This opponent (Villarreal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Villarreal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.33
1.38
1.38
1.14
1.29
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.80
1.67
1.67
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
1.20
1.10
1.29
1.14
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.40
1.33
1.33
1.50
1.44
1.22
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.3%
Under 1.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.3%
Under 2.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.0%
Under 3.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.9%
No
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.6%
0-1
9.5%
1-0
8.5%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
5.8%
Celta Vigo goals ↓
Villarreal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
9.5%
7.1%
3.1%
1.0%
1
8.5%
14%
8.4%
3.6%
1.2%
2
5.8%
7.6%
5.0%
2.2%
0.7%
3
2.3%
3.0%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Celta Vigo goals (down), columns = Villarreal goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.29
Atletico Madrid
2.00
Real Madrid
1.79
Valencia
1.61
Getafe
1.55
Sevilla
1.55
Espanyol
1.39
Athletic Club
1.39
Real Sociedad
1.32
Alaves
1.32
Real Betis
1.32
Eibar
1.24
Leganes
1.18
Villarreal
1.16
Levante
1.16
Celta Vigo
1.08
Valladolid
1.08
Girona
0.97
Huesca
0.87
Rayo Vallecano
0.84
Celta Vigo is 0.08 points worse than Villarreal in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.37
Real Madrid
1.66
Sevilla
1.63
Levante
1.55
Atletico Madrid
1.45
Celta Vigo
1.39
Valencia
1.34
Villarreal
1.29
Espanyol
1.26
Getafe
1.26
Eibar
1.21
Real Sociedad
1.18
Real Betis
1.16
Huesca
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Athletic Club
1.08
Alaves
1.03
Girona
0.97
Leganes
0.97
Valladolid
0.84
Celta Vigo is 0.11 goals better than Villarreal in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atletico Madrid
0.76
Getafe
0.92
Valencia
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Leganes
1.13
Athletic Club
1.18
Real Sociedad
1.21
Real Madrid
1.21
Sevilla
1.24
Espanyol
1.32
Eibar
1.32
Alaves
1.32
Valladolid
1.34
Real Betis
1.37
Villarreal
1.37
Girona
1.39
Celta Vigo
1.63
Huesca
1.71
Levante
1.74
Rayo Vallecano
1.84
Celta Vigo is 0.26 goals worse than Villarreal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Celta Vigo
For 3.6 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 14.4 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Villarreal
For 4.5 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 11.6 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celta Vigo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.4
8.8
4.8
5.0
4.5
25.7
26.0
25.4
vs Stronger (8)
9.1
9.0
9.2
3.9
6.2
1.5
23.8
24.8
22.8
vs Similar (37)
9.8
10.9
8.8
5.1
5.0
5.2
25.8
25.9
25.6
vs Weaker (5)
9.2
9.8
7.0
3.4
3.8
2.0
28.4
28.0
30.0
% over line
56%
64%
48%
74%
76%
72%
76%
72%
80%
% under line
44%
36%
52%
26%
24%
28%
24%
28%
20%
This opponent (Villarreal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Villarreal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.9
10.9
5.6
5.8
5.3
26.2
27.4
24.9
vs Stronger (8)
10.9
10.8
11.0
4.9
6.0
3.8
23.9
25.5
22.2
vs Similar (18)
9.9
9.5
10.8
5.7
5.2
6.5
26.1
26.2
25.7
vs Weaker (24)
10.5
10.1
10.8
5.8
6.3
5.3
27.2
29.3
25.4
% over line
64%
56%
74%
76%
85%
65%
82%
96%
65%
% under line
36%
44%
26%
24%
15%
35%
18%
4%
35%
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sevilla
10.7
Villarreal
10.4
Huesca
10.3
Barcelona
10.1
Valladolid
10.1
Levante
10.1
Real Madrid
10.0
Eibar
9.8
Atletico Madrid
9.8
Valencia
9.8
Real Sociedad
9.7
Real Betis
9.7
Rayo Vallecano
9.6
Celta Vigo
9.6
Alaves
9.4
Espanyol
9.2
Girona
9.1
Getafe
8.6
Athletic Club
8.6
Leganes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Getafe
6.4
Levante
6.2
Huesca
5.9
Valencia
5.8
Valladolid
5.8
Athletic Club
5.7
Girona
5.6
Sevilla
5.6
Villarreal
5.6
Atletico Madrid
5.6
Leganes
5.5
Real Betis
5.4
Espanyol
5.4
Alaves
5.2
Rayo Vallecano
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.8
Barcelona
4.7
Real Sociedad
4.7
Real Madrid
4.7
Eibar
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
30.5
Girona
29.1
Alaves
28.7
Espanyol
28.7
Valladolid
28.6
Athletic Club
28.1
Huesca
28.0
Rayo Vallecano
27.8
Valencia
27.4
Sevilla
27.0
Levante
26.7
Real Sociedad
26.6
Atletico Madrid
26.5
Real Betis
26.3
Villarreal
26.2
Real Madrid
26.0
Leganes
25.9
Celta Vigo
25.7
Barcelona
25.2
Eibar
25.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.0%
Under 9.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
76.8%
Under 3.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
81.7%
Under 21.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Celta Vigo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.67
0.47
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.20
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.68
0.64
0.55
0.73
0.82
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Villarreal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Villarreal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.31
0.50
0.43
0.43
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.20
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.40
0.43
0.43
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (15)
0.47
0.27
0.17
0.17
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Celta Vigo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.13
0.87
0.93
0.60
1.33
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.60
2.00
1.50
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (22)
0.68
1.14
0.55
1.00
0.82
1.27
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Villarreal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Villarreal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
1.06
0.88
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
1.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.70
0.86
0.71
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
1.07
1.17
1.33
0.78
0.89
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Villarreal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celta Vigo · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Iago Aspas33%
Ionuț Radu0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
Ilaix Moriba0%
Javier Rueda0%
Williot Swedberg0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ionuț Radu33%
Sergio Carreira33%
Javier Rueda33%
Iago Aspas0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Ilaix Moriba0%
Williot Swedberg0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel Román33%
Ionuț Radu0%
Iago Aspas0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
Ilaix Moriba0%
Javier Rueda0%
Williot Swedberg0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ionuț Radu0%
Iago Aspas0%
Ferrán Jutglà0%
Sergio Carreira0%
Ilaix Moriba0%
Javier Rueda0%
Williot Swedberg0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Miguel Román0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Villarreal · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gerard Moreno33%
Nicolas Pépé33%
Pape Gueye33%
Georges Mikautadze33%
Juan Foyth0%
Ayoze Pérez0%
Santi Comesaña0%
Tajon Buchanan0%
Alberto Moleiro0%
Carlos Romero0%
Luiz Júnior0%
Ilias Akhomach0%
Santiago Mouriño0%
Renato Veiga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Juan Foyth67%
Santiago Mouriño67%
Nicolas Pépé33%
Pape Gueye33%
Carlos Romero33%
Renato Veiga33%
Gerard Moreno0%
Ayoze Pérez0%
Santi Comesaña0%
Tajon Buchanan0%
Georges Mikautadze0%
Alberto Moleiro0%
Luiz Júnior0%
Ilias Akhomach0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Georges Mikautadze33%
Alberto Moleiro33%
Juan Foyth0%
Gerard Moreno0%
Nicolas Pépé0%
Ayoze Pérez0%
Pape Gueye0%
Santi Comesaña0%
Tajon Buchanan0%
Carlos Romero0%
Luiz Júnior0%
Ilias Akhomach0%
Santiago Mouriño0%
Renato Veiga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georges Mikautadze67%
Juan Foyth33%
Gerard Moreno33%
Nicolas Pépé0%
Ayoze Pérez0%
Pape Gueye0%
Santi Comesaña0%
Tajon Buchanan0%
Alberto Moleiro0%
Carlos Romero0%
Luiz Júnior0%
Ilias Akhomach0%
Santiago Mouriño0%
Renato Veiga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GIR (28)
€114m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RV (23)
€76m
ALA (25)
€68m
LEG (26)
€30m
VAL (29)
€26m
EIB (24)
€15m
HUE (21)
€5m
Celta Vigo's squad is €162m less valuable than Villarreal's (€163m vs €325m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
GIR (12)
€64m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
RV (10)
€30m
ALA (8)
€24m
LEG (11)
€14m
VAL (11)
€10m
EIB (8)
€7m
HUE (9)
€2m
Celta Vigo's attack is €68m less valuable than Villarreal's (€57m vs €124m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GIR (7)
€28m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
RV (4)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
EIB (6)
€3m
HUE (4)
€1m
Celta Vigo's midfield is €17m less valuable than Villarreal's (€35m vs €52m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
GET (13)
€26m
GIR (9)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
VAL (12)
€10m
LEG (10)
€8m
EIB (10)
€5m
HUE (8)
€2m
Celta Vigo's defence is €78m less valuable than Villarreal's (€71m vs €148m).
Spain: La Liga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
Valencia
Sevilla
Getafe
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
Real Betis
Alaves
Eibar
Leganes
Levante
Valladolid
Girona
Huesca
Rayo Vallecano