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5
Over
33.2%
@ 3.88+9.1%
Under
66.8%
@ 1.23-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.86
1xBet
3.84
Under
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Celta Vigo over/under 3.5
Over
14.8%
@ 8.64+4.0%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.05-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.40
Marathonbet
8.40
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Malaga over/under 0.5
Over
67.0%
@ 1.60+9.1%
Under
33.0%
@ 2.21-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.30
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Bet365
2.20
BetVictor
2.20
Malaga over/under 1.5
Over
30.4%
@ 4.00+7.1%
Under
69.6%
@ 1.22-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
Pinnacle
4.07
10Bet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Under
1xBet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Malaga over/under 2.5
Over
10.1%
@ 11.75+2.1%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.03-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
1xBet
11.50
Marathonbet
11.50
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Malaga over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
@ 27.50-0.9%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Celta Vigo, so a minus line means Celta Vigo give that many goals of a start and Malaga receive them. At -1, Celta Vigo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Celta Vigo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Celta Vigo)
Celta Vigo -2
17.6%
@ 6.44+3.8%
Draw -2
17.8%
@ 4.91-0.4%
Malaga +2
64.5%
@ 1.32-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.10
Marathonbet
5.85
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Away
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Handicap -1 (Celta Vigo)
Celta Vigo -1
35.5%
@ 3.07+6.2%
Draw -1
22.2%
@ 3.40-4.2%
Malaga +1
42.3%
@ 2.03-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.10
Marathonbet
3.02
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Unibet
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Away
Marathonbet
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Handicap +1 (Celta Vigo)
Celta Vigo +1
80.8%
@ 1.17+5.2%
Draw +1
11.7%
@ 5.57-4.2%
Malaga -1
7.5%
@ 10.36-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.18
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Draw
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.50
Marathonbet
3.85
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
5.80
Handicap +2 (Celta Vigo)
Celta Vigo +2
92.5%
@ 1.03+1.9%
Draw +2
5.3%
@ 14.00-1.4%
Malaga -2
2.2%
@ 35.00-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Away
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Celta Vigo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.71
0.71
0.31
0.50
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.29
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.25
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.70
0.64
0.82
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malaga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.79
0.57
0.75
0.44
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
-
-
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (28)
0.82
0.43
0.79
0.57
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.8%
@ 1.42+6.1%
Under 0.5
28.2%
@ 2.72-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.86
William Hil
2.80
Unibet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.70
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.5%
@ 2.96+2.0%
Under 1.5
66.5%
@ 1.36-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.15
Pinnacle
3.04
Marathonbet
3.02
1xBet
3.02
Betfair
3.00
Under
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Betano
1.37
BetVictor
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.7%
@ 7.91+9.8%
Under 2.5
78.3%
@ 1.06-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
BetVictor
9.00
Betfair
8.00
William Hil
8.00
1xBet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.0%
@ 1.80+5.4%
Under
43.0%
@ 1.92-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Under
Pinnacle
1.98
10Bet
1.93
Unibet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
22.5%
@ 5.14+4.5%
Under
77.5%
@ 1.13-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.9%
@ 10.75-2.8%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.03+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Malaga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
29.9%
@ 2.81-3.2%
Under
70.1%
@ 1.39+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.95
Betano
2.90
Marathonbet
2.80
10Bet
2.80
1xBet
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Malaga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.9%
@ 10.17-2.3%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.03+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Malaga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Celta Vigo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.64
1.00
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.57
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.25
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.87
0.73
1.00
0.67
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malaga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.73
1.00
0.50
1.06
0.94
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
-
-
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (28)
1.11
0.68
1.00
0.50
1.21
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.7%
@ 1.27+9.3%
Under 0.5
17.3%
@ 3.53-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Under
Betano
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.5%
@ 2.24+11.8%
Under 1.5
46.5%
@ 1.61-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.30
Marathonbet
2.28
1xBet
2.28
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
Under
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Betano
1.65
William Hil
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.5%
@ 5.00+3.7%
Under 2.5
77.5%
@ 1.16-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
William Hil
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
10Bet
4.80
Under
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.7%
@ 1.56+5.9%
Under
34.3%
@ 2.31-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Under
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.28
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
30.3%
@ 3.62+4.7%
Under
69.7%
@ 1.25-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Betano
3.50
Under
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
13.3%
@ 8.00+1.6%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.06-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Malaga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.3%
@ 2.34+2.5%
Under
57.7%
@ 1.55-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.32
1xBet
2.32
Under
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Malaga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.2%
@ 7.93-2.4%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.04+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.40
Marathonbet
8.20
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Malaga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
@ 13.00-5.2%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.9%
Under 6.5
95.9%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-0.7%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.1%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+2.3%
Home +2 handicap
92.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+1.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+2.4%
Under 5.5
90.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-3.2%
Away under 2.5 goals
89.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-2.1%
Home over 0.5 goals
86.9%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
+7.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
86.7%
1.06
Betano
1.06
-
-
-
-
-1.6%
Home under 3.5 goals
85.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-4.0%
Over 1.5
83.0%
1.34
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
+12.9%
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.7%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
+9.3%
Over 2.5 cards
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
80.8%
1.18
1xBet
1.21
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
+0.7%
Home +1 handicap
80.8%
1.17
Marathonbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.18
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+5.2%
Under 4.5
79.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
BetVictor
1.05
-7.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
78.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-9.8%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.5%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.14
-3.7%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
77.5%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
-
-4.5%
Home or Away
76.9%
1.28
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+3.1%
Under 11.5 corners
76.0%
1.20
Unibet
1.20
-
-
-
-
-0.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.8%
1.42
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
+6.1%
Under 5.5 cards
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.1%
1.39
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Betano
1.38
+3.2%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celta Vigo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Iago Aspas25%
Marcos Alonso0%
I. Radu0%
Javi Galán0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
I. Moriba0%
Javi Rueda0%
W. Swedberg0%
Pablo Durán0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Alonso33%
I. Radu25%
Sergio Carreira25%
Javi Rueda25%
Yoel Lago25%
Iago Aspas0%
Javi Galán0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
I. Moriba0%
W. Swedberg0%
Pablo Durán0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel Román25%
Marcos Alonso0%
I. Radu0%
Iago Aspas0%
Javi Galán0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
I. Moriba0%
Javi Rueda0%
W. Swedberg0%
Pablo Durán0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marcos Alonso0%
I. Radu0%
Iago Aspas0%
Javi Galán0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
I. Moriba0%
Javi Rueda0%
W. Swedberg0%
Pablo Durán0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Malaga
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ramón Enríquez67%
Carlos Puga33%
Juan Cruz33%
David Larrubia33%
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Rafa Rodriguez0%
Chupete0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafa Rodriguez33%
Chupete33%
Joaquín Muñoz0%
Einar Galilea0%
Alfonso Herrero0%
Ramón Enríquez0%
Carlos Dotor0%
Carlos Puga0%
Juan Cruz0%
David Larrubia0%
Ángel Recio0%
Izan Merino0%
Rafa Garrido0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Celta Vigo's squad is €122m more valuable than Malaga's (€163m vs €41m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Celta Vigo's attack is €31m more valuable than Malaga's (€57m vs €26m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Celta Vigo's midfield is €29m more valuable than Malaga's (€35m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Celta Vigo's defence is €62m more valuable than Malaga's (€71m vs €9m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche