PythiaFootballBETA
Celta Vigo, fresh off a win against Sevilla, welcomes the same opponent to their home turf. The recent-form storyline suggests a positive momentum for the home side. However, the model's analysis paints a more balanced picture, with Celta Vigo's home win probability standing at 49%. The model also predicts a 28% chance of an away win, while a draw is seen as a 23% possibility.
The expected total goals for this match is 3.5, indicating a high-scoring encounter. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, but the model's top pick is a home win. At home, Celta Vigo has averaged 2.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded against similar opponents. Sevilla, on the other hand, has averaged 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 conceded away from home against similar opponents.
The model's selection is a home win, with a 49% probability. Other suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals, with a 87.6% chance of success, and Over 21.5 fouls, with a 71.3% chance of hitting. Home win is the favourite with a 49% chance, followed by draw at 23% and away win at 28%.
The win extends Celta Vigo's run of form, having come off a win against Sevilla, and now a second consecutive victory. This result comes as a surprise, given the expected total goals of 3.5, which was well below the actual score. The final score was 1-0, a one-goal margin that was not predicted by the model's most likely scores, which included 1-1, 2-1, and 2-2.
The model's selection, Celta Vigo to win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 49%. In contrast, Sevilla's win was given a 28% chance. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals missed, with a probability of 87.6%, while the selection of Over 21.5 fouls hit, with a probability of 71.3%.
Celta Vigo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.30 | 1.86 | 1.50 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 1.20 | 0.90 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.60 | 1.50 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Sevilla| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.63 | 1.25 | 1.19 | 1.07 | 2.14 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.33 | 2.17 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 3.33 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.11 | 1.37 | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.12 | 1.75 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
| Sevilla goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 6.0% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 4.0% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
Celta VigoSevillaCelta Vigo| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.0 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 23.9 | 22.9 | 24.8 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 7.9 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 22.3 | 20.0 | 24.2 |
| vs Similar (32) | 8.1 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 24.8 | 24.3 | 25.2 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 26% | 29% | 23% | 60% | 62% | 58% | 62% | 58% | 65% |
| % under line | 74% | 71% | 77% | 40% | 38% | 42% | 38% | 42% | 35% |
Sevilla| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 27.1 | 28.4 | 25.8 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 10.8 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 23.8 | 23.6 | 24.0 |
| vs Similar (31) | 9.2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 27.0 | 28.6 | 25.8 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 8.3 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 30.0 | 31.6 | 27.2 |
| % over line | 46% | 44% | 48% | 68% | 80% | 56% | 82% | 84% | 80% |
| % under line | 54% | 56% | 52% | 32% | 20% | 44% | 18% | 16% | 20% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 87.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 71.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 10/05/25 | H | 3-2 | |
| 14/12/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/03/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 04/11/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 07/04/23 | A | 2-2 | |
| 30/12/22 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/01/22 | A | 2-2 |
Celta Vigo| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 16/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 09/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 2-3 |
Sevilla| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 23/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 5-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | 94 | 82% | 2.5 | 95 | 36 | +59 | 3.4 | 89% | 74% | 42% | 11.3 | 68% | 4.5 | 51% | 21.4 | 50% | 1301 | 589 | 298 | 413 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 69% |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 38 | 86 | 71% | 2.3 | 77 | 35 | +42 | 2.9 | 87% | 55% | 26% | 9.9 | 55% | 4.8 | 54% | 24.4 | 68% | 1256 | 712 | 250 | 294 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 59% |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 38 | 72 | 58% | 1.9 | 72 | 46 | +26 | 3.1 | 92% | 58% | 37% | 9.1 | 45% | 4.3 | 58% | 24.1 | 61% | 360 | 168 | 55 | 137 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 45% |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 38 | 69 | 55% | 1.8 | 62 | 44 | +18 | 2.8 | 74% | 50% | 26% | 10.8 | 61% | 4.4 | 59% | 20.9 | 39% | 540 | 226 | 123 | 190 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 38 | 60 | 39% | 1.6 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 2.8 | 89% | 53% | 26% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.6 | 65% | 23.7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 6 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 54 | 37% | 1.4 | 53 | 48 | +5 | 2.7 | 79% | 45% | 24% | 8.4 | 29% | 4.4 | 58% | 24.1 | 63% | 200 | 81 | 39 | 80 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 7 |  Getafe | 38 | 51 | 39% | 1.3 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 1.8 | 58% | 26% | 5% | 8.9 | 37% | 5.6 | 79% | 29.8 | 100% | 94 | 46 | 25 | 23 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 40% |
| 8 |  Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 50 | 32% | 1.3 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 2.2 | 71% | 37% | 16% | 10.9 | 66% | 5.3 | 74% | 24.5 | 76% | 94 | 29 | 11 | 54 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 9 |  Valencia | 38 | 49 | 34% | 1.3 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 2.7 | 79% | 42% | 24% | 9.9 | 45% | 4.6 | 68% | 24.2 | 66% | 147 | 54 | 46 | 47 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 38 | 46 | 29% | 1.2 | 59 | 61 | -2 | 3.2 | 82% | 58% | 42% | 10.1 | 53% | 5.0 | 63% | 26.6 | 76% | 270 | 132 | 54 | 83 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 11 |  Espanyol | 38 | 46 | 32% | 1.2 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 2.6 | 76% | 50% | 24% | 9.5 | 45% | 5.2 | 70% | 26.5 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 42% |
| 12 |  Athletic Club | 38 | 45 | 34% | 1.2 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 2.7 | 74% | 47% | 21% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.6 | 67% | 24.3 | 66% | 236 | 103 | 57 | 76 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 13 |  Elche | 38 | 43 | 26% | 1.1 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 2.8 | 79% | 58% | 39% | 8.3 | 34% | 4.6 | 71% | 28.3 | 92% | 127 | 34 | 37 | 56 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 58% |
| 14 |  Alaves | 38 | 43 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 2.6 | 71% | 50% | 24% | 10.1 | 53% | 4.9 | 74% | 28.4 | 95% | 78 | 26 | 22 | 29 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 15 | Sevilla | 38 | 43 | 32% | 1.1 | 46 | 60 | -14 | 2.8 | 79% | 55% | 26% | 9.3 | 50% | 5.2 | 68% | 27.6 | 82% | 163 | 65 | 28 | 70 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 2.5 | 68% | 50% | 26% | 8.6 | 32% | 5.1 | 79% | 25.1 | 82% | 99 | 51 | 13 | 35 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 17 |  Mallorca | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 47 | 57 | -10 | 2.7 | 84% | 63% | 21% | 10.0 | 58% | 4.7 | 62% | 24.6 | 74% | 77 | 31 | 23 | 23 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 18 |  Levante | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 2.8 | 87% | 45% | 29% | 10.2 | 47% | 4.9 | 71% | 25.3 | 76% | 111 | 68 | 15 | 27 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 19 |  Girona | 38 | 41 | 24% | 1.1 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 2.5 | 79% | 45% | 16% | 9.4 | 39% | 4.4 | 50% | 25.0 | 71% | 199 | 83 | 33 | 84 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 38 | 29 | 16% | 0.8 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 2.3 | 66% | 39% | 16% | 9.5 | 47% | 4.2 | 58% | 24.1 | 63% | 61 | 26 | 11 | 23 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 46% |