Celtic’s dominant home form, averaging three goals scored and only 0.38 conceded against weaker opposition, makes a home win the clear favourite, reflected in the model’s 88% probability and its pick. The opponent’s away side, Heart Of Midlothian, averages just 0.67 goals scored and 3.33 conceded when facing stronger teams, underscoring the venue weakness. The expected total of 3.4 goals aligns with the model’s 22% chance of a three-goal match, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 15.2% probability. Home win probability sits at 87.6%, draw at 10%, and away win at 2%. Suggested picks include Home win (87.6%), Over 1.5 (85.3%), Under 5.5 cards (84.9%), Over 19.5 fouls (81.0%), Over 8.5 corners (72.6%), and Under 4.5 cards (71.4%). Each selection is presented with its exact percentage and edge where noted.
Results analysis
The recent Celtic run, coming off a win, set the tone for a dominant home performance, while Hearts remained unbeaten in their last five. The model’s pre-match favourite, Home win, was backed by an 87.6% probability and proved correct as Celtic secured a 5-0 victory. The 5-0 scoreline confirmed the model’s 88%home win probability and the predicted 3-goal total, which was the most likely outcome. Every suggested pick hit: Home win (87.6%), Over 1.5 (85.3%), Under 5.5 cards (84.9%), Over 19.5 fouls (81.0%), Over 8.5 corners (72.6%), and Under 4.5 cards (71.4%). The model’s selections all delivered, underscoring its accuracy for this match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Celtic win✓ Hit
87.6%
Avg Implied 80.9% · @ 1.16
Edge
+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
9.9%
Avg Implied 13.3% · @ 7.07
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian win✗ Miss
2.5%
Avg Implied 5.8% · @ 16.20
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.60
0.60
2.86
0.50
2.38
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
2.78
0.52
3.00
0.38
2.57
0.64
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.70
1.13
1.60
0.80
1.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
2.43
1.00
1.75
0.67
3.33
vs Similar (8)
1.12
1.75
1.00
2.00
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
1.33
1.25
1.38
0.57
1.29
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.3%
Under 1.5
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.3%
@ 1.54+4.1%
Under 2.5
34.7%
@ 2.43-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.3%
Under 3.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
32.0%
No
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
15.2%
3-0
15.0%
4-0
11.1%
1-0
9.9%
5-0 ✓
6.5%
2-1
6.2%
3-1
6.1%
1-1
4.6%
Celtic goals ↓
Heart Of Midlothian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
1
9.9%
4.6%
0.8%
0.1%
0.0%
2
15%
6.2%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
3
15%
6.1%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
4
11%
4.5%
0.9%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Celtic goals (down), columns = Heart Of Midlothian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.67
Rangers
2.31
Motherwell
1.53
Aberdeen
1.50
Livingston
1.30
ST Johnstone
1.24
Hibernian
1.23
Kilmarnock
1.10
ST Mirren
0.97
Ross County
0.97
Hamilton
0.90
Heart Of Midlothian
0.77
Celtic is 1.90 points better than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of average points per game (2.67 vs 0.77).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.97
Rangers
2.21
Hibernian
1.40
Livingston
1.37
Motherwell
1.37
Aberdeen
1.33
Kilmarnock
1.03
Heart Of Midlothian
1.03
Hamilton
1.00
Ross County
0.97
ST Johnstone
0.97
ST Mirren
0.80
Celtic is 1.93 goals better than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals scored per game (2.97 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.63
Rangers
0.66
Aberdeen
1.20
Motherwell
1.27
Livingston
1.30
Kilmarnock
1.37
ST Mirren
1.37
ST Johnstone
1.59
Hibernian
1.63
Hamilton
1.67
Heart Of Midlothian
1.73
Ross County
2.00
Celtic is 1.10 goals better than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals conceded per game (0.63 vs 1.73).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Celtic
For 8.1 · Against 3.1 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 10.5 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
For 7.4 · Against 5.2 · Total 12.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.5 · Against 11.0 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celtic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.5
9.9
3.3
3.0
3.7
21.2
20.0
22.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
13.6
16.5
11.7
4.8
6.5
3.7
26.6
27.0
26.3
vs Weaker (45)
9.8
10.0
9.7
3.2
2.7
3.7
20.6
19.3
21.8
% over line
58%
60%
56%
42%
36%
48%
44%
32%
56%
% under line
42%
40%
44%
58%
64%
52%
56%
68%
44%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
11.1
9.2
4.3
4.2
4.3
27.4
26.2
28.6
vs Stronger (10)
9.9
10.3
9.2
4.1
4.5
3.5
25.4
26.2
24.2
vs Similar (14)
9.2
9.5
9.0
5.1
4.8
5.2
31.1
30.2
31.8
vs Weaker (26)
10.7
12.2
9.3
3.9
3.8
4.0
26.2
24.3
28.0
% over line
58%
68%
48%
58%
56%
60%
84%
84%
84%
% under line
42%
32%
52%
42%
44%
40%
16%
16%
16%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamilton
11.1
Ross County
10.8
Rangers
10.7
Celtic
10.2
Heart Of Midlothian
10.1
ST Mirren
10.1
Hibernian
10.0
ST Johnstone
9.7
Motherwell
9.5
Livingston
9.4
Kilmarnock
9.4
Aberdeen
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
4.3
Ross County
4.1
Rangers
3.8
Aberdeen
3.8
Hibernian
3.7
Motherwell
3.6
Kilmarnock
3.6
ST Johnstone
3.5
Celtic
3.3
ST Mirren
3.2
Hamilton
3.1
Livingston
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
27.4
Aberdeen
26.1
Hamilton
24.6
Ross County
24.3
Motherwell
24.0
Rangers
23.9
Kilmarnock
23.9
ST Johnstone
23.6
ST Mirren
23.5
Hibernian
22.9
Livingston
22.8
Celtic
21.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.9%
Under 9.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.7%
Under 3.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
67.3%
Under 21.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.30
1.00
0.29
1.38
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (27)
1.26
0.26
1.00
0.23
1.50
0.29
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.80
0.33
0.93
0.20
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.29
0.25
1.25
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (8)
0.00
0.62
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.40
vs Weaker (15)
0.40
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.30
1.86
0.21
1.00
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (27)
1.52
0.26
2.00
0.15
1.07
0.36
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.80
0.67
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.14
0.75
0.50
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (8)
1.12
1.12
1.00
1.00
1.20
1.20
vs Weaker (15)
0.53
0.67
0.75
0.62
0.29
0.71
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home win
87.6%
1.16
-
-
-
-
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celtic · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Benjamin Nygren60%
Camilo Durán40%
Callum McGregor25%
Kasper Høgh25%
Luke McCowan25%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luke McCowan25%
Colby Donovan20%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Benjamin Nygren0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Camilo Durán0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kieran Tierney40%
Benjamin Nygren40%
Yang Hyun-Jun20%
Camilo Durán20%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Camilo Durán60%
Kasper Høgh50%
Benjamin Nygren40%
Kieran Tierney0%
James Forrest0%
Callum McGregor0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
Sebastian Tounekti0%
Liam Scales0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Celtic's squad is €94m more valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€116m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Celtic's attack is €44m more valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€56m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Celtic's midfield is €16m more valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€20m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Celtic's defence is €35m more valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€41m vs €6m).
Scotland: Premiership 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Rangers
Motherwell
Aberdeen
Livingston
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
Ross County