PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic are the clear favourites to win against Dundee, with a predicted 84% chance of taking all three points. This is largely due to their impressive home form, where they have averaged 2.31 goals scored and just 1.31 conceded against weaker opponents. In contrast, Dundee's away form is concerning, with an average of just 0.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded against stronger opponents.
The most likely match result is a Celtic home win, with a predicted score of 2-0, although the expected total number of goals is 3.5. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a probability of 12.9%.
Celtic's home win is the model's selection, with a probability of 84.0%. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection, with a probability of 86.9% and a 6% edge. The model's other selection is a Home win, with a probability of 84.0% and a 6% edge.
The probabilities for the match outcome are: Celtic win 84%, draw 12%, Dundee win 4%. The suggested picks are: Over 1.5 (87%), Home win (84%), and there is no away win pick.
Celtic's 1-0 win extends their run of five consecutive victories, with this latest triumph coming against Dundee. The final score was well short of the expected 3.5 goals, with the most likely outcome being a 3-0 Celtic victory, which held a probability of 22%. The model's selection, Home win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 84%. The model's call was also in line with the suggested picks, with Home win being the correct prediction, holding a probability of 84%. However, the other suggested pick, Over 1.5, with a probability of 86.9%, failed to materialize.
Celtic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.93 | 1.43 | 2.06 | 1.38 | 1.79 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (4) | 1.50 | 2.25 | 1.33 | 2.33 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (26) | 2.00 | 1.31 | 2.23 | 1.15 | 1.77 | 1.46 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Dundee| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.60 | 1.73 | 1.40 | 0.67 | 1.80 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 0.94 | 1.88 | 1.38 | 1.75 | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.50 | 1.29 | 2.14 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
| Dundee goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 5.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 13% | 7.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 13% | 7.3% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 9.2% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
CelticDundeeCeltic| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.0 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 22.4 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 10.1 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 25.4 | 27.7 | 23.8 |
| vs Weaker (43) | 11.2 | 11.6 | 10.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 21.3 | 20.6 | 22.1 |
| % over line | 62% | 68% | 56% | 52% | 44% | 60% | 38% | 36% | 40% |
| % under line | 38% | 32% | 44% | 48% | 56% | 40% | 62% | 64% | 60% |
Dundee| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.9 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 22.2 | 21.5 | 22.9 |
| vs Stronger (22) | 10.0 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 21.7 | 22.7 | 20.8 |
| vs Similar (26) | 9.4 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 22.8 | 20.3 | 25.3 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 20.0 | 24.0 | 16.0 |
| % over line | 64% | 75% | 54% | 48% | 46% | 50% | 46% | 38% | 54% |
| % under line | 36% | 25% | 46% | 52% | 54% | 50% | 54% | 62% | 46% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86.9% | 1.09 | 1.12 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.10 | 1.10 | +0.8% | â Miss |
| Home win | 84.0% | 1.20 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.21 | +5.9% | â Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 03/12/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 19/10/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 05/02/25 | H | 6-0 | |
| 14/01/25 | A | 3-3 | |
| 30/10/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/04/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/02/24 | H | 7-1 |
Celtic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 04/03/26 | A | 1-2 |
Dundee| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 12/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value âŽm | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 3.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 12.5 | 100% | 1.5 | 0% | 19.0 | 50% | 154 | 55 | 38 | 60 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 66% |
| 2 |  ST Mirren | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 10.5 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 27.5 | 50% | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 46% |
| 3 |  Motherwell | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 7.5 | 50% | 4.0 | 100% | 30.0 | 100% | 21 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 58% |
| 4 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.0 | 50% | 24.5 | 100% | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 53% |
| 5 | Dundee | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 | 50% | 3.0 | 50% | 18.5 | 0% | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 44% |
| 6 |  ST Johnstone | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 4.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 8.0 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | 19.0 | 0% | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 7 |  Hibernian | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.5 | 100% | 3.0 | 50% | 25.5 | 100% | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 8 |  Aberdeen | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 100% | 24.0 | 50% | 24 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 9 |  Rangers | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 3.0 | 50% | 27.0 | 100% | 127 | 59 | 28 | 40 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 58% |
| 10 |  Falkirk | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1.0 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 | 50% | 4.0 | 100% | 34.5 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 11 |  Dundee Utd | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 12.0 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 26.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 42% |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 10.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | 20.5 | 50% | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 42% |