This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.10
1.56
0.94
1.36
1.29
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.20
1.00
1.33
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.00
1.00
0.83
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (16)
1.81
1.12
2.29
0.86
1.44
1.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.8%
@ 2.18+6.2%
Under 2.5
50.2%
@ 1.68-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
8.7%
0-0
8.2%
2-1
6.5%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
5.1%
Celta Vigo goals ↓
Real Sociedad goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
9.8%
8.7%
4.6%
1.8%
1
6.3%
13%
9.4%
5.0%
2.0%
2
4.1%
6.5%
5.1%
2.7%
1.1%
3
1.5%
2.3%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Celta Vigo goals (down), columns = Real Sociedad goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Atletico Madrid
2.26
Real Madrid
2.21
Barcelona
2.08
Sevilla
2.03
Real Sociedad
1.63
Real Betis
1.61
Villarreal
1.53
Celta Vigo
1.39
Athletic Club
1.21
Granada CF
1.21
Cadiz
1.16
Osasuna
1.16
Valencia
1.13
Levante
1.08
Getafe
1.00
Alaves
1.00
Elche
0.95
Huesca
0.89
Valladolid
0.82
Eibar
0.79
Celta Vigo is 0.24 points worse than Real Sociedad in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.63).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.24
Atletico Madrid
1.76
Real Madrid
1.76
Villarreal
1.58
Real Sociedad
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.45
Sevilla
1.39
Real Betis
1.32
Valencia
1.32
Granada CF
1.24
Athletic Club
1.21
Levante
1.21
Osasuna
0.97
Cadiz
0.95
Alaves
0.95
Valladolid
0.89
Huesca
0.89
Elche
0.89
Eibar
0.76
Getafe
0.74
Celta Vigo is 0.11 goals worse than Real Sociedad in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atletico Madrid
0.66
Real Madrid
0.74
Sevilla
0.87
Real Sociedad
1.00
Barcelona
1.00
Athletic Club
1.11
Getafe
1.13
Villarreal
1.16
Osasuna
1.26
Real Betis
1.32
Eibar
1.37
Huesca
1.39
Valencia
1.39
Elche
1.45
Valladolid
1.50
Celta Vigo
1.50
Alaves
1.50
Levante
1.50
Cadiz
1.53
Granada CF
1.71
Celta Vigo is 0.50 goals worse than Real Sociedad in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Celta Vigo
For 4.4 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.9 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.3 · Against 14.9 · Total 29.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Sociedad
For 5.1 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 12.9 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celta Vigo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.8
9.6
6.0
5.9
6.2
28.1
28.2
28.1
vs Stronger (9)
10.6
10.5
10.7
6.9
7.5
5.7
28.1
29.2
26.0
vs Similar (38)
9.6
9.6
9.5
5.9
5.6
6.2
28.1
28.0
28.1
vs Weaker (3)
8.7
9.0
8.5
4.7
1.0
6.5
29.0
25.0
31.0
% over line
64%
67%
62%
88%
83%
92%
88%
96%
81%
% under line
36%
33%
38%
12%
17%
8%
12%
4%
19%
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.7
8.5
4.9
4.8
5.0
27.3
27.3
27.4
vs Stronger (8)
8.4
9.4
6.7
3.9
3.8
4.0
25.2
25.2
25.3
vs Similar (15)
8.9
9.9
7.7
5.1
5.2
5.0
27.5
29.1
25.7
vs Weaker (27)
9.5
9.7
9.3
5.0
4.9
5.1
27.9
26.9
28.7
% over line
44%
54%
33%
72%
73%
71%
88%
88%
88%
% under line
56%
46%
67%
28%
27%
29%
12%
12%
12%
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Levante
10.5
Real Betis
10.1
Eibar
9.9
Celta Vigo
9.7
Sevilla
9.6
Atletico Madrid
9.6
Osasuna
9.5
Real Madrid
9.4
Villarreal
9.4
Valencia
9.3
Elche
9.3
Real Sociedad
9.1
Cadiz
8.9
Valladolid
8.9
Barcelona
8.8
Huesca
8.8
Athletic Club
8.7
Granada CF
8.6
Alaves
8.6
Getafe
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Getafe
6.9
Celta Vigo
6.0
Real Betis
6.0
Granada CF
5.9
Elche
5.9
Cadiz
5.6
Sevilla
5.6
Atletico Madrid
5.3
Alaves
5.2
Osasuna
5.2
Athletic Club
5.1
Barcelona
5.0
Huesca
5.0
Real Sociedad
4.9
Valencia
4.8
Valladolid
4.8
Levante
4.7
Real Madrid
4.5
Eibar
4.4
Villarreal
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
32.4
Elche
31.7
Huesca
30.9
Cadiz
30.6
Granada CF
30.2
Real Betis
28.3
Valladolid
28.3
Celta Vigo
28.1
Alaves
28.0
Sevilla
27.8
Real Sociedad
27.3
Athletic Club
27.1
Osasuna
26.9
Atletico Madrid
26.6
Real Madrid
25.6
Levante
25.6
Valencia
25.5
Eibar
25.5
Barcelona
25.4
Villarreal
24.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
42.1%
Under 9.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
76.2%
Under 3.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
88.4%
Under 21.5
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Celta Vigo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.64
0.57
0.31
0.44
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.48
1.00
0.44
0.29
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.38
0.38
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.40
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.33
0.50
0.17
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
0.50
0.50
0.29
0.57
0.67
0.44
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Celta Vigo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.79
0.71
0.38
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.20
0.75
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.78
0.89
0.67
0.36
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.67
1.19
0.56
0.86
0.79
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.67
0.50
0.67
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
0.62
2.00
0.29
0.78
0.89
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Sociedad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celta Vigo · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Iago Aspas33%
Ionuț Radu0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
Ilaix Moriba0%
Javier Rueda0%
Williot Swedberg0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ionuț Radu33%
Sergio Carreira33%
Javier Rueda33%
Iago Aspas0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Ilaix Moriba0%
Williot Swedberg0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel Román33%
Ionuț Radu0%
Iago Aspas0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
Ilaix Moriba0%
Javier Rueda0%
Williot Swedberg0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ionuț Radu0%
Iago Aspas0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
Ilaix Moriba0%
Javier Rueda0%
Williot Swedberg0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Real Sociedad · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luka Sučić33%
Ander Barrenetxea33%
Orri Óskarsson33%
Sergio Gómez0%
Carlos Soler0%
Yangel Herrera0%
Takefusa Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Igor Zubeldia0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Igor Zubeldia67%
Jon Aramburu67%
Sergio Gómez33%
Yangel Herrera33%
Beñat Turrientes33%
Carlos Soler0%
Luka Sučić0%
Takefusa Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Ander Barrenetxea0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Orri Óskarsson0%
Jon Martin0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mikel Oyarzabal33%
Sergio Gómez0%
Carlos Soler0%
Yangel Herrera0%
Luka Sučić0%
Takefusa Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Igor Zubeldia0%
Ander Barrenetxea0%
Orri Óskarsson0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Orri Óskarsson33%
Sergio Gómez0%
Carlos Soler0%
Yangel Herrera0%
Luka Sučić0%
Takefusa Kubo0%
Álex Remiro0%
Igor Zubeldia0%
Ander Barrenetxea0%
Mikel Oyarzabal0%
Beñat Turrientes0%
Jon Aramburu0%
Jon Martin0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
ELC (27)
€79m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
GC (18)
€17m
EIB (24)
€15m
HUE (21)
€5m
Celta Vigo's squad is €84m less valuable than Real Sociedad's (€163m vs €247m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
CAD (12)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
HUE (9)
€2m
Celta Vigo's attack is €53m less valuable than Real Sociedad's (€57m vs €110m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
VAL (6)
€6m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
HUE (4)
€1m
Celta Vigo's midfield is €23m less valuable than Real Sociedad's (€35m vs €58m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
VAL (12)
€39m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
GET (13)
€26m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
CAD (12)
€12m
VAL (12)
€10m
GC (10)
€9m
EIB (10)
€5m
HUE (8)
€2m
Celta Vigo's defence is €8m less valuable than Real Sociedad's (€71m vs €79m).
Spain: La Liga 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
Barcelona
Sevilla
Real Betis
Villarreal
Athletic Club
Granada CF
Osasuna
Cadiz
Valencia
Levante
Getafe
Alaves
Elche
Huesca
Valladolid
Eibar